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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.22%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.41%
 
Second half of 2023 15 9.04%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.82%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.43%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.61%
 
Second half of 2025 4 2.41%
 
Later than above 1 0.60%
 
Never 107 64.46%
 
Total:166
Blood_Tears said:
It wouldn't matter either way nowadays since Switch had to go the handheld route with the lite and a 100 dollar price discount in order to tie PS4's best year of 2017. Pointless to compare PS4 with a handheld.

PS4 1TB was sold at $199 during the holidays in order to reach that number



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If you consider Switch to be a console then it will end up as the 3rd best selling console ever. Behind PS4 and PS2.
If you consider it a handheld first and accept the 118 million Game Boy sales as a whole then again Switch will likely be the 3rd best selling ever. Behind DS and Game Boy.

What is PS4 at 106 million? I think Switch's max potential is 103 million.



Bite my shiny metal Cockpit!

Nu-13 said:
Farsala said:
It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?

The switch is very likely to outsell the 3ds in japan. But let's go with your numbers anyway. There is no "might" or "barely", the switch is on track to confortably outsell the ps4 in USA. You add that to Japan's huge advantage and the better question is: How will the ps4 make up for that with just Europe + others?

If we give the Switch the 15m advantage in Japan, then we extrapolate the other numbers the same way.

At 24m vs 9m that is from 134% to 266%, so 1.99 or 2 for quick math.

Japan: 266%= 24m

Europe: 61.2%= 26.62m

USA: 108.4%=  38m

Other: 64.8%= 12.11m

World: 94%= 100.73m

But that is just current PS4 numbers, the PS4 will of course keep selling.

To beat the PS4 you need a ratio of ~114% which would be >120m. A 114% ratio would be the equivalent of the Switch selling 29m in Japan and 46m in USA, which I don't see happening. But worse is the Europe and Others ratios.

Last edited by Farsala - on 11 January 2020

Leynos said:
If you consider Switch to be a console then it will end up as the 3rd best selling console ever. Behind PS4 and PS2.
If you consider it a handheld first and accept the 118 million Game Boy sales as a whole then again Switch will likely be the 3rd best selling ever. Behind DS and Game Boy.

What is PS4 at 106 million? I think Switch's max potential is 103 million.

Do you mind sharing how much you think the switch will sell each year from now?



Ps4 was 199$ for like 2 days during the holidays before being sold out. Switch is 199$ since September.



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70% including me, believe that the Switch won't win this fight...I hope the guy who created this thread will remember it in 4 years when we will all be wrong :D



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

Nu-13 said:
Leynos said:
If you consider Switch to be a console then it will end up as the 3rd best selling console ever. Behind PS4 and PS2.
If you consider it a handheld first and accept the 118 million Game Boy sales as a whole then again Switch will likely be the 3rd best selling ever. Behind DS and Game Boy.

What is PS4 at 106 million? I think Switch's max potential is 103 million.

Do you mind sharing how much you think the switch will sell each year from now?

I could if I was this guy



Bite my shiny metal Cockpit!

I think Switch will sell +120 million LT, PS4 will sell +125 million.



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

nier1993 said:

Ps4 was 199$ for like 2 days during the holidays before being sold out. Switch is 199$ since September.

At Amazon only because of limited stock allocation. In last few years PS4 bf bundled in the US it was sold at $199+Spiderman and $199+TLOU+HZD+GOW.

In Europe and Japan it last for a couple of weeks with $199 and 2 free games. I. In a few asean countries you could get PS4 + 3 free games like GOW+GTA5+HZD+3 months of PS+ at $245 price points for a whole month.

Last edited by LGBTDBZBBQ - on 11 January 2020

Amnesia said:
Nu-13 said:

That's easy since it will be the only 9th gen console. But you're free to compare it's sales with the 10th gen systems.

Could you just remind me what are gen 8-9 and 10 for you guys ?

PS4 is Sony’s fourth generation console, while Switch is Nintendo’s seventh generation console.



On the main topic:

As for how quickly it passes PS4. It depends on Nintendo who have a history of artificially lowering demand of earlier products to make way for newer ones. If Nintendo does a smart device style Switch generation 2 model + new form factors - kind of like what they talked about in 2013-2015 and what is capable with the current architecture, but updates rather than replaces the platform, I can see Switch being the highest selling dedicated video game console in history.

With the 3DS, it seemed like Nintendo was experimenting with longevity support (while not fully committing to it since 3DS was a dead-end product), so I can see them doing this. Continuing to support the existing Switch for years to come while putting higher end versions of software on updated tiers. Then dropping mandatory support for earlier models in 2023 or later.

think 2020 will be the key year where we learn how to best answer this question.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 11 January 2020

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