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Forums - Gaming Discussion - CNET generation predictions

So the PS3's 5th year will be bigger than the Wii's 2nd year?



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Zucas said:
Wow that has to be one of the most improbably scenarios ever. It's as if they finally understand that the Wii is going to sell beastly but their bias won't allow them to put it at first. So they pull some PS3 sales out of their ass to just barely beat the sales. Either one is going to run away with it or not. Two can't have beastly sales like that. Market jsut isn't big enough to support it nor would brandname allow it.

And I suppose if 2 years ago a person was to predict that the Wii would, in one year, outsell Gamecube total sales, they would have been CRAZY!...............right?

and be sure to read my post 2 up from yours:)



I recommend to stop this we boycott CNE....

Oh wait, we tried that with horrible results.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

NO mztazm, they would not. If you used historical trends, you would have guessed that the Wii would sell amazing. It wasn't craziness. It was realism.

This is not. It goes against every law of console sales, and historical trends have shown that a console needs games, a low price, and media attention to spur insane sales. Wii has those three factors. PS3 does not. Do you wonder why games released on the PS3 only provide at the most minimal overall sales increase? No matter how many games are released, the PS3 stays expensive and inconvenient, and that is a big disgust in the consumer's eyes. If the PS3 does drop to the Wii's price (late 2009 at the absolute earliest), it will not affect sales enough for it to reclaim the lead, since it has had years of negative media, and a $200 price won't change the public's view.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

mztazmz said:
It's pretty much IMPOSSIBLE for us to be realistic in this thread. The analysts who came up with these figures are simply using data and market trends and any other factors they have to come up with these figures. It's based on assumptions, but I doubt these analysts are fanboys with an agenda.

We as gamers are nowhere near as realistic. Everyone in this thread favors one of the three consoles. Each one of us looks at this graph, and unless we see that our favorite console is going to wipe the floor with the other 2, we get steaming mad and start cherry picking any data we can to support our shit talking.

The only constant in the universe is CHANGE. It's funny that most of us expect the consoles to sell at exactly the same rate as now for the next few years(i.e. that the Wii will always sell like hotcakes and the PS3 will eventually pass the 360 near the end of this generation).

Do you happen to know what data and market trends analyst Billy Pidgeon used to come up with the figures in question?  I can't seem to find it in the CNET article.



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While I may prefer Nintendo's games, consoles, business strategies, and advertising, I still think I can more objectively analyze the market than the jackass who came up with this scenario.

If Nintendo wasn't winning, I would not be steaming mad and cherry picking data. I'd just be... playing my games, and telling Nintendo-haters to shut up. It's the same thing I have to do when Nintendo's winning too, actually.



Just as a demonstration:

 

 

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

America

1,322,589

8,053,768

17,680,551

25,252,458

30,906,957

37,216,703

42,621,125

Japan

3,549,355

7,120,105

11,225,787

14,508,410

17,786,057

19,961,598

21,487,036

Total Others

749,008

6,344,779

13,583,181

21,234,405

28,209,319

36,716,431

41,722,334

 

As you can see, the PS2 had a pretty steady sales rate in all three regions throughout its entire life; I think it is kind of foolish to expect a console to sell into PS2 ranges through sudden unexplained increases in sales in middle of its life.

mztazmz said:
It's pretty much IMPOSSIBLE for us to be realistic in this thread. The analysts who came up with these figures are simply using data and market trends and any other factors they have to come up with these figures. It's based on assumptions, but I doubt these analysts are fanboys with an agenda.

We as gamers are nowhere near as realistic. Everyone in this thread favors one of the three consoles. Each one of us looks at this graph, and unless we see that our favorite console is going to wipe the floor with the other 2, we get steaming mad and start cherry picking any data we can to support our shit talking.

The only constant in the universe is CHANGE. It's funny that most of us expect the consoles to sell at exactly the same rate as now for the next few years(i.e. that the Wii will always sell like hotcakes and the PS3 will eventually pass the 360 near the end of this generation).

 QFT

 

I agree with what you said.

 

Nintendo fanboys on the other hand get offended by this and want to burn the guy's house down,,,,calm down guys it's just a prediction ,,,it might be true,it might not,,,no one knows.just be happy that nintendo has sold much better than last generation and will be in a very healthy position next gen. 



 

 

 

HappySqurriel said:
narfwack said:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13772_3-9948454-52.html

 

They still believe the earlier prediction by Billy Pidgeon and even add a new chart.

 


The reason why this bothers me more than anything else is that they assume the PS3 will suddenly start selling like the Wii has been in 2009 ... The PS3 to date has seen massive price reductions, the release of the biggest game of the generation, and the victory of Blu-Ray and is still selling at less than half the rate they expect it to in 2009 and 2010. Where is the justification?

In 2009 the PS3 will still probably be $300 or more, Blu-Ray will be far from a well adopted format, Wii third party support will be exploding, and we may be in the middle of the largest worldwide ecconomic downturn in over half a century; why is the PS3 going to take off in this climate?


 everything you said here is not true.

 

PS3 had only one price cut not "massice price ReductionS"(and that casue the weekly average to go up 2-3 times) .None of the big hitters have yet arrived(fist one is the MGS4).I am not saying these will casue the PS3 to explide but I m just pointing that your argument is not right(exagerated)

 

your argument is biased ,,,how do you know nintendo third party will explode?i m not saying it won't but we won't know that for now.



 

 

 

None of the big hitters have arrived?!?!?! HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA what the hell are you smoking? What is the PS3 waiting for?

If GTA4 couldn't save it, nothing can. I recommend you use this site to look at the past sales for every MGS game and every GTA game and then go sit in the corner and think about what you've just posted here.

And FYI, Wii's 3rd party sales are higher than 360's total sales or PS3's total sales.