Across 5 Mario Kart games, not including the recently release MKWii, the series averaged 8.26 million per game. MKWii broke all first day sales records for the Mario Kart series so there is a very real chance it will sell 10 million units.

I make my list after E3

I still believe that Mario Galaxy will end up as the top-selling standalone Wii game at the end of this generation. Mario Kart would probably have the best chance of passing it. As you can see from looking at the weekly charts, Mario games sell in ridiculous amounts LONG after their release dates. Games like Brawl and Zelda simply don't have the same mass market appeal. (Yes, Brawl is tracking far above Galaxy at the moment - but that's because it's a much more frontloaded series.)

There's also essentially nil chance that any Zelda game will reach 10m in sales. None of the previous Zelda games have ever come even close to that mark. It's yet another series that isn't (quite) as big as video game fans seem to think.

Wii Fit will be the best selling game for the Wii. I see a minimum of 20 million. It will have ridiculous legs.

Funniest thing I ever read.

I think Brawl already passed 10 million, Its severely undertracked...

The Wii has a larger base because of new gamers, certainly, but it has the momentum now to court every kind of gamer, including current gamers who didn't previously own a Nintendo console, and lapsed gamers who may remember the characters from long ago. Plus, Smash is easy enough that the new gamers who really get sucked in to gaming could pick it up.

The best case in point is Mario Kart DS. It is now the best-selling Mario Kart ever, despite the fact that Mario Kart Advance was the worst selling one, and DS has not yet passed GBA in sales. Plus NSMB is going to outsell SMB3, Animal Crossing on DS has sold several times what it did on GC, Pokemon D/P is going to break the downward sales trend for Pokemon games, Mario Galaxy has already just about caught Mario Sunshine in sales, etc.

And considering Brawl is already half way to 10M before even launching in Europe, where it should add 2-3M sales, I think 10M is a lock for Brawl.

Its practically a lock for Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii, too, which are having highly impressive launches even though they should be long tail games. And I don't understand the doubt around Mario Galaxy, either. It won't be like Halo 3, where a game like COD4 can come along, garner better word of mouth, and devour its long tail sales.

A couple games I think will reach 5M with long tails are Link's Crossbow Training and Big Brain Academy. Compare with BBA DS, which has recently reached 5M shipped:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Big+Brain+Academy+-+DS&reg2=All&game2=Big+Brain+Academy%3A+Wii+Degree+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=Link%27s+Crossbow+Training+-+Wii&weeks=100

Can't believe I'm having to post this link again since I posted it in the second post of this thread.

But since I have the feeling you won't click it, I'll just post the relevant portion.

 GC to Wii:

Super Smash Bros. Melee - 7.08 million
Super Smash Bros Brawl - 4.90 million

Super Mario Galaxy - 6.48 million
Super Mario Sunshine - 6.28 million

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 4.90 million
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 4.38 million
Link's Crossbow Training - 1.65 million
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess - 1.56 million
The Legend of Zelda: The Four Swords - ?

Metroid Prime - 2.83 million
Metroid Prime 3: Corruption - 1.32 million
Metroid Prime 2: Echoes - 1.28 million

Mario Party 8 - 5.12 million
Mario Party 4 - 2.47 million
Mario Party 5 - 2.08 million
Mario Party 6 - 1.63 million
Mario Party 7 - 1.49 million

Super Paper Mario - 2.31 million
Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door - 2.05 million

Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition - 1.75 million
Resident Evil 4 - 1.69 million
Resident Evil - 1.40 million
Resident Evil 0 - 1.26 million
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles - 1.16 million
Resident Evil 2 - ?
Resident Evil 3 - ?
Resident Evil: Code Veronica X - ?

Mario Strikers Charged - 1.59 million
Super Mario Strikers - 1.58 million

Rayman Raving Rabbids - 1.32 million
Rayman Raving Rabbids 2 - 1.05 million
Rayman 3: Hoodlum - ?
Rayman Arena - ?

Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games - 4.03 million
Sonic Adventure 2 Battle - 2.49 million
Sonic Mega Collection - 1.93 million
Sonic Heroes - 1.46 million
Sonic and the Secret Rings - 1.27 million
Sonic Adventure DX - 1.12 million
Sonic Riders - 0.55 million
Sonic Riders: Zero Gravity - 0.27 million
Sonic Gems Collection - ?

Lego Star Wars: The Complete Saga - 1.12 million
Lego Star Wars - 0.98 million
Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy - 0.68 million

10 million
SSBB
MKwii
new AC
wii music
wii fit
SMG


5 million
Zelda TP
MP8
M&S