Yep, exactly.  I only used MGS3 because it's the only one vgchartz has (newer game).  I fully expect MGS4 to sell more than the first 2, partially because of the reason you stated.

btw, guys, I'm finding this thread in several months. sieanr and Bod: feel free to do the same =)

Bod says nowhere near Halo (even though MGS1 and Halo 1 aren't far off), and sieanr says less than 4 million, closer to 3 million. Wow.

I'm going to gamestop 2 weeks after MGS launches to take a pic of how many copies they have selling for used.

 Oh, man. I forgot to consider the install base. Sorry, I guess I'm just being overly negative.

@windbane

Even TheSource is predicting 175-225k in Japan 1st week (http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=27150) which, if holds true, is going to make some people very disappointed on their expectations for MGS4, including you.

i don't think it will outsell it in its first week but i hope that it does outsell it eventually.

nono,maybe 1million first week or more but not going to hits 3million,however it will be awesome if it could be possible

NO of course not

In short, no.
It is however, a good possibility in Japan. America however, is a much different story.

I'm saying about 5 million LTD (again, about what Mario Party 8 has done, and about 3/5 of Halo 3). Feel free to quote that.

Using Halo 1 / MGS 1 as a comparison point is obviously flawed: since that time, Halo has gone up in sales, MGS down. It's like comparing SF II to Mario. One of those series has seen a significant and obvious decline since that time frame. If you think the trend for MGS is an aberration, go ahead.