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Locked: The Official NPD April 2008 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official NPD April 2008 Thread

bigjon said:
The only number I feel NDP got right was the Wii HW. They were too low PS360, I think this proves that they were too high in the Past, and they do adjust their numbers, they just add or sumbtract from the next month.

About the GTA4 numbers, is it possible that the 6 million number could be shipped? I do remember seeing massive stock sitting on store shelves the days after launch. Because that would make sense, 5 million sold to customers six million sold to retail (massive stock on store shelves). I have to beleive the GTA number more than the others since we cant say that they were "adjusting", however I would not be suprised if GTA4 "seems" to have good legs in may(small drop because of NDP adjustment).

The MKWii number feels good, could be a tad low(on VGC). I think the SSBB number is trash.

Remember last month when VGC was 1 million or so low for SSBB? Maybe it was more like at the most.... Now NDP is "adjusting" - So basically if ioi calibrates SSBB to a lower scale he will begin undertracking.

VGC should take the 200k "overtrack from this month" and reverse the 200k of the adjustments for last month.

peace.

Dude, are you aware they have direct data from around 60% of the market? Their margin of error is max. 5% - if it somehow their whole staff stimated the remaining 40% (which btw, is mostly from wal-mart and they have historical data on walmart) while drunk driving at 150mph on the wrong side of the road, they might be at a 7-10% margin of error.

They didn't "get anything wrong" - that's the state of things in the USA, and that's it.

@the source: your estimations are off as much as 50% on hardware and 84% on software - while the average might be lower, the data is unreliable as we can't predict on which titles/consoles you'll be way off. I'm very happy for the existence of vgchartz but it's clear you guys *need* to increase your direct data. The 2% you have now is clearly not enough.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

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TWRoO said:
makingmusic476 said:
The ps3/360 numbers make no sense whatsoever. I wasn't expecting hardware numbers to rise much with GTAIV, but for them to go DOWN? Wtf? And in GTA's biggest territory? European numbers spiked considerably with GTAIV, according to VGChartz and more "official" sources (ChartTrack), so why would the opposite happen in the US?

ioi's numbers seem much more accurate than NPD's in this instance, and I can't help but think that NPD screwed something up here.

My thought's exactly.

Is it possible NPD has not included GTA bundles? so people buying the hardware bundle with GTA were not counted at all (usually NPD would not count it as a software sale but it should still be hardware)

I saw something about the Canadian numbers somewhere which had the soaftware seperated into 4 parts for GTAIV, with the normal version (for each console) and the special edition (for each console)


What bundle are you talking about? The non-existant GTA bundles that were never sold in the USA? GTA bundles were sold in Europe and Australia, but not the US. NPD only covers the USA (and Canada which is released separately), in other words North America. Bundles sold abroad have no relevance to NPD numbers.


starcraft: "I and every PS3 fanboy alive are waiting for Versus more than FFXIII.
Me since the games were revealed, the fanboys since E3."

Skeeuk: "playstation 3 is the ultimate in gaming acceleration"

Something that caught my attention this morning. Dozens of analysts, supposition suppliers and part time fortune tellers at the quickie mart are suggesting that the hardware boom from GTAIV will make an appearance in May as opposed to April.

Now on the surface, just below the first epidermal layer, is a level of plausibility since GTAIV only had 5 days of tracking in the retail period but will obviously have several weeks worth for NPD May.

So what's the problem? I'm hungry and it's lunch time but aside from that, I've never seen a system seller not have an impact during its release month even with just 5 days or data. Go take a look at some big name late month release titles and compare their NPD.

But just for the sake of argument, let's say all those wanting to buy a PS360 (above normal demand) decided to wait arbitrarily until after May 3rd to make their purchase. How does one come to this assumption? What factors suggest that people are waiting until a week after launch to buy their console? This is the most front loaded, or hyped, game in history so you'd think the largest uptake in consoles would be the first week.

Software launch sales, hardware launch sales, opening week for movies, etc....week one typically carries a huge % of sales across the next several weeks. What makes GTAIV such the oddity? What suggest GTAIV is going against the grains of logical sales trends?

