Not looking too good for Iran, top officials infected and exposed
One new case in Canada, just a +1 not updated where yet. 12 cases so far, 4 in Ontario, 7 in BC (and the one new somewhere) It takes a long time to recover, still only 10 recoveries on the Diamond Princess. USA sits at 57 cases. Still contained this side of the ocean, but now it has been detected in Brazil... The problem with the long incubation period is that a bunch of other people can already have caught it while the first case still thinks its the regular flu.
China and South Korea added another 700+ cases together, Italy another 51, 44 new cases in Iran and 11 in Japan.
Hmm 14 new cases on the Diamond Princess, still not done spreading there.
| crissindahouse said: And I also can't believe this will happen in Northern America, Europe, Australia and so on. I guess it could spread super fast in as example many African or other very poor countries, though (if it survives the temperatures there) |
You only need one single person to start an avalanche. We have had the story of the Italian patient 0 which was found to be in perfect health. So the source in Europe is still on the loose. But at this stage, it doesn't really matter anymore.
Now we are getting reports about infected people returning from Milan. Austria, France, Germany, Switzeland, Spain all report increasing numbers tracing back to a visit in the Milan region. So can you do in Europe the same as in China (where a totalitarian regime can isolate an entire megacity pretty much totally)? No we can't.
In Europe, we are in the early stages of a typical "virus-spreading-infection-curve" currently. The ship has sailed and it will arrive in other continents with some delay. I do wonder about ANZO though, there is a lot of traffic with asia in those countries and we don't read anything in the papers over here.
Last edited by drkohler - on 26 February 2020
| John2290 said: I put together a box that'll should last a rationed six weeks and I'm going to add a bit more to it as time goes on. I feel a lot better as this shit is gonna be, if not already, a global shit show, next few weeks is gonna reveal just how far it has already spread and thw weeks following are going to be scary. It's definitely here in Ireland, stewing inside people as our government let a plane full of contaminated people on their way with a warning not to have too much personal contact with people, our health service is socialised and has a hard time keeping up with demmand on a normal month so it won't take the stress. Qauranteed economic catastrophe is about to happen and recovery will be tough until we get a vaccine in mass production, I've not seen something this bad in my life and H1N1 was pretty rough going, this looks like it is agony for half the people who get it, knowing my luck I'll be in the 50% who reach critical condition. I just hope I get it relatively sooner rather than later while the health service isn't completely crippled or stay clear of it as long as possible on hopes of a vaccine as I think the most risk yo ones life lies in that middle period of a crippled health system and hospital staff are at their lowest while sick. |
It's actually 5% of cases that get seriously ill not 50%. If you look at a controlled environment like the Diamond Princess, 36 out of 691 detected cases turned serious to critical. Outside the ship there must be many undetected cases walking around with only mild symptons.
5% won't stop stores from getting stocked but it will harm the economy. The last estimates were that 40% to 70% of the population will get infected eventually, 5% of 40% is still 150 million people worldwide needing hospital care. It takes a long time to recover as well. Hospitals won't be able to handle that kind of influx, socialized or not.
A vaccine that can be mass produced will take 18 months at least, with miracle work, maybe a year. Slowing this virus down for a year seems to become harder every day, especially when governments don't take it all that seriously yet
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html
Here in Canada the risk is still deemed low, monitor your health for 14 days after traveling abroad. New cases are bound to turn up.
The US is taking it more seriously
The U.S. CDC yesterday suggested that the risk of a coronavirus pandemic is likely and is alerting the public to begin preparing for community spread in the United States. Dr. Anne Schuchat, the CDC's principal deputy director declared: "It's not a question of if. It's a question of when and how many people will be infected." [source] The city of San Francisco declared on Tuesday a state of emergency even if at the moment there are no confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the area. [source] President Trump will hold a news conference on Covid-19 today at 6:00 PM ET. [source]
| John2290 said: It won't infect everyone but if it ifected, it'd be more along the lines of the Flu but if even that its 300k dead before the summer and as so many flu cases go unreported the figure could easily double. The high end is about one million in modern times but if this was say, 1920, it's be twenty times that, but who knows, maybe with a cripppled health system it could reach it's 3% potential and that would be the greatest catastrophy in human history. |
It could.
The plague killed about 25 million over centuries on a world population of about 500 million.
In 1918 the Spanish Flu killed 20 to 50 million people, around 500 million infected on a world population of about 1.7 billion.
WW2 killed 75 million people of about 2.4 billion.
Today we have around 7.7 billion people.
With a low estimate of 2% deaths out of 40% infected, 62 million, high estimate of 5% deaths out of 70% infected, 270 million.
That is, if it can't be contained long enough to find better ways to increase survival odds.
Another problem is that it can become like the flu, going round and round until it can be eliminated by successful vaccines like measles etc.
I think that there might be many more cases in Iran. I thought it was odd that at the beginning they reported 2 deaths with no additional cases. now they are at 139 cases with 19 deaths that's the highest dead count outside of China. Even south Korea with over 1.2k cases only have 12 deaths.
edit: had 12k instead of 1.2k
Last edited by Chicho - on 26 February 2020
| John2290 said: Indeed it could but it's highly unlikely with modern technology for information and obviously better medicine and knowledge. We'd really have to fuck up badly for it to get that bad. It'll be interesting to see how countries can manage something this bad and like I said maybe it will cripple the whole damn thing enough for the worst to happen but for my own sanity I have to believe we are advanced enough at this point to manage something on the scale of the spanish flu and reduce the impact to a fraction. A vaccine will come far, far sooner than any in time in the past, including just a decade ago with the H1N1 scare. Fingers crossed cause if tens of millions die it will fuck us bad for the next half decade, some third world countries would be totally obliterated. |
The experts don't share the same faith though. Testing all arriving passengers (2.7 million airline passengers daily) is beyond our modern capabilities and no one wants to shut the borders down since the economy is more important.
18 months is already a very optimistic estimate to assemble a vaccine that then still has to be mass produced and distributed, while convincing the anti vaxxers as well. The WHO is doing a great job so far but the odds are heavily stacked against them.
Meanwhile the commercials to promote cheap holidays continue as usual, the economy comes first. I wonder if Trump is going to downplay the whole thing tonight and just spout some of the usual usa is great nonsense.
With an incubation period of 2 to 14 days, let's say a week before getting contagious and only infecting 2 others, it would take 33 weeks for one case to turn into 8 billion. 95% of people will be all right, but yep, it can get ugly. Slowing it down is the current strategy.
No need to worry about Iran guys.
A senior official says that their religious sites can cure the illness so more people should visit.
Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)
Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!
| numberwang said: CrazyGamer was canned because he was too skeptical about the virus? I still believe this virus is hitting Asians, in particular Chinese much harder than any other race of people. 90% of the infected have fever and 5% die which is way beyond what we see outside of China / ethnic Chinese people. Results: 9 studies were included in Meta-analysis, including a total of 50404 patients with 2019-nCoV infection... the incidence of fever is 90.9% , the incidence of cough is 70.8%, and the incidence of muscle soreness or fatigue is 41%. The incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was 14.8%, the incidence of abnormal chest CT was 95.6%, the proportion of severe cases in all infected cases was 21.3%, and the mortality rate of patients with 2019-nCoV infection was 4.8%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024539v1 |
Seems like Italians and the Aryans in Iran aren't faring as well as East Asians.
Iran - 16/95
Italy - 11/323
S.Korea - 12/1146
China - 27/780 (00s)
Japan - 1/161
Singapore - 0/91
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 26 February 2020Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)
Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!
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