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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 6 4.48%
 
First half of 2023 3 2.24%
 
Second half of 2023 9 6.72%
 
First half of 2024 7 5.22%
 
Second half of 2024 11 8.21%
 
First half of 2025 5 3.73%
 
Second half of 2025 3 2.24%
 
Later than above 1 0.75%
 
Never 89 66.42%
 
Total:134
SKMBlake said:
xl-klaudkil said:
I remembered people thought the wii could beat the ps2 because of its monster sales.

Lets just wait and see if the switch can keep selling as high as its doing now for another 3 years.

Why wouldn't it ? The Switch's sale numbers path isn't similar to the Wii's.

People bought the Wii for Wii Sports, which led to a massive sale drop once they realised it doesn't do much of this for they were looking for (aka not expensive video games and accessories).

Now people are buying the Switch for Zelda, Mario, Pokémon and many more. And they are buying it for exaclty what it is: a gaming console.

So you are saying switch will be the first gaming system ever to not decline in sales?

It will keep selling 20+ each year?

Some people here think the 100mill mark is easy to do.



 

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SKMBlake said:
Nu-13 said:

You have a wrong definition of fairness.

Why ?

Because whether we see that many revision for the nintendo switch or not, how would that be unfair?



xl-klaudkil said:
SKMBlake said:

Why wouldn't it ? The Switch's sale numbers path isn't similar to the Wii's.

People bought the Wii for Wii Sports, which led to a massive sale drop once they realised it doesn't do much of this for they were looking for (aka not expensive video games and accessories).

Now people are buying the Switch for Zelda, Mario, Pokémon and many more. And they are buying it for exaclty what it is: a gaming console.

So you are saying switch will be the first gaming system ever to not decline in sales?

It will keep selling 20+ each year?

Some people here think the 100mill mark is easy to do.

Given the sales it already achieved, the curve and time frame, 100m is easy unless something catastrophic happens.



Hiku said:

It took Switch about 3 years to reach half of PS4's numbers.
If PS4 stops selling today, and Switch keeps selling at the same pace for another 3 years, it'd reach PS4.

But PS4 won't stop selling yet, and Switch's next 3 years are less likely to be as good as its first 3.

I'm not sure if Switch will even get that high. But if it does, then I'd say first half of 2024.

You are correct that the next 3 years aren't likely to be as good as 2017 + 2018 + 2019. It's far more likely that they will be even better.



Nu-13 said:
Hiku said:

It took Switch about 3 years to reach half of PS4's numbers.
If PS4 stops selling today, and Switch keeps selling at the same pace for another 3 years, it'd reach PS4.

But PS4 won't stop selling yet, and Switch's next 3 years are less likely to be as good as its first 3.

I'm not sure if Switch will even get that high. But if it does, then I'd say first half of 2024.

You are correct that the next 3 years aren't likely to be as good as 2017 + 2018 + 2019. It's far more likely that they will be even better.

Soo instead of decline, its going to sell even more? Making it the only game system ever to do that, oke...now that i think about it, the sales of the ps4 are not really that impressive anymore.



 

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I think 2019 will be the best year for switch. It hit the 200$ price with a massive nextgen pokemon with out no real competition aside from 2 consoles on the way out. Next year there are many people that are gonna want ps5 and xsex as holiday gifts just my opinion.



I don't think it will. 2021 will be very telling.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?



I don't think it will, but than again the Switch has been proving most of us wrong from the start. If its still doing well through 2021 and 2022 when the PS5 and Xbox get into a groove it will have a chance.



Farsala said:
It won't, because the Switch 2 will release. If we simply go with VGC's numbers, Switch's stronghold over the PS4 is Japan.

As a % of sales:

World: 47%
Japan: 134%
Europe: 30.6%
USA: 54.2%
Other: 32.4%

Japan is a limited market and the Switch is not outpacing the 3DS there so it is likely to sell less than 25m, a 15m advantage over the PS4. In USA the Switch might surpass the PS4, but only barely. That leaves Europe and Others with 30-33% vs 47% world, how will the Switch catch up there or come close enough?

The switch is very likely to outsell the 3ds in Japan. But let's go with your numbers anyway. There is no "might" or "barely", the switch is on track to confortably outsell the ps4 in USA. You add that to Japan's huge advantage and the better question is: How will the ps4 make up for that with just Europe + others?