Ah, I wondered what was with the jump up to 13k.

Switch shortages are really starting to bite. Hopefully Foxconn still plans to be up and running as normal by the end of March.

1. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Nintendo, 03/06/20) – 138,548 (New)
2. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 20,679 (3,491,353)
3. [NSW] Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Bundle Version Included) (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 12,933 (1,298,028)
4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 12,751 (2,805,986)
5. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 11,319 (3,592,374)
6. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 10,067 (715,030)
7. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Limited Edition Included) (Atlus, 02/20/20) – 8,109 (143,608)
8. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 7,774 (1,362,328)
9. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Bundle Version Included) (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 7,293 (3,335,123)
10. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo, 12/27/19) – 6,394 (171,725)
11. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Limited Edition Included) (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 5,785 (1,536,624)
12. [NSW] Doraemon: Nobita’s New Dinosaur (FuRyu, 03/05/20) – 5,515 (New)
13. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 4,889 (869,234)
14. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 (Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 4,835 (612,338)
15. [NSW] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Limited Edition Included) (Atlus, 02/20/20) – 4,755 (60,059)
16. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (01/11/19) – 4,733 (792,986)
17. [NSW] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva MegaMix (Sega, 02/13/20) – 4,621 (71,162)
18. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games (Sega, 11/01/19) – 4,374 (283,299)
19. [NSW] Tsuri Spirits Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco, 07/25/19) – 3,815 (403,377)
20. [PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Versus (Limited Edition Included) (Cygames, 02/06/20) – 3,216 (108,668)
21. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 3,152 (453,219)
22. [PS4] Katana Kami: A Way of the Samurai Story (Spike Chunsoft, 02/20/20) – 3,150 (17,599)
23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition (Limited Edition Included) (Square Enix, 09/27/19) – 2,765 (495,735)
24. [NSW] Pokemon: Let’s Go, Pikachu! / Let’s Go, Eevee! (Bundle Editions Included) (Nintendo, 11/16/18) – 2,725 (1,708,487)
25. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo, 10/27/17) – 2,643 (2,077,640)
26. [NSW] Mega Man Zero/ZX Legacy Collection (Capcom, 02/27/20) – 2,595 (14,205)
27. [NSW] Obakeidoro! (Free Style, 12/19/19) – 2,417 (17,828)
28. [PS4] Monster Hunter World: Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom, 09/06/19) – 2,206 (439,916)
29. [PS4] Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Sega, 01/17/20) – 2,080 (243,769)
30. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai Namco, 01/17/20) – 1,949 (149,654)

NSW: 24

PS4: 6

https://gonintendo.com/stories/356825-japan-famitsu-sales-for-march-2-8-2020-top-30

Not so sure about these things.

Care to explain why you arent sure it can average 10k for the next 2 years? Ps4 will sell at least 7k weekly. There will be few boost here and there with persona 5 royal, ff7, the last of us 2, ghost of tsushima, permanent price drop, holidays, promotion and so on.

The sales keep dropping harder and harder, "average 10k for the next 2 years" is almost a dream, more like average 6-7k for the next 2 years, and 10 - 15k for 1-2 weeks of ff7, the last of us 2, ghost of tsushima, permanent price drop and holidays. PS4 is a home console, not a portable, also, P5R already came out since last  year and ps4 sales number didn't even reach 10k in that week.

https://www.gematsu.com/2019/11/famitsu-sales-10-28-19-11-3-19

PS4 will get 9.5 million+ which is close enough. PS5 adoption imo will cut its tail more than the PS4 did for PS3 due to BC.

Its been averaging 13k this year without any major title released. And if you think ps4 will only sell 10-15k during ff7 or the last of us 2 week you will be in for a shock. It will sell at least 50k during ff7 and tlou2 launch week

You also said this for Persona 5 Royal

In the first 10 week of 2020 PS4 averaged about 12.8K per week.

However the first week was a holiday week and accounted for more than 45% of PS4 yearly sales until now.

The average of the past 9 weeks is about 7.8K per week.

The best way to predict roughly around where PS4 could/should fall as end 2021 is by guessing the yearly declines for 2020 and 2021 IMO.

My guess is that at the end of 2021 PS4 total HW sales will be around 10M (could be a bit lower or a bit higher).

I expect PS4 to ultimately sell less consoles than PS3 in Japan.

The only way ps4 sells 50k units ever again is with a price cut or some sort of promotion. Also, I think you might be overestimating TLOU a bit much