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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Ryng said:
Azhraell said:

Launches aligned the difference is 1.5m, even if we consider switch released in march (I think) the gap is not big at all. PS4 destroys in europe way harder than that. Some people also underestimate for how long PS systems sell, I doubt switch will have the same longevity like most of their consoles.

Feel free to quote me when switch outsells ps4 though

*over 2 million

The comparation now stop right after PS4 had another holiday, yet even with that advantage Switch is beating it by a good margin.
This holiday for example, so in like 6 months, the gap will be as big as 5/6 million. Switch will probabily beat PS4 by around 10 million in USA and around 20 million in Japan, that's a total of 30 million in those 2 markets. (and there are other market as well where Switch sells more, the rest of America for example, France, China are a few examples)

And we'll see about legs, Switch has already shown that has a different sales trend than the past Nintendo consoles.

This post is delusional.

SW is trailing 3DS, a console that will end 15 million or so ahead of PS4. Considering Nintendo's generational decline in Japan, all the data points to another decline.

newwil7l said:
Azhraell said:
Probably never, Japan is not enough to carry Nintendo sales vs Sony in europe and rest of the world

Switch is definitely going to beat PS4 in America as well though. Europe is really the only area it won't stand a chance but I don't think that will be enough to keep PS4 ahead.

PS4 is a global console. It sells in Africa, Middle East, South America, the Rest of Asia and the entirety of Europe ( a market notably bigger than the US).

Certain people are becoming disillusioned with the global perspective simply because we only get concrete data in Japan and US, two markets SW is notably above PS4.



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src said:
Ryng said:

*over 2 million

The comparation now stop right after PS4 had another holiday, yet even with that advantage Switch is beating it by a good margin.
This holiday for example, so in like 6 months, the gap will be as big as 5/6 million. Switch will probabily beat PS4 by around 10 million in USA and around 20 million in Japan, that's a total of 30 million in those 2 markets. (and there are other market as well where Switch sells more, the rest of America for example, France, China are a few examples)

And we'll see about legs, Switch has already shown that has a different sales trend than the past Nintendo consoles.

This post is delusional.

SW is trailing 3DS, a console that will end 15 million or so ahead of PS4. Considering Nintendo's generational decline in Japan, all the data points to another decline.

newwil7l said:

Switch is definitely going to beat PS4 in America as well though. Europe is really the only area it won't stand a chance but I don't think that will be enough to keep PS4 ahead.

PS4 is a global console. It sells in Africa, Middle East, South America, the Rest of Asia and the entirety of Europe ( a market notably bigger than the US).

Certain people are becoming disillusioned with the global perspective simply because we only get concrete data in Japan and US, two markets SW is notably above PS4.

This post lacks context, and thus leads you to wrong conclusions.

Switch is trailing the 3DS in Japan... but the advantage of the 3DS is shrinking fast, as the latter built it's advantage on a huge pricecut and a new model, and those effects are already over and 3DS weekly sales dropping down hard while the Switch is gaining new heights and reaching new horizons. Switch will overtake the 3DS launch aligned next year, as this year is the last one the 3DS had somewhat decent sales in Japan (~3.1M), which should be barely enough to keep the Switch at bay with the lead it had built up in the past. But next year the 3DS stands no chance as the sales drop down to 2.1M, less than the Switch sold Year-to-date.

Switch is also a global console. You might be surprised, but if you go to Charts in the header and look up Platform Totals, you'll find that the Switch is already on the 9th spot there. While the PS4 will most probably win this category over the Switch, the lead should end up being less than 5M and is more than cancelled out bei either North America or Japan.

This leaves us with Europe, and the PS4 will need to build it's lead there. But the Switch, while not nearly selling as well as the PS4 over there, is still doing quite decent and should sell at least as well as the PS3 or Wii did.

All this means that the advantage in Europe will be about 20M (give or take) and up to 5M in RoW. And 25M should be manageable with US and Japan unless the Switch crashes down like the Wii did, but the reasons why the Wii crashed are not given for the Switch.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 17 June 2020

Bofferbrauer2 said:
src said:

This post is delusional.

SW is trailing 3DS, a console that will end 15 million or so ahead of PS4. Considering Nintendo's generational decline in Japan, all the data points to another decline.

PS4 is a global console. It sells in Africa, Middle East, South America, the Rest of Asia and the entirety of Europe ( a market notably bigger than the US).

