Locked: Predictions - When Will PS3 overtake 360 WW?

Staude

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Staude on 03 May 2008

Hmm... i wanna say Q4 08... even though it's a bit optimistic.. I'm gonna go with q1 09.

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OverDrivve on 07 May 2008

Put me down for Q4 2008

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PooperScooper on 07 May 2008

ya know the people who say "oh its going to take 7 years for the ps3 to catch up at this rate" well i'd just like to cherry pick and say "its going to take the ps3 a year and 4 months at this rate"

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OverDrivve on 07 May 2008

from looking at the chartz, i think the PS3 will overtake the 360 in europe within at least 2 months from now

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Viper1 on 07 May 2008

Um, Pooper...I don't you know what cherry picking means.

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PooperScooper on 07 May 2008

Viper1 said:
Um, Pooper...I don't you know what cherry picking means.

it means taking data that only supports your idea as facts and ignoring everything that goes against your data.

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Viper1 on 07 May 2008

Well, you've got the definition largely correct but your post wasn't cherry picking. With cherry picking, you're using minor bits of data to back up your point but you didn't post any data to support your prediction.

I know this is petty and pointless, it's just your post looks off without the cherry picked supporting data.

Bah, don't even worry about it. It's late and it just caught my eye.

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Squilliam on 07 May 2008

Dunno, between q3 2009 - never I would say but my best range is probably Holiday season 2009/10

Tease.

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CrazzyMan on 08 May 2008

Just some thoughts. =)

If we take NPD NA numbers + VG Europe and VG Japan.
Then, ps3 is only 5,6 mln. behind x360 after 18 weeks of 2008.
After 18 weeks of 2008, ps3 was outselling x360 by 50k on average per week.

Console

PS3

X360

Total

3,579,048

2,690,772

At 50k rate, it would take 112 weeks or 2 years from now.
BUT, PS3 will get some big games releases like MGS4, GT5, FFXIII, FFXIIIv(?), R2, KZ2, M2, T6, G3, GoW3, 8days, Wardevil, Infamous, LBP, WKS and etc.
Also x3560 will get some big games like Fable2, Geow2, NG2(?), Too human, Banjoo3, halo wars. And probably only Fable 2 may increase x360 numbers.

So till the end of this year, 34 weeks left. In last 12 weeks of 2001 PS2 did 7,5 mln. WW. But games like FFX, GT3, MGS2, GTA3 were already released. Next 22 weeks with 50k on average will bring only 1,1 mln. So, to outsell x360 by 4,5 mln. in last 12 weeks, x360 must sell maximum 3 mln. But x360 did around 4 mln. in last 12 weeks of 2007, so most like PS3 will outsell x360 in 1Q 2009. =)

Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.

Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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ToastyJaguar on 08 May 2008

dsoverpsp said:

Machina-AX said:

ToastyJaguar said:
It will take a long time for the PS3 to catch up, i don't think it will happen next year, but possibly by the end of 2010. Even then, i think both consoles will finish this gen with an equal amount of units sold.

Want me to put you down for Q4 2010 or never then? If you want to be put down for anything that is.

put him down as never lol

lol end of 2010 then.

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