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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W10, 2020 (Mar 02 - Mar 08)

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src on 13 March 2020

PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.



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Agente42 on 13 March 2020
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

what?



Jranation on 13 March 2020
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Didn't the PS3 did over 10.5mil? 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Kai_Mao on 14 March 2020
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Except the Switch is selling really well at its launch price of $300, which is basically a home console price at this point. Before production slowed down this year due to the COVID-19, the OG Switch was selling more than Switch Lite, $100 cheaper than the OG Switch.

The 3DS needed a drastic price cut months after its release.

The Switch has more room to gain more consumers. Not to mention the games it has like Brain Age and Animal Crossing New Horizons gaining new consumers from new and different demographics to the Switch. What other franchise can attract the female audience, especially in Japan, like Animal Crossing?



Pinkie_pie on 14 March 2020

What promotion did ps4 have this week for it to sell almost 14k? Could it be the ff7 demo that gave it a boost?



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src on 14 March 2020
Jranation said:
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Didn't the PS3 did over 10.5mil? 

10.25 million

Kai_Mao said:
src said:
PS4 will end relatively close to PS3, possibly still ahead alligned and with better software sales and third party support. SW is not out of the woods either, considering it is massively behind 3DS in sales and has lost a lot of exclusive third party support (not sure where software sales are in JP compared to 3DS).

At the moment, its pretty safe to say PS5 will sell similar to PS4, which sold similar to PS3: 9.5-10 million, 60-70 million software. It will get all the third party support by default as Playstation continues to be where most 3P Japanese games are sold.

Problems could be high price, or weak software lineup, though from rumours it seems its going to have a better lineup than the PS4.

Except the Switch is selling really well at its launch price of $300, which is basically a home console price at this point. Before production slowed down this year due to the COVID-19, the OG Switch was selling more than Switch Lite, $100 cheaper than the OG Switch.

The 3DS needed a drastic price cut months after its release.

The Switch has more room to gain more consumers. Not to mention the games it has like Brain Age and Animal Crossing New Horizons gaining new consumers from new and different demographics to the Switch. What other franchise can attract the female audience, especially in Japan, like Animal Crossing?

There is nothing like home console price point. Price is dependent on tech.

It's still up in the air if SW with a price cut can catch up to 3DS. It's 2.9 million behind. 

Brain Age has massively collapsed. AC is definitely a key title. 



Pinkie_pie on 24 April 2020
HoangNhatAnh said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It only needs to average 10k per week for the next 2 years to reach 10 million. With ff7 remake, ghost of tsushima and price cut it will easily

Not so sure about these things.

MasonADC said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Its been averaging 13k this year without any major title released. And if you think ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 or the last of us 2 week you will be in for a shock. It will sell at least 50k during ff7 and tlou2 launch week

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much 

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It only needs to average 10k per week for the next 2 years to reach 10 million. With ff7 remake, ghost of tsushima and price cut it will easily

Problem is, PS4 needs already a promotion to get above 10k now. Even a 10k Yen pricecut combined with FF7R and GoT won't keep those sales up for long anymore.

Kai_Mao said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Its been averaging 13k this year without any major title released. And if you think ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 or the last of us 2 week you will be in for a shock. It will sell at least 50k during ff7 and tlou2 launch week

You think The Last of Us Part II, as great of a game its anticipated to be, can create enough movement in Japan to boost PS4 sales above 15K?

Although the first game did relatively well with how it was in Japan, its a completely different climate now. Animal Crossing is dominating COMG charts by a mile compared to even FF7 Remake, which was arguably the most anticipated game ever according to Famitsu readers. The Switch is THE gaming platform in Japan outside of mobile (and maybe PC).

Marth said:
Pinkie_pie said:

It doesnt need to sell 10k or above eveery week. It only needs to average 10k for the next 2 years. I think it will sell at least 6-7k per week then there will be boost here and there to make up the 10k average 

You need one hell of a boost if you want to push a 100 week average from 7k to 10k.

Marth said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Not necessarily just 1 huge boost. Can be a few small boosts and a huge boost like ff7 releases, holidays and permanent price drop. 6-7k will happen often but not every week 

Just so we're clear you need like 4x 100k weeks to boost that average so high, numbers that the PS4 won't reach anymore

Or like 25 weeks of 20k, which will already be insanely hard to reach especially that amount.