Now try applying this same gamers-will-arbitrarily-wait-to-buy-console theory on MKWii. Yep, sounds right silly to think would be Wii owners decided to wait until after May 3rd to pick up their console (outside of simply not finding any in stock, of course).

Ah such is the life of those-who-are-paid-to-give-us-their-opinions.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Viper1 said:
Something that caught my attention this morning. Dozens of analysts, supposition suppliers and part time fortune tellers at the quickie mart are suggesting that the hardware boom from GTAIV will make an appearance in May as opposed to April.

Now on the surface, just below the first epidermal layer, is a level of plausibility since GTAIV only had 5 days of tracking in the retail period but will obviously have several weeks worth for NPD May.

So what's the problem? I'm hungry and it's lunch time but aside from that, I've never seen a system seller not have an impact during its release month even with just 5 days or data. Go take a look at some big name late month release titles and compare their NPD.

But just for the sake of argument, let's say all those wanting to buy a PS360 (above normal demand) decided to wait arbitrarily until after May 3rd to make their purchase. How does one come to this assumption? What factors suggest that people are waiting until a week after launch to buy their console? This is the most front loaded, or hyped, game in history so you'd think the largest uptake in consoles would be the first week.

Software launch sales, hardware launch sales, opening week for movies, etc....week one typically carries a huge % of sales across the next several weeks. What makes GTAIV such the oddity? What suggest GTAIV is going against the grains of logical sales trends?

Now try applying this same gamers-will-arbitrarily-wait-to-buy-console theory on MKWii. Yep, sounds right silly to think would be Wii owners decided to wait until after May 3rd to pick up their console (outside of simply not finding any in stock, of course).

Ah such is the life of those-who-are-paid-to-give-us-their-opinions.


I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that a lot of bloggers and analysts are using this approach in a desperate effort to save face; they spent a lot of April 'bashing' the Wii and claimed that Grand Theft Auto 4 was going to be the second comming, and now are trying to buy time before people completely ignore them. If they're successful, in the middle of June (when the May NPD numbers come out) the 'failure' of GTA4 to sell HD consoles will be old news and they will move onto claiming that people were holding off for the Metal Gear Solid 4 bundle.



Xiru said:
Kenology said:
RolStoppable said:
This means we are in for another furious anti-Wii month?

They'll be too busy eating their crow to say much after last month's fiasco. Though I do hope to hear more Wii Doomsday, there's not much they can say when Wii sold so much in the face of GTAIV and Mario Kart beat PS3 GTAIV.

If they do decide to hate, it'd be fun to watch.


I'll bite, Wii is not doomed but I will point out that its best selling titles are old franchises that were available on most Nintendo systems before it. Wii will sustain just like the Gamecube did. 1st party all the way. Until we start seeing some big 3rd party games in the top 20, developers will be dubious toward making big titles for the Wii. Wii is a phenominal seller, the best in gaming history, but 3rd parties still prefer 360/PS3. I don't see this changing anytime soon. Also, Wii has 2.5x the install base of the PS3 and MK barely outsold GTA4.


 Have you ever considered employment at Fox News? You could probably make a lot of money spninng the news. If the Wii were headed the same way as the Gamecube, it wouldn't have already surpassed it in sales. The big third party titles are on the way and some, like M&S, have already done really well. 



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HappySqurriel said:
Viper1 said:
Something that caught my attention this morning. Dozens of analysts, supposition suppliers and part time fortune tellers at the quickie mart are suggesting that the hardware boom from GTAIV will make an appearance in May as opposed to April.

Now on the surface, just below the first epidermal layer, is a level of plausibility since GTAIV only had 5 days of tracking in the retail period but will obviously have several weeks worth for NPD May.

So what's the problem? I'm hungry and it's lunch time but aside from that, I've never seen a system seller not have an impact during its release month even with just 5 days or data. Go take a look at some big name late month release titles and compare their NPD.

