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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

It's going be very tricky to re-open everything again. One day too soon can mean having to shut everything down again for months and if you think people are restless now wait until a false restart triggers another outbreak.

Ontario just broke its record reported cases and deaths for a single day so we're definitely not done with it yet. It's not really growing, staying flat, not going down. More tests of course means more cases found, and deaths peak later as well as previously not reported deaths are now added, so it's not all doom and gloom. But one thing is for sure, to way down the hill is much much longer than the quick rise to the peak.



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This is why you don't mess with an Italian from New York :D



SvennoJ said:
drkohler said:

I calculated the Imperial college estimates through before based on the demographics in the US and India.

In the US the death toll could be 2.2 million if left unchecked out of 328 million population.
In India the death toll could be 2.0 million if left unchecked out of 1.35 billion population.

Actually less people would die in India than the US due to the huge difference in age demographics.

And true, if nobody is around to test and count the dead, we won't know.

(Those are lower estimates btw if 'only' 40% of the population gets infected and no extra deaths due to hospital shortage)

What are you basing these estimates on? The ICL had an initial report with an estimated death toll of 2.2 million people for the US (Report 9), but with 81% of the population infected. That particular study also used an IFR estimate of 0.9%, before it was revised to 0.66% for later studies (as published in The Lancet late in March). Even extrapolating from their estimates and assuming all age groups get evenly infected, and then manually calculating, I'm getting ~ 1.2 million deaths for the US with 40% of the population infected.

Of course, that leaves us with the effects of hospital shortages, but even then, with 84% of people put in ventilators dying regardless in a lot of places... it would seem patient triages wouldn't significantly increase the death rate overall. As depressing and cruel as that thought might be.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
SvennoJ said:

I calculated the Imperial college estimates through before based on the demographics in the US and India.

In the US the death toll could be 2.2 million if left unchecked out of 328 million population.
In India the death toll could be 2.0 million if left unchecked out of 1.35 billion population.

Actually less people would die in India than the US due to the huge difference in age demographics.

And true, if nobody is around to test and count the dead, we won't know.

(Those are lower estimates btw if 'only' 40% of the population gets infected and no extra deaths due to hospital shortage)

What are you basing these estimates on? The ICL had an initial report with an estimated death toll of 2.2 million people for the US (Report 9), but with 81% of the population infected. That particular study also used an IFR estimate of 0.9%, before it was revised to 0.66% for later studies (as published in The Lancet late in March). Even extrapolating from their estimates and assuming all age groups get evenly infected, and then manually calculating, I'm getting ~ 1.2 million deaths for the US with 40% of the population infected.

Of course, that leaves us with the effects of hospital shortages, but even then, with 84% of people put in ventilators dying regardless in a lot of places... it would seem patient triages wouldn't significantly increase the death rate overall. As depressing and cruel as that thought might be.

Ah I see, I calculated the USA for 70% infected, India for 40%, nvm my numbers are off. Total death count in India would be higher regardless.

I used page 5 of this, report 9 yep.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf



NightlyPoe said:

I think we've already established that the "downplaying" is a myth.  Now, what failure to act to contain are you talking about?  Other than ignoring the WHO's recommendation not to cut travel to China, which expert recommendations did he ignore
?

He didn't screen the 400k US citizens arriving into the US from China when he did that even when it was recommended he do so  



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NightlyPoe said:
SvennoJ said:
It's going be very tricky to re-open everything again. One day too soon can mean having to shut everything down again for months and if you think people are restless now wait until a false restart triggers another outbreak.

Ontario just broke its record reported cases and deaths for a single day so we're definitely not done with it yet. It's not really growing, staying flat, not going down. More tests of course means more cases found, and deaths peak later as well as previously not reported deaths are now added, so it's not all doom and gloom. But one thing is for sure, to way down the hill is much much longer than the quick rise to the peak.

Yeah.  Unfortunately, I don't think there will ever be a good time.  I'm skeptical a path exists that doesn't lead to increased infections.  It might be modern hubris to think we can even try to thread this needle.  Best we can do, might end up being the best we can do.

