the PS3 is only up by maybe 50K a month(on the 360), so $600K / year...... Sooooooooo 4 years from now, if things stay constant. MS would have to do something stupid to loose. By then wii will probably have new systems and won't really care. Must remember, just by looking at the Advertizment and Bundles, MS is fighting for their lives. Sony in their stupid wisdom doesn't seem to do anything. No Advertisment, no bundles.
You are not that good at maths ?
50k A WEEK per month its 200k per year its 2.4 Million. But like alwys peole forget that 50% of the sales are made between october-december.
Xbox360 peak year 2008: 10.8 million.
Xbox 360 2009 10.2 Million.
PS3 2009 12.7 Million.
Xbox is DOWN even more this year it would sell maybe 9-9.5 Million if the trend continous.
PS3 would sell 14.5-15 Million IF the trend continous
Lets say Natal is a huge huge success and sells 2 Million additional 360 consoles after its launch (X360 would be almost on wii levels).
Lets say 11 Mio for 360 higher then its highest and the trend clearly shows down thats optimistic.
PS3 lets say arc is medioce succesful and sells not more consoles and ,lets say PS3 stays flat in the last months GT5 and so on make sure PS3 sells like last year (even though trend shows up.) Lets say just 14,5 Million for PS3 which is absolutely possible and not unlikely. gap would be down to 3 Million if we take your prediciton gap would be down to 3.6 Million. It could very well be that the gap will be way smaller. Because unit 360 sold less then last year has to be sold more after natal launch even to stay flat it needs a record breaking christmas.
PS3s future looks bright at the moment, I dont think there are many peole which doubt that.
Ofcourse natal Slim 360 and pricecut can turn all around. But also, Arc/Pricecut/Gt5. Everything can happen. But it needs a whole lot of effort and 360 has to be better then ever before. Probably nothing will happen because all actions from Sony or MS will counter each other. That means 2011 will PS3 outsell 360. Even with MS gaining ground it would happen.