That's to conservative an estimate for my liking.

Hmmm, so 11 days worth of sales? Well AC games usually rely on huge legs rather than huge FW sales, even though this time around it seems to have massive initial anticipation. For this reason, i'm inclined to lean towards the lower scale of initial expectations. Not that i don't think it won't eventually end up with massive LT sales. I would say 2.8m in Japan first quarter and 5.2-5.5m WW.

LT i would say 18-22m WW though

Was hoping to pick it up for my step daughter today as an Easter gift but my local Best Buy and Walmart didn't get any stock. We have some shipment delays in NS, Canada due to Corona.

I got no clue. There are too many variables. Can people buy a Switch to play it? Will stores even be open for the game to be available? If so, then in which countries? What percentage of lost physical sales will show up as digital sales? I've got no clue.

Long term, I'm sure the game will be the best selling Animal Crossing yet. Short term? I really don't know.

I tend not to get overly excited with my predictions. Always the pessimist! But in the end, if it sells more, then there’s something to be excited about!

7 million. I'm pretty sure digital purchases will outsell physical at least 2 to 1. I get almost all my Switch games physically, but COVID-19 swayed me to buying Animal Crossing digitally.

7 million in the first 11 days alone seems pretty likely. 15 million lifetime is guaranteed. 20 million or more is likely.

I have no actual social life ;o;
I'm just basing this off of the rush of people on my social media showing off their new switches with AC. ...and my few actual friends who I've been pestering to get a Switch for years suddenly telling me to add them and visit their island (actually so happy).

If the massive UK launch is repeated across the rest of the world (and I think it's almost certain that it will be) then I'm confident that my 25m LT guess will be crossed easily. AC is the best game for these uncertain times.

1.633 million sold! Only 99,998,367,000 to go. Fantastic start! And as we know, Animal Crossing has legs. It'll only be a mere 61,237 more weeks like this before it reaches its goal... and even if the legs aren't quite that long so we can depend on consistent sales for the next thousand+ years at least.... Yet we have limited data! This is only for the UK and Japan which make up roughly 1.5% of the population of Earth. Using math, multiply 1.5 million/0.015 = 100 million (Awesome! Easy number), and factoring a 1.2% annual population growth rate, we can expect 5.214587 billion copies sold per year compounded annually with an exponent of 1.012, then take the year it reaches 100B and divide the timeframe for a year by Earth's population and subtract the difference from March 20 of the following calendar year  and we end up with August 15th 2037.

I'll be taking my time machine to that date in order to collect my cash reward, multiplied by a 31% inflation. And I'm being generous since we all know inflation is going to skyrocket in the coming years with the global crash.