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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict the Next Direct (Winter 2020 Edition)

 

When will the next Nintendo Direct hit?

January 21st-25th 4 6.25%
 
January 26th-31st 7 10.94%
 
February 1st-7th 3 4.69%
 
February 8th-14th 15 23.44%
 
February 15th-21st 3 4.69%
 
February 22nd-29th 10 15.63%
 
March 1st-7th 9 14.06%
 
March 8th-14th 1 1.56%
 
March 15th-21st 8 12.50%
 
We're not getting one; Don't Care 4 6.25%
 
Total:64

Since Nintendo had been doing regular directs, we haven't had a massive pandemic... 6 months without a direct and we have one. Coincidence? I think not.



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SpokenTruth said:

What's this? The next primary Nintendo Direct is potentially scheduled for March 26th? Why, that's nearly a week after the release of Animal Crossing.

Well all my predictions would be off, of course, but I don't care.  At this point I just want a Direct to happen so all the YouTubers can get back to being their mostly cheery selves.  All this waiting and speculating is making them all crabby and they're exposing their DGAF attitudes a bit.

I guess the biggest question will be whether it'll all be worth the wait anyway.  That's the risk you run, marketing 101 or not, in waiting so late that you build up too much expectation.  They better have at least two juggernauts ready to go for 2020.



NightlyPoe said:
160rmf said:

I think corona virus has more thing to do with this situation than Nintendo waiting AC release so it doesn't spread the attention for its big entrance or they actually have nothing ready to show (let's all agree that's absurd).

They are probably waiting the switch line production normalize so then bring all the news.

I keep hearing this theory, but I keep asking, "Why?"

Software production is relatively easy and can be obtained from multiple sources.  Why would a virus stop Nintendo from even announcing future games?

The virus may affect production times and release dates.

The Outer Worlds port just got delayed due to the Virtuos team being affected by the coronavirus.



SpokenTruth said:
super_etecoon said:

Well all my predictions would be off, of course, but I don't care.  At this point I just want a Direct to happen so all the YouTubers can get back to being their mostly cheery selves.  All this waiting and speculating is making them all crabby and they're exposing their DGAF attitudes a bit.

I guess the biggest question will be whether it'll all be worth the wait anyway.  That's the risk you run, marketing 101 or not, in waiting so late that you build up too much expectation.  They better have at least two juggernauts ready to go for 2020.

I still don't think they have to have major juggernauts in this ND.  Their E3 Direct would only be 10 weeks later.  The 26th ND could just cover the spring and summer releases...which may or may not have juggernauts.  E3 Direct will certainly have juggernauts though. 

We need to realize that we do not represent the market.  We (those that follow their every move and discuss said moves amongst ourselves) probably only make up 5%, if that, of their market. Our anticipation, our demand, our expectations, etc....are way disproportionate compared to the market overall.

They don't need to appease us.  We're going to buy their stuff anyway. The Marketing 101 lecture was never about us, it's about the whole market.

I'm sure Nintendo will announce new games in the Summer, but in relation to E3? I don't know now since E3 itself is cancelled.

Nintendo will likely just create another Nintendo Direct and do Treehouse, but without the E3 label for this year.



SpokenTruth said:

What's this? The next primary Nintendo Direct is potentially scheduled for March 26th? Why, that's nearly a week after the release of Animal Crossing.

Are you trying to imply that releasing the direct merely a week after New Horizons somehow proves that a direct a week prior would "steal thunder" from it? Cause it doesn't, in fact it'll prove the opposite.

As I've already mentioned, New Horizons will get the vast majority of it's LTD sales after the first week as proven by previous AC games. This is after that supposed March 26th direct that'll somehow steal it's thunder. To continue to assert your stealing thunder claim is correct, you'd have to believe the game will drop off hard after the first week following the direct. Either that, or that, somehow, the reasons why the direct would steal thunder prior to release magically disappear just by having it a week after. Needless to say, both these notions are laughable.

Also, the rumor suggest having an Indie Direct just days before New Horizon's launch. That goes against your marketing 101 mantra, though I bet you'll use "they're just small indies so they don't count" as a convenient excuse as you did before with DKCTF. You never explained that btw, why it's fine to steal thunder from smaller games and only bad to do so from big ones.



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SpokenTruth said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:

Are you trying to imply that releasing the direct merely a week after New Horizons somehow proves that a direct a week prior would "steal thunder" from it? Cause it doesn't, in fact it'll prove the opposite.

As I've already mentioned, New Horizons will get the vast majority of it's LTD sales after the first week as proven by previous AC games. This is after that supposed March 26th direct that'll somehow steal it's thunder. To continue to assert your stealing thunder claim is correct, you'd have to believe the game will drop off hard after the first week following the direct. Either that, or that, somehow, the reasons why the direct would steal thunder prior to release magically disappear just by having it a week after. Needless to say, both these notions are laughable.