Kai_Mao said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Tlou2 will boost ps4 way above 15k. So you also agree with hoang that ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 remake release week?

I neither agree nor disagree. I'm just stating that TLoU part II, a Western-focused game, may not have it easy with the current state of gaming in Japan. What makes you think it could boost it above 15K, or even reach 50K according to what you are predicting?

Farsala said:
Marth said:
I wish Sony had cut the price last year.
Would have been a good time and increased the baseline a bit more.

But they are insisting on the current pricepoint and will probably keep it into the next gen.

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:
Pinkie_pie said:

Ps4' higher sales predictions as in reaching 10 million lifetime? So you are saying ps4 has no chance of reaching 10 million? If you really think that then you are the one who is delusional 

The PS4 is struggling to have decent legs at its current price point, and soon the PS3 will overtake it launch aligned. In addition, the PS4 will have its legs cut when the PS5 releases much like the PS3 did. Generally the January- March period is important for PS sales and it is already down 240k YoY. A price promotion in Feb/ March plus FF7 would have been great, but FF7 was delayed.

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 



StarDoor on 24 April 2020
src said:

There is nothing like home console price point. Price is dependent on tech.

It's still up in the air if SW with a price cut can catch up to 3DS. It's 2.9 million behind. 

Brain Age has massively collapsed. AC is definitely a key title. 

Imagine saying this when the gap is 2.17 million and it was 3.31 million sixteen weeks ago.



Farsala on 25 April 2020
Pinkie_pie said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Not so sure about these things.

MasonADC said:

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Problem is, PS4 needs already a promotion to get above 10k now. Even a 10k Yen pricecut combined with FF7R and GoT won't keep those sales up for long anymore.

Kai_Mao said:

You think The Last of Us Part II, as great of a game its anticipated to be, can create enough movement in Japan to boost PS4 sales above 15K?

Although the first game did relatively well with how it was in Japan, its a completely different climate now. Animal Crossing is dominating COMG charts by a mile compared to even FF7 Remake, which was arguably the most anticipated game ever according to Famitsu readers. The Switch is THE gaming platform in Japan outside of mobile (and maybe PC).

Marth said:

You need one hell of a boost if you want to push a 100 week average from 7k to 10k.

Marth said:

Just so we're clear you need like 4x 100k weeks to boost that average so high, numbers that the PS4 won't reach anymore

Or like 25 weeks of 20k, which will already be insanely hard to reach especially that amount.

Kai_Mao said:

I neither agree nor disagree. I'm just stating that TLoU part II, a Western-focused game, may not have it easy with the current state of gaming in Japan. What makes you think it could boost it above 15K, or even reach 50K according to what you are predicting?

Farsala said:

Yep, imo, there is no chance the PS4 gets a price cut now and thus PS4's higher sales predictions are fairly delusional.

Farsala said:

The PS4 is struggling to have decent legs at its current price point, and soon the PS3 will overtake it launch aligned. In addition, the PS4 will have its legs cut when the PS5 releases much like the PS3 did. Generally the January- March period is important for PS sales and it is already down 240k YoY. A price promotion in Feb/ March plus FF7 would have been great, but FF7 was delayed.

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

@bold, not my prediction.

The 10m still stands, even with the obvious FF7 boost, the PS4 is down 180k YoY almost a 1/3 of the way through the year. Remember the PS4 sold 1.2m last year, so being 180k down does not bode well.



Pinkie_pie on 25 April 2020
Farsala said:
Pinkie_pie said:

How wrong were all of you? Ps4 wont ever sell 50k in a week? Its impossible to reach 10 million? 

@bold, not my prediction.

The 10m still stands, even with the obvious FF7 boost, the PS4 is down 180k YoY almost a 1/3 of the way through the year. Remember the PS4 sold 1.2m last year, so being 180k down does not bode well.

Ps4 is at 9.05 million. Ps4 is still selling better than ps3 launch aligned and ps3 sold 10.5 million. Ps4 will get a price cut after ps5 releases and it will absolutely pass 10 million.  Its not hard to see how ps4 can sell 10 million but for some reason you think its impossible. Maybe you just dont want to see it achieve 10 million