No game is going to make 10 mill on the wii, well maybe SMG. i wouldnt even count wii play and wii sports since they are packed into hardware in most places
So are you going to say that the Gamecube versions of Brawl and Mario Kart will have more units sold than the Wii versions, despite the Wii probably ended up with more than 3x the installed base of the gamecube and also a longer life time?
melee was GC best selling game and it only sold 7 million. i dont see it getting to 10 mill. the wii has a larger base because of casuals.
The Wii has a larger base because of new gamers, certainly, but it has the momentum now to court every kind of gamer, including current gamers who didn't previously own a Nintendo console, and lapsed gamers who may remember the characters from long ago. Plus, Smash is easy enough that the new gamers who really get sucked in to gaming could pick it up.
The best case in point is Mario Kart DS. It is now the best-selling Mario Kart ever, despite the fact that Mario Kart Advance was the worst selling one, and DS has not yet passed GBA in sales. Plus NSMB is going to outsell SMB3, Animal Crossing on DS has sold several times what it did on GC, Pokemon D/P is going to break the downward sales trend for Pokemon games, Mario Galaxy has already just about caught Mario Sunshine in sales, etc.
And considering Brawl is already half way to 10M before even launching in Europe, where it should add 2-3M sales, I think 10M is a lock for Brawl.
Its practically a lock for Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii, too, which are having highly impressive launches even though they should be long tail games. And I don't understand the doubt around Mario Galaxy, either. It won't be like Halo 3, where a game like COD4 can come along, garner better word of mouth, and devour its long tail sales.
A couple games I think will reach 5M with long tails are Link's Crossbow Training and Big Brain Academy. Compare with BBA DS, which has recently reached 5M shipped: