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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Yes but you should consider that in Iran the situation is worse than what is said in statistics, instead in Italy the Covid-19 infected an hospital in which there were many terminally ill patients... in general all hit nations are working well against this virus.



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John2290 said:
SvennoJ said:

The experts don't share the same faith though. Testing all arriving passengers (2.7 million airline passengers daily) is beyond our modern capabilities and no one wants to shut the borders down since the economy is more important.

18 months is already a very optimistic estimate to assemble a vaccine that then still has to be mass produced and distributed, while convincing the anti vaxxers as well. The WHO is doing a great job so far but the odds are heavily stacked against them.

Meanwhile the commercials to promote cheap holidays continue as usual, the economy comes first. I wonder if Trump is going to downplay the whole thing tonight and just spout some of the usual usa is great nonsense.

With an incubation period of 2 to 14 days, let's say a week before getting contagious and only infecting 2 others, it would take 33 weeks for one case to turn into 8 billion. 95% of people will be all right, but yep, it can get ugly. Slowing it down is the current strategy.

Are you sure it's 18 months? I've been reading 9 months with 3 months for mass production...

https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/25/21153035/coronavirus-response-trump-vaccine-covid19-cdc-who-health-crisis
"The CDC estimates that a vaccine for the new coronavirus is unlikely to be available in the next 12-18 months, far too late to be useful in preventing an outbreak in the US.”

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.htmlhttps://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html
"But even when proceeding at an "emergency speed," a vaccine would not be available for use for at least a year or 18 months"

Early tests start in April, if all goes well (it actually works with few negative side effects), it will still be at least a year.


Some estimates say that the Coronovirus could peak as soon as May in China (40% of the population infected)
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5
(That was over a week ago, the optimistic scenario seems done for atm)
Since it's already going on for 2 months there, 5 to 6 months for the virus to peak in the rest of the world is possible.

Whether or not to start calling it pandemic
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00551-1
"But other scientists say the surge in international cases marks a tipping point in the 2-month-old outbreak. “Whatever WHO says, I think the epidemiological conditions for a pandemic are met,” says Marc Lipsitch, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts. “Under almost any reasonable definition of pandemic, there’s now evidence of it happening.”


This is pretty worrying as well, apparently tests are not perfect either, they were cleared to leave

  • 4 new cases in Hong Kong: 2 of which from the Diamond Princess cruise ship: [source]
    - a 21-year-old woman who had a fever on board the ship on Feb. 12 and was fine afterwards.
    - a 16-year-old man (youngest confirmed patient to date in Hong Kong) who had runny nose on the ship on Feb. 17 and is currently hospitalized at Queen Mary Hospital.
  • 1 new case in Australia is a former passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. 8 of the 23 cases in Australia had been on the ship. [source]
    3 new cases in the United States: 2 from the Diamond Princess cruise ship

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 26 February 2020

Yep as I thought, he's downplaying it. USA is great, they'll stop it.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/26/809578063/trump-to-address-response-to-coronavirus
They're very ready, vaccine is coming, at a low level, only 1 or 2 people over the next period of time.
USA is rated nr 1 for being prepared.

CDC is kissing presedential ass, situation contained for now, but expects to see more cases, be prepared for a broader response.

Now it's about funding.

Next speaker, now is a good time to prepare.

Nr of prototype vaccines available, one test candidate to begin testing in about 2 months, 3  months to determine if its safe (45 people), then a month to manufacture for bigger trial 6 to 8 months (100k people). Year to a year and a half before viable vaccine for all.

Quite feasible the virus will spread, but it will also cycle like the flu, thus vaccine will be needed for the future.

And Trump is back to downplaying and blaming other countries lol.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 26 February 2020

Pyro as Bill said:
numberwang said:

Seems like Italians and the Aryans in Iran aren't faring as well as East Asians.

Iran - 16/95
Italy - 11/323

S.Korea - 12/1146
China - 27/780 (00s)
Japan - 1/161
Singapore - 0/91

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

By default, more critical cases are detected first. China had 30 deaths or so with ~ 300 confirmed cases.



 

 

 

 

 

This is saying that China has now banned the export of all medical masks to other countries. 



我是广州人

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Ashadelo said:

This is saying that China has now banned the export of all medical masks to other countries. 

"Are you working with China"
Trump: "Yes we just did two great trade deals with China"
WTF, that's not what they meant lol.

Why did they ban the export? Needed at home I guess?



SvennoJ said:
Ashadelo said:

This is saying that China has now banned the export of all medical masks to other countries. 

"Are you working with China"
Trump: "Yes we just did two great trade deals with China"
WTF, that's not what they meant lol.

Why did they ban the export? Needed at home I guess?

I live in Guangzhou China.

Europe's epidemic risks have soared, but masks are "hard to find ". China has banned the export of medical masks to combat a new outbreak of pneumonia. This has led to bottlenecks elsewhere in the world, with Europe even at risk of running out of medical masks.

thats the translation of the article above.



我是广州人

Ashadelo said:
SvennoJ said:

"Are you working with China"
Trump: "Yes we just did two great trade deals with China"
WTF, that's not what they meant lol.

Why did they ban the export? Needed at home I guess?

I live in Guangzhou China.

Europe's epidemic risks have soared, but masks are "hard to find ". China has banned the export of medical masks to combat a new outbreak of pneumonia. This has led to bottlenecks elsewhere in the world, with Europe even at risk of running out of medical masks.

thats the translation of the article above.

Ah makes sense. (What I typed was the last bit of the press conference Trump gave, downplaying the risks, trying to secure the economy, hence him talking about trade deals instead of collaboration with disease experts)

All the best to you and your family. Scary times. Most people will survive but it's almost inevitable some of our friends and family will get seriously ill.



The virus is now spreading faster outside of China than inside China. Containment has failed. We are in a new world now.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1gWECYYOSo

Please Watch/Share this video so it gets shown in Hollywood.

Thank you, Guangzhou has been in quarantine for about a month now. Sure we can go out and buy food but thats pretty much it. Whats super lame is that the government took over all the factories (even foreign owned ones) and controls 100% supply of the medical masks 3层医用口罩 and the N95 masks. Now all the masks costs 4x more than they did right before they announced the virus was unleashed on the public.

And since 80% of medical supplies are designated to WuHan that leaves only 20% for the rest of China to fight for. Most people dont even leave their houses anymore because people are too scared. A lot of my friends don't have many masks and reuse the daily use ones for more than one day. They just use disinfectant spray and then reuse the masks 没有办法



我是广州人