BTW, I've not been around.  Why'd they add about 400 deaths in New York today after the daily report?

They are making corrections for all the missed out of hospital deaths. The death counts are too low everywhere. People dying at home, in nursery homes etc. It takes time and a test to confirm it was covid19.

South Korea is doing it, whatever they are doing is working.



NightlyPoe said:

Pfft.  If we had the exact same situation right now for Obama, the story would be flipped to how well the government was handling things.  It's all cynical.

I don't adhere to the American media, narrative of political mud-slinging.

But if Obama did what Trump did and downplayed the Virus, even calling it CNN/Democrat Hoax, I would be criticizing Obama just as heavily for being a moron, if anything, Trump has gotten away with this lightly due to apologetic's who cannot see him doing any wrong.

NightlyPoe said:

Trump's got to deal with a press that flat out said they were going to make this "Trump's Katrina" before it even really got started.  The storyline was written and no matter what happened, big or small it would play out the same.

Jesus christ.
Regardless of your political convictions, there is going to be press that is supportive and press that is critical of any political head of state...

If Obama was in power, then Fox News would be whinging and complaining about how shit of a job he is doing.
If Trump is in power, then CNN would be whinging and complaining about how shit of a job he is doing.

All presidents get treated the damn same... But for some reason Trump supporters act all offended and somehow think that it shouldn't apply to the current president? Common. Lets be realistic here, what is good for one is good for the other.

NightlyPoe said:

Doesn't matter that there are plenty of western models that show that the United States response is far from an outlier.

And there are plenty of western models that shows the United States response was an absolute joke.

The difference between the united states and other countries is that other countries are not the worlds leading super-power, the United States is supposed to be leading the world with the best of everything isn't it? Clearly. That is not the case.

NightlyPoe said:


I know you think that Trump should just be a good Republican like Bush was and let the press rip him apart for matters beyond his control so that he's neutered by inaccurate reporting that nonetheless is celebrate with journalism awards.  However, Trump doesn't play by those rules.  Honestly, I don't blame him for it.  You point a finger at him for something he doesn't really have control over, he'll point it right back at someone who did.  Dignified or not, he doesn't win any points for letting himself be destroyed.

Trump deserves every ounce of criticism he gets.

The issues in the United States, the issues surrounding the Corona-virus in the United States? ALL of those issues start from the very top. Trump. - He is the leader of the -entire- country. He sets the policy, he elects people into positions of influence at every level of governance and so much more.

Trump deserves criticism where criticism is due and his response to this pandemic has been absolutely disgusting... And anyone defending it should be ashamed of themselves as peoples lives are literally being lost.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

CaptainExplosion said:
SpokenTruth said:

I just posted those tweets in the US Politics thread.  That's legitimately terrifying for the people of those states.

He truly is American Hitler.

No need to start insulting people here. At least Hitler had to work for his success.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

Flordia saw its biggest spike in new confirmed cases yesterday.
(lets see spring break + 1,5-2weeks +days to show signs of infection = today roughly)

Guess what? time to open back up the beaches & parks again! I kid you not.

"Mayor Lenny Curry said Duval County beaches were reopening Friday afternoon with restricted hours"
"The beaches will be open from 6 to 11 a.m. and 5 to 8 p.m."

^ because the virus only infects people outsides of between 12am to 5 pm, and 8pm to 6 am.



"[...] Mr Trump made a series of bold claims during his opening remarks, including saying the federal government now expects “around 60,000, maybe 65,000” deaths inside the United States from the virus."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-conference-today-ventilators-us-death-toll-white-house-a9471806.html

I don't see this happening. Death count is at 37k with around 2k-2.5k added each day. 60k will be reached in about 10 days. Does anyone seriously believe this is completely over in 10 days? The amount of active cases in the US is also still very high. Even if everyone who is infected now recovered within the next 10 days, there would be 300k-350k new infections.