But just for the sake of argument, let's say all those wanting to buy a PS360 (above normal demand) decided to wait arbitrarily until after May 3rd to make their purchase. How does one come to this assumption? What factors suggest that people are waiting until a week after launch to buy their console? This is the most front loaded, or hyped, game in history so you'd think the largest uptake in consoles would be the first week.

Software launch sales, hardware launch sales, opening week for movies, etc....week one typically carries a huge % of sales across the next several weeks. What makes GTAIV such the oddity? What suggest GTAIV is going against the grains of logical sales trends?

Now try applying this same gamers-will-arbitrarily-wait-to-buy-console theory on MKWii. Yep, sounds right silly to think would be Wii owners decided to wait until after May 3rd to pick up their console (outside of simply not finding any in stock, of course).

Ah such is the life of those-who-are-paid-to-give-us-their-opinions.


I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that a lot of bloggers and analysts are using this approach in a desperate effort to save face; they spent a lot of April 'bashing' the Wii and claimed that Grand Theft Auto 4 was going to be the second comming, and now are trying to buy time before people completely ignore them. If they're successful, in the middle of June (when the May NPD numbers come out) the 'failure' of GTA4 to sell HD consoles will be old news and they will move onto claiming that people were holding off for the Metal Gear Solid 4 bundle.

Agreed.   That carpet is sure going to be lumpy soon with everything they sweep under there....facts, logic, reason, some poor Wii fan who unfortunately happened to be walking by.

 



The rEVOLution is not being televised

O.o

O-oh my... I didn't see this coming (I mean I did but...). I mean, just wow.

Does Not Compute! Gah!



Eh... on second thought... I don't mind the numbers too much. As someone somewhere once said, Nintendomination! (Or some other clever play on word usage that eludes my thought process at the moment)



wow Vgchartz really burns this month.



smbu2000 said:
TWRoO said:
makingmusic476 said:
The ps3/360 numbers make no sense whatsoever. I wasn't expecting hardware numbers to rise much with GTAIV, but for them to go DOWN? Wtf? And in GTA's biggest territory? European numbers spiked considerably with GTAIV, according to VGChartz and more "official" sources (ChartTrack), so why would the opposite happen in the US?

ioi's numbers seem much more accurate than NPD's in this instance, and I can't help but think that NPD screwed something up here.

My thought's exactly.

Is it possible NPD has not included GTA bundles? so people buying the hardware bundle with GTA were not counted at all (usually NPD would not count it as a software sale but it should still be hardware)

I saw something about the Canadian numbers somewhere which had the soaftware seperated into 4 parts for GTAIV, with the normal version (for each console) and the special edition (for each console)


What bundle are you talking about? The non-existant GTA bundles that were never sold in the USA? GTA bundles were sold in Europe and Australia, but not the US. NPD only covers the USA (and Canada which is released separately), in other words North America. Bundles sold abroad have no relevance to NPD numbers.

 Oh, so were special editions not bundles then? (they were on the Canadian info in a thread I can't find)

I assumed they were, but now I remember Halo 3 had some silly special editions that included a hat or something.



cctaximan said:
Wow! Both the 360 and the PS3 HW sales went down. I guess we must be in a recession here in America. All the casual gamers chose the cheapest console the wii and everyone who was interested in buying GTAIV must of already owned a 360/PS3. I wonder if microsoft did that 100 dollar price cut in the NA market that everybody was predicting that they would one month before the GTAIV release would it had made any difference?

I hate to risk puncturing your misconception but:

1) The whole casual thing is crap (opinion)

2) Pricing is NOT a factor (fact). Taking two of the largest retail souces it is apparent that platform price has essentially reached parity.

Gamestop

Wii                   $399.99 NEW (with required bundle)   Used: Not Available
Xbox 360         $349.99 NEW                                       Used: $199.99
PS3                  $399.99 NEW                                       Used: $349.99

Or Amazon.com

Wii                    $340.50 NEW (with required bundle)  Used: $309.50
Xbox 360         $349.99 NEW                                       Used: $265.95
PS3                  $399.99 NEW                                       Used: $330.99