I think halil23 is right

The longevity of a platform is driven by its success rather than the whims of console manufacturers. Indeed, it would make sense to keep a platform alive for as long as possible, but notice that the most succesful platforms in their respective generations are the most long lasting (NES, Gameboy, SNES, PS1, PS2), while those that are less successful are relatively short lived (Saturn, Dreamcast, Xbox 1). Sure, Sony may be known for the long life of their systems, but to be fair, they are in an unfamiliar position this time around.

i think 360 will do about 40 million.

@Xponent I was basing the PS3's longevity on Sony's persistent claim to it having a "10 year life cycle." While it might not look successful now, especially when comparing LTD of it and its closent competitor, the Xbox 360, it's still selling faster than the 360 and much like the PS2 did for DVD, the PS3 will push the blu-ray format. Also, Sony is soon to cover all entertainment distribution by releasing their video download service this summer, which will bring extra revenue from digital downloads. Yes, the console had a rough start but it's picking up and Sony will be breaking even sometime this year on production costs, even before its 2nd anniversary. I'm no analyst, but based on Sony's decisions lately and with the success of their format, they will be keeping this system around a long time.

Well I take it you agree with me, since you're implying that the PS3's longevity is very much dependent on its ongoing success as a multimedia hub. So no matter how persistent Sony's claims to a ten year lifecycle may be, the market will eventually decide it's fortune.

I'm still not convinced by the analogy of the PS3/Blu Ray and the PS2/DVD though, because in the case of DVD, the VHS format was well past it use by date. Furthermore, Blu Ray is more complicated, less noob friendly and requires updated televisions, all of which were not limiting factors to mass market DVD uptake. I just don't see the PS3 lasting quite as long as it's massively succesful precursors.

@Xponent I would say in most cases that commercial success dictates longevity, however, in the case of Microsoft and their combined losses of Xbox and 360 losing...what is it? Over $6 billion dollars at this point? That would kill a lesser company. I disagree that the PS3 will stick around based on its multimedia capabilities, either, but I will admit that it (and the PS2) was the wheelchair that pulled Sony through such a rough first year. The games are finally coming and will continue to come even into 2009 (which will be a much stronger year considering the titles lined up for it) and the sales from blu-ray media and digital downloads will turn it into a very profitable venture for Sony as a whole. I agree that the blu-ray won't be comparatively as successful as DVD's triumph over the VHS, but it will be the main entertainment medium for the next 10 years until bandwidth restrictions are changed in a way that digital downloads are more sensible and less costly (ISP service charges) as a replacement.

I think it will hit 40 million and then lose it's gas after that. PS3 I believe then is going to start showing some light as the software that was supposed to be out, begins to take its course. And the Wii will continue its success because of it's cheaper price tag and its unique gameplay experience.

 You think it's going to sell 80 million minimum, sorry but that's just stupid.

if saying ps3 is going to hit 80 milion, i will say 360 will hit 79.99 milions...