It began in the North American sales thread.

The declaration that it is all over for the Xbox 360.  The notion that it is all downhill from here, and nothing Microsoft can do will stop the imminent decline.  But it culminated in DMeisterJ's thread where he vehemenently declared that GTAIV, far from helping the Xbox 360, is the standard we will look back on and associate with the console's death.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=25845

I want to examine GTAIV for a moment, because an understanding of what this game represents is critical to understanding the fact that this week just gone, Sony lost more consumers than it has in any other week since the generation began.  Thats right, Sony LOST CONSUMERS!  For weeks now, Sony fans have been highlighting the close association GTA has with the Playstation brand, and inadvertedely showing us that this week gone was never Microsoft's to win, it was always Sony's to lose.  But Microsoft DID win, and Sony DID lose.  Read on.

IT is largely only in retrospect that Sony fans have started to say "this is their (Microsoft's) game" (thats a direct quote from DMeisterJ, link at the bottom), in an effort to try and diminish what Microsoft achieved through GTAIV's launch.  To understand what Microsoft wanted to do this week, examine this post of mine made well BEFORE the numbers came in:

"Given what happened with DMC4, anyone expecting a 3 to 1 ratio of sales in the USA is doomed to disappointment. What Microsoft needs to do is secure a few hundred thousand PS2 owners over the next couple of months, and then more at the end of the year with DLC. If they do that, they'll consider it a victory."

The PS2 userbase.  Thats what this entire generation is about.  This week gone, Sony lost some of it, Microsoft gained some of it, and Nintendo gained a tonne of it.  100,000 people bought Xbox 360's this week gone for GTAIV (extrapoloted based on the difference in sales WW week-over-week).  The vast majority of those peopl were PS2 owners.  Think about that for a moment.  100,000 of the kind of people that only buy one console per generation will, from this moment on, be purchasing games for a Microsoft console (the console sales themselves will already have given Microsoft a profit off these new customers) INSTEAD of a Sony console.  

It is true that more people bought PS3's this week gone for GTAIV than bought Xbox 360's, but the PS3 is sold either at a loss or at a smaller profit than the Xbox 360 for Sony, and as Sony fans have been kind enough to point out, they were ALREADY Sony customers.  But 100,000 people left Sony for Microsoft this week, and as many as 300,000 left Sony for Nintendo.  The earliest time Sony will have to recapture most of these consumers is five years from now.  Thats FIVE years from now when we are a couple of years into the next generation.

Moving more specifically to address DMeisterJ's comments, we can see that the Xbox 360 is continuing it's trend of selling more than last year, even before GTAIV's launch.  It is currently the most profitable High-Definition console in existence, and it has a more expansive, diverse and quality-filled library than the PS3 (according to Gamerankings.com).  It actually has MORE big sequels coming this year than the PS3 (Fable 2, Banjo Kazooie 3, Ninja Gaiden 2 and Gears of War 2 vs MGS4 and Resistence 2) and it is incredibly difficult to argue objectively that one console has better looking new games than the other.

Futhermore, Microsoft has significantly more leverage to cut prices than Sony does, suggesting that by the end of the year, the console will be approaching mass market prices, such as the $US199 point where the PS2 did the majority of it's business.  Many people often fail to realize that whenever a PS2 owner buys an Xbox 360, Sony normally loses a customer and future revenue, whilst Microsoft gains a customer and future revenue.  

DMeisterJ attempted to change his thread to specify that it referred only to hardware (which as I have shown, is clearly not beginning to end) but not before qualifying software discussion with this comment:

"Ahh...

360's last stand, software.

What's next? Revenue? LULZ"

However,  given the business models of both Sony and Microsoft call for early hardware losses to be recovered on software sales, I'd think the fact the Xbox 360 continues to have enormous software sales and just substantially outsold Sony on a Playstation associated franchis is arguably the most significant factor for us to examine.  Indeed, software is the crux of Microsoft's argument, because it demonstrates a continued ability for the platform to gain software titles based on its own merits.

It is likely that the PS3 will eventually outsell the Xbox 360, but the chances of it outselling the Microsoft console to the point that it gains and exclusives it wouldn't already have had due to Sony wheeling and dealing are non-existant, as are the chances it will outsell the Xbox 360 by a significant enough number to outlast it's lifespan for any meaningfull amount of time.

Thanks for reading.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=25571

*Sigh*

So you're suggesting that someone couldn't buy both a PS3 and Xbox 360?

you think this somehow doesn't show desperation? if the 360's sales were really secure there would be no reason to make this thread, now would there? sounds like you have something to prove.

but, as usual, this is pretty much fanboy BS with very few solid facts and a whole lotta spin. face it starcraft, the 360 IS in trouble.

Actually I think I used word's like "most" to highlight that I wasn't making universally applicable statements.

In any case, you've clearly avoided dealing with the substantive matter of my post.

Why?  Would you suggest that "most" PS3 or Xbox 360 owners will buy the other console? 

I'm a new member to this site but I have been reading this place for a good 6 months now. Starcraft is one of the most amusing posters :) I mean a little illogical but amusing all the same :)

Release the straws, because it doesn't matter who wins at the end of the day. Its about having fun :) 

I've avoided dealing with the substantive matter of your post because you've been talking about the same thing for weeks now.

And most implies the majority. 

oh geez... knew something was missing.

This thread is full of win.

It does indeed imply the majority.  The majority of the 100,000 PS2 owners that bought a 360 this week gone for GTAIV will not buy a PS3.  People like you and me that frequent gaming forums are not in the majority (unfortunately).

A lot of what is in my post was a very reasonable response to what DMeisterJ and others have been saying.  If you really do not wish to respond, could you take care of the trolling that has already begun in this thread to clear the way for others to respond?

Thanks.