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Japan 2019: Switch was up 29% YOY, made up 76% of all hardware sales, more

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan 2019: Switch was up 29% YOY, made up 76% of all hardware sales, more

curl-6 said:

I know right, I was surprised nobody thought any of this was noteworthy back when I posted it haha.

Its because literally none of this is new info, we have the weekly Famitsu threads where all this has been known and discussed already.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Poliwrathlord said:
It will be really interesting to see how that percentage of hardware sales holds up next year with 2020 likely being the first year the Switch will face actual competition in Japan, even though PS5 will probably release in November--so actually 2021 will the year that will be interesting to see.

2021 still wont be very interesting, PS4 sold just under 1 million in its first year and there really isnt any reason to expect PS5 to do notably better than that.

NSW did about 4.5 million in 2019, a 10% decline in 2020 followed by a 25% decline in 2021 would put it around 3 million so it wouldnt be unlikely for NSW to sell 3x as much as PS5 in 2021.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Poliwrathlord said:
It will be really interesting to see how that percentage of hardware sales holds up next year with 2020 likely being the first year the Switch will face actual competition in Japan, even though PS5 will probably release in November--so actually 2021 will the year that will be interesting to see.

2021 still wont be very interesting, PS4 sold just under 1 million in its first year and there really isnt any reason to expect PS5 to do notably better than that.

NSW did about 4.5 million in 2019, a 10% decline in 2020 followed by a 25% decline in 2021 would put it around 3 million so it wouldnt be unlikely for NSW to sell 3x as much as PS5 in 2021.

I'd say there's a decent chance PS5 performs notably worse in Japan than PS4, that seems to be the trend, with PS4 looking likely to sell less than PS3 despite having much better Japanese support with a mainline DQ and MH.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
RolStoppable said:
If the PS5 doesn't launch in Japan in 2020, then Switch is going to have more than 80% this year.

I'd say that's still possible to happen even if the PS4 launches in 2020 in Japan. Much tougher of course, but not impossible.

Well, looking at the front page of this site, the Switch made up 93.2% of hardware sales last week.  A few weeks of system-selling software here and there, it's not like the PS4 is going to do anything but get closer and closer to obsolescence until the PS5 launches.

And the PS5 sales will probably be capped by supply when it finally does come out in September-November.

So yeah, I guess it's not impossible.  Switch selling 5 million with everyone else selling 1.25 million isn't an unreasonable estimate.



curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

2021 still wont be very interesting, PS4 sold just under 1 million in its first year and there really isnt any reason to expect PS5 to do notably better than that.

NSW did about 4.5 million in 2019, a 10% decline in 2020 followed by a 25% decline in 2021 would put it around 3 million so it wouldnt be unlikely for NSW to sell 3x as much as PS5 in 2021.

I'd say there's a decent chance PS5 performs notably worse in Japan than PS4, that seems to be the trend, with PS4 looking likely to sell less than PS3 despite having much better Japanese support with a mainline DQ and MH.

Yep, 1 million for PS5 was my best case scenario while 3 million for NSW is my worst case scenario.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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So the pacman was completed and this year, it will close it's mouth entirely



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curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

2021 still wont be very interesting, PS4 sold just under 1 million in its first year and there really isnt any reason to expect PS5 to do notably better than that.

NSW did about 4.5 million in 2019, a 10% decline in 2020 followed by a 25% decline in 2021 would put it around 3 million so it wouldnt be unlikely for NSW to sell 3x as much as PS5 in 2021.

I'd say there's a decent chance PS5 performs notably worse in Japan than PS4, that seems to be the trend, with PS4 looking likely to sell less than PS3 despite having much better Japanese support with a mainline DQ and MH.

With the information we have right now, I'd say there's 99.9% chances the ps5 will do considerably worse than ps4 in japan. Ps4 will end behind the ps3 even though it had everything going for it. From lower starting price, better japanese lineup and little competition. Now the ps5 will face the post peak years of switch followed by the switch 2.



Eagle367 said:
So the pacman was completed and this year, it will close it's mouth entirely

Switch was already at 93% in Japan this past week. If PS5 launches late in Japan like PS4 did, and is region free so that Japan just imports foreign consoles thus driving PS4 sales down even further while not counting for Japanese hardware sales, I think the pacman might just close it's mouth entirely before the holidays even get here.



Nu-13 said:
curl-6 said:

I'd say there's a decent chance PS5 performs notably worse in Japan than PS4, that seems to be the trend, with PS4 looking likely to sell less than PS3 despite having much better Japanese support with a mainline DQ and MH.

With the information we have right now, I'd say there's 99.9% chances the ps5 will do considerably worse than ps4 in japan. Ps4 will end behind the ps3 even though it had everything going for it. From lower starting price, better japanese lineup and little competition. Now the ps5 will face the post peak years of switch followed by the switch 2.

Yeah it seems most likely that the trend will continue. Japanese third parties will throw their all behind PS5, but a system that can only be played at home just doesn't seem to be a good fit for the modern Japanese lifestyle, plus it will miss out on so many of the games they're crazy about like Pokemon, Splatoon, Smash, etc.



The crazy thing is that the evergreens on the Switch (i.e., Pokemon, Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash, and maybe even Splatoon 2) will have the potential to continue maintaining solid sales throughout 2020 and maybe 2021.