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Locked: The Official NPD April 2008 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official NPD April 2008 Thread

In a way, this is sad that the NPD/VGC PS360 datas are not similar since we can't directly talk about GTA4 success as a system seller.

The expected VGC datas dont fit with the unexpected NPD datas while they were quite close the rest of the year....

Let's hope next month NPD/VGC will fit, again.



Time to Work !

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Bitmap Frogs said:
While I agree that all your stores being off has a low chance of happening, with just a 2% of direct data the chance that you have a chunk of stores off the country average screwing your estimations is higher. Historically, this site has missed many unexpected trend changes which suggests your spider sense has more of a weight on the total numbers than the direct data.

I am aware of how much of a challenge is increasing your direct coverage without the resources that come from selling a monthly report but it's clear that maybe the site team should focus more on that.

 

I agree 100% that the data would obviously be better with more sources but I don't think we do a bad job with what we get. The actual market coverage is only pretty small but it doesn't all come from one store or type of store, rather a spread which is intended to be a good sample of the market as a whole. It's not like we are taking Amazon sales, say, and using those to estimate for the whole market. We also work closely with a number of analysts and manufacturers who give us their thoughts on whether things are up or down in a particular week based on their sources who feed them snippets of top-level trends. Historically, April is a pretty slow month, and I did take factors like this into account when putting the data together, but to have seen the weekly average drop following an enormous software release is pretty illogical. Sales in the first few weeks of April were down on March for sure - our data showed the same, but the week before GTA and then GTA week itself saw large increases - MS said +54% based on their own figures (with a rise the previous week as well) and retail press releases were indicating that PS3 had an even larger increase - pretty much in line with what we had shown. Also, the 6 million GTAs sold worldwide suggests that 2.8 million in the US is too low (GTA is much bigger in US and UK than continental Europe and anywhere else - same goes for Halo).

But anyway, like I say this isn't intended as a slagging match against NPD. Inevitably people will say we need to change our data and we may well have been a little high on PSP / PS3 / 360 but I don't believe to the extent that NPD is suggesting and I believe the difference will be reversed next month which will hopefully prove my point on this. If VG Chartz is tracking a game too high or too low we will go back and adjust in the weeks we were wrong (or just across the board - drop everything by 10% or whatever) so any adjustments should correct the mistakes where they happened rather than post-correcting them in later data - which I have no proof of but suspect, looking at previous trends, that most tracking services do. What other choice do they have other than constantly release corrections, which will just confuse people and make them look bad. There will always be a degree of tweaking figures to make up for past inaccuracies - I would do it if we were in the same situation.

 



who care about ps360 .

then real winner is square enix

 

FF7CC is #11

 

 

/1 ………………Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) Take-Two*

**/2 ……………….Mario Kart (Wii) Nintendo
**/3 ……………….GTA IV (PS3) Take-Two*
4/4 ……………….Wii Play/with remote (Wii) Nintendo
1/5 ……………….Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii) Nintendo
**/6 ……………….Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (PS3) Sony
**/7 ……………….Pokemon/Explorers of Darkness (DS) Nintendo
**/8 ……………….Pokemon/Explorers of Time (DS) Nintendo
7/9 ……………….Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii) Activision
9/10 ……………….Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (360) Activision*
6/11 ……………….Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII (PSP) Square Enix
2/12 ……………….Rainbow Six: Vegas 2 (Xbox 360) Ubisoft*
20/13 ………………..Naruto: Ultimate Ninja 3 (PS2) Namco Bandai
19/14 ………………..Game Party (Wii) Midway
14/15 ………………..Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (PS2) Activision*
18/16 ………………..New Super Mario Bros. (DS) Nintendo
**/17 ………………..Mario Kart (DS) Nintendo
**/18 ………………..Rock Band (Xbox 360) MTV/Electronic Arts*
13/19 ………………..Mario Party (DS) Nintendo

**/20 ……………….Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) Nintendo

 

 

 

500k confirmed for us  



To those who say these numbers can't be right don't underestimate the brilliance of Nintendo three pronged first half of 2008 strategy. They took GTA IV seriously as a threat, and responed by releasing their three biggest games of the year in a three month period spanning just before and after GTA IV's release. Smash Bros Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, and WiiFit are coming home for the Wii. They aren't stopping GTA IV from having massive numbers, but they are attracting many to the Wii who might have otherwise went for a PS3 or 360. I think you'll see the bigger system selling effect of GTA IV in May, but both systems will still be trailing the Wii by a wide margin due to Nintendo's big three scortched earth strategy.



Well Gamestop themselves say the number aren't right.
They claim hardware sales doubled the week GTA4 was released.
And they aren't estimating based on random sample data like NPD, they know exactly how many units they sold...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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Ail said:
Well Gamestop themselves say the number aren't right.
They claim hardware sales doubled the week GTA4 was released.
And they aren't estimating based on random sample data like NPD, they know exactly how many units they sold...

You created your own thread and then posted this here?

As people have said (in the thread about this) nothing Gamestop said actually contradicts what NPD said ...



Ail said:
Well Gamestop themselves say the number aren't right.
They claim hardware sales doubled the week GTA4 was released.
And they aren't estimating based on random sample data like NPD, they know exactly how many units they sold...

And how do they know what the vast, non-Gamestop majority of retailers sold?



Gamestop statement is fairly consistent with the NPD results.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=26962