The question is if messing up hard will be enough for the competition to beat Sony.

The answer is no.

I think this is about right and I think both would do very little damage to each of them. Sony has it's base and they are used to lack luster launch titles. MS pretty much did as bad as they could do this gen. I don't think they could really drop the ball anymore than they did this gen. They've made a lot of positive changes and will see if those changes result in not just more exclusives but well made ones on top of it. I personally would have no issue spending $599 if I knew I was getting the most powerful console on the market.

I personally do not think it will be $599, even with the power MS is promoting. Every gamer old enough to remember E3 2006 knows $599 will kill your long term sales, even with the power that was promised at the time. $499, maybe $549 if they promote Lockhart at $399, but not $599. 

Maaaaaybe they can get away with $599 if they throw in 3 months of GP Ultimate and a bundled game.  

I don't think they'd go $599 either. I think $549 would be the max and anything more they would be willing to just take a loss on it.

DF did a piece on Lockhart maybe having a 4tf GPU while keeping everything else the same (except maybe 12GB ram instead of 16GG)
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2020-in-theory-does-a-4tf-next-gen-console-make-sense

How much would this save and will it be possible to convince consumers to go for this (appearing weaker than the xbox one x although it won't be)

Lockhart 399 4tf ?
PS5 499 9.2tf ?
Series X 549 12tf

Would that be possible? With 1/3rd the power compared to its big brother, the price difference will have to be big to convince early adopters to even consider the lower option. The One X is currently on sale for 299, great deal, but might also undermine Lockhart pricing. PS4 pro is still 399.

Perhaps ps5 will start at 399 again, that would leave very little margins for Lockhart to look good.

I think lockhart with 4tf only makes sense if they can pull it off for $350, while XSX is above $600. In other cases the lockhart will be as dead and forgotten as the PS3 20GB was a month after release.

I don't see MS asking anymore than $599 for XBSX. That might even mean they have to subsidize $100 for the first year, but asking for more than $600 for a console would be a first, and while it would be "bold" as Phil likes to say, PS3 was also bold, so.

If XBSX is $599, it's out of reach for many, so MS won't take how it compares to Lockharts TF into account much in terms of price. I also don't think they will put it on market to land where it should based on how it compares to PS5. If you want a cheaper XB however, which will be the cheapest option period, as long as PS doesn't have a lower tier, then your only choice will be Lockhart.

The consumer will have to choose, whether Lockhart is $300 or $400. Would you rather spend another $100-$200 and get a PS5 with 5-6 more TF, or save the money, or spend it on XB games? The consumers who don't care about brand and are value oriented, will choose PS5 most likely. The consumers who simply care about being able to get into next gen asap, at the lowest price, will choose Lockhart. A cheaper Lockhart also may force PS to keep PS5's price lower than they would like to otherwise, which would help make XBSX seem more premium.

Now personally I think from a marketing perspective, $299 and $599 would be the perfect prices for XB. It makes XBSX seem like a steal in terms of TF performance vs Lockhart, while making Lockhart seem like a steal in terms of being able to play 'uncompromised' next gen games for super cheap. Can a $100 subsidy get Lockhart there as well though?

In just about any Lockhart (4TF) scenario, XB1X hardware has to go immediately. After 2 years max, if not sooner, XB1S hardware also has to go. With a $299 Lockhart, you want as many people as possible to buy into next gen asap. XB1X would only get in the way. XB1SAD would be the cheapest way to keep bringing people into the ecosystem, hoping they will upgrade to Lockhart sooner than later.

Even if Lockhart was $399, and XB1X could be $299, I'd still think MS drops it immediately. As long as all XB1 systems play all future XB games, at least for a few years, you don't want XB1X taking sales away from Lockhart. You want those people using next gen XB hardware asap, because the sooner that happens, the less likely they are to end up with a PS5. Assuming of course that XB feels they've got things solidly figured out this time around.

The DRM issue and the poor release of the Halo Pack is what put many people off at launch.  After that point I got a PS4 instead, I could not care less what Microsoft did to rectify it. I was already entrenched in a PS4 as were many people who jumped ship because of the poor launch decisions. 

A 4tf xbox would be very hard to market everywhere other than the US, especially if sold at 399.

In Europe you can buy a xbox one x for 299 €.

It's puzzling why do it at launch. In the past the cheaper launch models didn't get much love, didn't help the WiiU nor the ps3. It will have some more success when the Series X is 599 and Lockhart 349. The 20 GB ps3 at 499 didn't do much. The sales of the cheaper model will pick up later but then it's another model that needs to be supported all generation dragging its bigger brother down. Normal price cuts, lower storage solutions, no drive and keep the same baseline makes more sense although at launch it won't do much. I guess its good to keep your loyal fan base that can't afford the real model. Outside the US it won't do much.