Also, the rumor suggest having an Indie Direct just days before New Horizon's launch. That goes against your marketing 101 mantra, though I bet you'll use "they're just small indies so they don't count" as a convenient excuse as you did before with DKCTF. You never explained that btw, why it's fine to steal thunder from smaller games and only bad to do so from big ones.

So why did they schedule the primary Nintendo Direct AFTER the launch of Animal Crossing? 

You're going to call basic marketing practices bullshit, let's hear your reasoning.

Obviously I don't know, perhaps that's just when it's ready, but this is irrelevant, because as I've said, it makes no difference when it happens, there will inevitably be game announcements while AC is still selling.

I'm calling bullshit on you saying anything can steal thunder from a big game like Animal Crossing. Doom Eternal wont even, and that's a big game releasing on the same day, so to think news on unknown sized games that are months/years away will is just silly. If you actually read the post you quoted or payed any attention during our earlier conversation, I gave the reasons for this already.



SpokenTruth said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:

Obviously I don't know, perhaps that's just when it's ready, but this is irrelevant, because as I've said, it makes no difference when it happens, there will inevitably be game announcements while AC is still selling.

I'm calling bullshit on you saying anything can steal thunder from a big game like Animal Crossing. Doom Eternal wont even, and that's a big game releasing on the same day, so to think news on unknown sized games that are months/years away will is just silly. If you actually read the post you quoted or payed any attention during our earlier conversation, I gave the reasons for this already.

So you are saying basic marketing principles are bullshit. 

I've not taken marketing class, but I'm pretty sure whether a direct can steal AC's thunder is a more specific topic and not a basic principle. Now are you ever gonna address anything I've actually said or keep pretending to yourself that because you went to a marketing class facts and logic be damned?



Nothing can stop Animal Crossing. I second that for sure. But I also think Nintendo could be trying to follow marketing guidelines to minimize static in the airwaves. Or it could be coronavirus. Or it could be they just aren't ready. Or it could be that this was the plan even before Animal Crossing was pushed out of the holiday window. All I'm saying is that at this point it's all speculation and no one can really claim some sort of inherent rightness about the situation, especially given the fact that the Direct is by no means confirmed at all at this point.



SpokenTruth said:

You keep thinking you're arguing with me but it's basic marketing you are arguing with.

Oh ok, then you're not actually arguing with me, you're arguing with basic common sense and facts and this somehow invalidates everything you say I guess?

lol, that's a new way to not hold one's self accountable for the bullshit they type, and a new excuse to not bother refuting arguments, all in one. Impressive, I'll give you that! Anyway, it's clear you're never going to acknowledge my points and instead continue to bring up irrelevances to avoid doing so. I'd be a fool to continue addressing all that you say while you refuse to do the same, so I'm out... for real this time!

super_etecoon said:
Nothing can stop Animal Crossing. I second that for sure. But I also think Nintendo could be trying to follow marketing guidelines to minimize static in the airwaves. Or it could be coronavirus. Or it could be they just aren't ready. Or it could be that this was the plan even before Animal Crossing was pushed out of the holiday window. All I'm saying is that at this point it's all speculation and no one can really claim some sort of inherent rightness about the situation, especially given the fact that the Direct is by no means confirmed at all at this point.

Apologies, that discussion was off topic and nothing of value was added by bringing it up again. The Animal Crossing direct makes me think there wont be one in March, but it also makes it more likely that there could still be one. Said direct bucked the trend of them being in the first half of the month.



A think a General Direct is possible after Animal Crossing, but I don’t think it’s necessary if their next big product is Xenoblade Chronicles DE for early to mid Spring. In that case, their next Direct should focus on that.

Also, a Nindies.

As I have said before, I don’t feel that Nintendo should do more than 1-2 general Directs per year, similar to how they used to do only 1-2 big shows a year: at E3 they would focus on long term plans, ans Spaceworld or TGS they would push their holiday lineup (holiday season goes a bit longer in Japan, so we’d get some Winter games in there too, or games still a while out from localization).

I still don’t think tipping their hand for future updates multiple times a year is going to benefit them in any way since focus will be constantly on future products and not upcoming ones. It’s complete BS that games need 1+ to years of hype. It’s only when sales are poor that future titles need be revealed frequently to make it look like the upcoming lineup is bulkier than it is: it’s an exercise in hotshotting. A once a year look into the future, especially in the dead of late spring, is IMO the only time in the year a healthy company should be tipping their hand for the future. Once the late summer/autumn roles around, their focus should be on actual products they intend to sell in the short term. They shouldn’t distract from that focus.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.