well i may sound optimistic but i think mgs4 will do about 300,000 to 400,000 units its first week because of the limited edition bundle with gun metal ps3 alot of die hard fans will buy it and all the other bundles will give strong mgs sales, i think there will be a lot of suprises when this game comes out because its the first aaa title that the japanese will embrace

250k is a minimum.
Probably will be 350k.
In best case near 500k(bundles + game is a masterpiece).
~800k by the end of this year.

I'll say given the comments in here it'll do roughly between 250 - 275 K. HW boost from ~10 K previous weeks to 30-35K with a lot of Gun Metal additions.

You know... this forum really should try and get more Japanese people in, that should be interesting. It would then finally be possible to get some answer on what's really going on in the Japanese market, what the consumers are thinking etc. I'm really curious about general consensus there.

The PS3 market is pretty well defined.

I think hardware boosts are going to be quite significant, and will also ride on the back of the Olympics too.

Also, there are a lot of people waiting for this game, and the advertising campaign has only just started. Definitely the biggest PS3 game in Japan to date, so let's say software at 750,000 total.

Good analysis.

I say 250k-300k firstweek and LTD 600K.

The limited PS3 bundle will raise sales.

And how much hardware will it move, in Japan, Crazzy?

Hardware:

- I think we can all agree 100,000 first week (keep in mind the supposedly 'sold out' bundle)

- Say 40,000 2nd week, then a sustained drop (30,000, 20,000, 15,000)

Software

- Obviously minimum 100,000 say 250,000-300,000 first week

-500,000-600,000 overall in Japan

100 k hardware? sorry but i think that is crazy talk i predict about 300k first week software and 40-50k hardware

 There is a limited 100k MGS4 bundle.  People expect that it will be sold out the first week for sure that's why 100k first week sales.

We will be lucky if hardware gets to 70k for MGS4.