Doomsday: What would it take for Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft to be knocked out of the console hardware market? I feel like Sony would leave if it lost 5 billion or so in a generation. Nintendo would leave if hardware forced it to post 'losses' for the first time ever for a fiscal year, diminshing the 7 billion dollar war chest. Microsoft would leave only if its technologies became far too expensive in an era of declining Windows and PC software importance. Trends: Why is it that no company has remained the head honcho for more than a decade? Consider the reigns of the companies... (USA) Atari 1973-1983 1984 - The Great Crash. Nintendo 1985-1995 Sony 1996-2006 If the patten holds true, the newest challenger will rise to the top for a while... Microsoft 2007-2017? My theory is that the public is only satisfied with a product for about 5 years. However, this satisfaction peaks in the middle five years. The 2.5 years at each end of the 10 year cycle is transitional. For instance, Nintendo was still making inroads in 1985-1987 because of Atari's name recognition. In the early and mid 90's Sega and Sony began eating away at Nintendo's peak. I feel like in the last 2-3 years both Nintendo and Microsoft have gotten stronger and are eating at Sony's domination. This would make 2007 the year when Microsoft usurps Sony in the West, and Nintendo regains most of its 80's stature in Japan.

Nice post, and I agree with some of what you are saying. The videogame industry seems to be really quite fickle - companies can fall as quickly as they rise. Nintendo started to show signs of weakness in 94-95; the Playstation and Saturn were out and picking up decent sales and Nintendo just sat back and kept delaying the N64. They avoided the more sensible option for storage media and retained the expensive and restrictive cartridges, finally entering in 96 with a fantastic machine and some of the best games ever but having lost a huge amount of mindshare to Sony which they just couldn't make up. This all started of course with the Genesis / Mega Drive which gave SNES a good run for its money in the west. Signs seem to be pointing towards a similar fate now - an expensive machine, later launch, loss of many exclusive titles, an arrogance towards gamers and developers; can Microsoft come out on top this gen? I think they can.