I think the closest historical analogue to the new Coronavirus is the 1957 Flu pandemic, which also began in China and had an estimated death rate between 0.1% and 1.6%. Back then, we also didn't have antivirals against Influenza. It was a much younger population worldwide, mind, but potentially there were more smokers across Europe and specially the US.

Curiously, the same virus returned about a decade later as a milder strain of flu that also caused a pandemic.

Mind you, a pandemic with a PSI between 2 and 4 such as this can potentially kill 500,000 - 1,500,000 people in the US alone. That's almost a decade's worth of flu deaths. The economy... isn't probably going to like it.

I think at this point I'm more worried about the economic aftermath that's going to follow. Hopefully this does not reach 2007-2009 levels again.

Since it mostly affects older people (at least for deaths) pension plans are going to like it :/ Life insurance companies, not so much.

The economy is going to be effected by panic and travel restrictions. The tourist sector is going to hurt the most. However most people will be fine. Small companies will probably hurt more from (temporary) loss of employees, big companies shouldn't have much of a problem.

The bigger problem will be the strain on the healthcare system. Countries with free healthcare will feel the drain on their budgets while in a country like the USA you will probably have to file for bankruptcy after surviving 3 weeks on the ICU...

In the US, it has been estimated, for a Spanish Flu-like scenario, that 33% of working age people getting a disease with 2.5% death rate and a three-week recovery time would mean an economic contraction of 5%. The 2009 recession contracted the global economy by 1% in comparison, so that's huge.

Of course, the new Coronavirus isn't that bad, but still... in a global economy, we are talking about the risk of actual shortages of goods with a pandemic. Basically something like what preppers had predicted for the Brexit.

Yeah, just like the healthcare system, most things are close to 100% efficiency with little overhead. Food gets dragged all over the world before it reaches your local store. It would be beneficial for local grown food, however here for example, Ontario depends on seasonal workers from Middle America for the harvest season. Travel restrictions will be hard on everything. Shortages of (some) goods can indeed easily happen.

I guess this will be a good wake up call to make the whole system more robust. 'Luckily' this virus is indeed not that bad. Most people will hardly be slowed down by it, but will still be worried sick over their family members.

Hmm it seems the statistics for the Diamond princess are getting lost in the rest. A lot of people have been flown back home and several have unfortunately died now (most recent one in Australia) yet they do not get counted towards the death toll for the Diamond princess. Actual death rate is still hard to tell.

Yeah china is doing way more than anyone else, but only out of self-interest and to minimize further impact and spread to themselves. They didn't and still don't give a shit if it spreads worldwide. Pretty sure they consider worldwide spread more favorable/preferable to only domestic. They just realized they could no longer cover it up and had to take drastic action to stop it from spreading further into china. The entire time china was quarantining whole cities, they were demanding other countries leave their borders open to Chinese travelers. Countries like iran had no choice since china is basically one of their few allies. Look at the mess they're innow.

"In late December, several genomics companies tested samples from sick patients in Wuhan — the center of the coronavirus outbreak — and noticed alarming similarities between their illnesses and the 2002 SARS virus, the Sunday Times of London reported, citing Chinese business news site Caixin Global.

The researchers alerted Beijing of their findings — and on Jan. 3, received a gag order from China’s National Health Commission, with instructions to destroy the samples."

https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-officials-knew-of-coronavirus-in-december-ordered-cover-up-report-says/

Sadly that's what countries do. Trump is downplaying the whole thing as well and under reporting the numbers (talking about 22 instead of 60 active cases) Meanwhile praising himself for closing the borders to China on Januari 31st, praising China for the numbers to be way down. He thinks the professionals have it all figured it out. Vaccine already figured out. It will be a smaller circumstance, ask the media to be careful, no reason to panic at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-gzon4Elqg
Do you trust him... Can't trust the others anymore either since they have effectively been gagged.

Mike Pence: Borders to Iran now have been closed, yet just an advisory for Americans not to travel to certain areas in Italy and South Korea. (Meanwhile it's in over 60 countries) We have more than 40 million masks available (not 100% effective btw) so far for health care providers. (who can still get sick with the standard 3M masks)

CDC: From day one, this is what we expected, the risk remains low (how different from before he got muzzled) We will see more cases, vast majority will have mild to moderate symptoms, simply stay at home when you feel sick. Lower the amount of travel to stricken areas.

Towards the end, they did find new cases without links. We will see more new cases in clusters, isolate, trace contacts. But it will continue to evolve. Risk to American public remains low, we anticipate new cases, but I state, the risk remains low.

Trump, we're doing such a good job.

CDC: I have not been muzzled, just need to clear what I say with Mike Pence. LOL


Anyway, in the world we live in, no country can truly isolate itself. America would grind to a halt without imports from China.


CDC: 75% to 80% will do quite well (bad flu or cold) 15% to 20% will go on to require advanced medical care. (That's higher than I thought) The elderly and those with underlying heart disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes and/or obesity are at risk. However everyone once in a while young healthy people will die as well.

Trump: Good news, Starbucks is open again in China and Apple is back to business... WTF lol.

No travel restrictions in the US, Americans, I re-iterate, are at low risk.

Mexico: Keeping the border open.
China: We're doing more trade deals, we're closer with China now.
Trump beating the drum, China won't overtake our economy, we'll refinance our debt at lower rates, etc etc.
The markets will come back, our consumers are in a great position, our professionals are doing a great job, the numbers are very strong.

Nothing about Canada (it's here as well). The risk is considered low here as well, still in containment phase and concerns are about protection of health care workers. However "Foreign Affairs Minister François-Philippe Champagne says there are no further plans to repatriate Canadians from countries affected by Covid-19. He's advising Canadians be vigilant when travelling internationally."


Oh well, it will come around sooner or later, it seems unstoppable since no country is prepared to actually close its borders and isolate until cleared. Even if you do that it would mean people running out of food and other things. 87k cases now, almost 3k dead. The decline in active cases is flattening out and will soon go up again now the cases in the rest of the world are growing exponentially.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#newly-infected-newly-recovered
Be prepared, hope for the best. Maybe a quick rise in temperature will slow it down. Global warming might save us yet!

The statistics for the Diamond Princess only include those being treated in Japan, nationals or foreigners. These 706 confirmed cases and 6 deaths also do not include 4 Japanese infected while working on the ship, and the people who tested positive upon their return home: 44 people in the US, 8 in Australia (including this man who've died), 4 in the UK, 4 in Hong Kong, 3 in Israel, and 2 in Japan.

Although... yeah, pneumonia takes a long time to heal (or potentially evolve to death), specially in the elderly, so that's why it lags. My 95 year old grandfather, for instance, has been in the hospital for a month already with pneumonia :/

Guess who's sick right now lol.

There's been a confirmed case of a guy who works in another city 20km from my place but I got sick a few days before that.
Weather got worse recently with tempertatures going as low as the freezing point (even some snow) so I'm probably not the only one who caught a cold.

German expert who helped to find the SARS virus and worked on the test for Covid-19 said that up to 70% of all Germans could get in contact with the virus

He was also pretty mad about all this "our country is good prepared" bullshit by politicians who say that while also saying how hard it is for the countries to find enough medical protective equipment