Certain people are becoming disillusioned with the global perspective simply because we only get concrete data in Japan and US, two markets SW is notably above PS4.

This post lacks context, and thus leads you to wrong conclusions.

Switch is trailing the 3DS in Japan... but the advantage of the 3DS is shrinking fast, as the latter built it's advantage on a huge pricecut and a new model, and those effects are already over and 3DS weekly sales dropping down hard while the Switch is gaining new heights and reaching new horizons. Switch will overtake the 3DS launch aligned next year, as this year is the last one the 3DS had somewhat decent sales in Japan (~3.1M), which should be barely enough to keep the Switch at bay with the lead it had built up in the past. But next year the 3DS stands no chance as the sales drop down to 2.1M, less than the Switch sold Year-to-date.

Switch is also a global console. You might be surprised, but if you go to Charts in the header and look up Platform Totals, you'll find that the Switch is already on the 9th spot there. While the PS4 will most probably win this category over the Switch, the lead should end up being less than 5M and is more than cancelled out bei either North America or Japan.

This leaves us with Europe, and the PS4 will need to build it's lead there. But the Switch, while not nearly selling as well as the PS4 over there, is still doing quite decent and should sell at least as well as the PS3 or Wii did.

All this means that the advantage in Europe will be about 20M (give or take) and up to 5M in RoW. And 25M should be manageable with US and Japan unless the Switch crashes down like the Wii did, but the reasons why the Wii crashed are not given for the Switch.

SW is 1.8 million behind 3DS at this moment in time. SW is not gaining new heights in terms of hardware, it still hasn't beat the 3DS peak of 5.5 million.

Your data is also unreliable. Refer to official data from the actual manufacturers.

PS4 sellthrough in US + Japan = 36 + 9 million  = 45 million. Thats 45/110 = 41%

NSW sellthrough US + Japan = 35.56 million per their FY report = 35.56/55.77 = 64%

To even compare PS4's global reach compared to SW is incorrect. Not to mention PS4 still has not got a price cut as well.



src said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

This post lacks context, and thus leads you to wrong conclusions.

Switch is trailing the 3DS in Japan... but the advantage of the 3DS is shrinking fast, as the latter built it's advantage on a huge pricecut and a new model, and those effects are already over and 3DS weekly sales dropping down hard while the Switch is gaining new heights and reaching new horizons. Switch will overtake the 3DS launch aligned next year, as this year is the last one the 3DS had somewhat decent sales in Japan (~3.1M), which should be barely enough to keep the Switch at bay with the lead it had built up in the past. But next year the 3DS stands no chance as the sales drop down to 2.1M, less than the Switch sold Year-to-date.

Switch is also a global console. You might be surprised, but if you go to Charts in the header and look up Platform Totals, you'll find that the Switch is already on the 9th spot there. While the PS4 will most probably win this category over the Switch, the lead should end up being less than 5M and is more than cancelled out bei either North America or Japan.

This leaves us with Europe, and the PS4 will need to build it's lead there. But the Switch, while not nearly selling as well as the PS4 over there, is still doing quite decent and should sell at least as well as the PS3 or Wii did.

All this means that the advantage in Europe will be about 20M (give or take) and up to 5M in RoW. And 25M should be manageable with US and Japan unless the Switch crashes down like the Wii did, but the reasons why the Wii crashed are not given for the Switch.

SW is 1.8 million behind 3DS at this moment in time. SW is not gaining new heights in terms of hardware, it still hasn't beat the 3DS peak of 5.5 million.

Your data is also unreliable. Refer to official data from the actual manufacturers.

PS4 sellthrough in US + Japan = 36 + 9 million  = 45 million. Thats 45/110 = 41%

NSW sellthrough US + Japan = 35.56 million per their FY report = 35.56/55.77 = 64%

To even compare PS4's global reach compared to SW is incorrect. Not to mention PS4 still has not got a price cut as well.

You've got to be trolling because you are ignoring context and trends. 6 months ago Switch was trailing by over 3 million, its now down to 1.8 million. It doesn't matter what it sold in 2017-2019, what matters is what its selling now.

PS4 has still not got a price cut? It has had 2 permanent price drops with regular holiday discounts.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Simply never, Switch is lagging in Europe just 3 years after its launch. So, all things considered Switch is declining like 3DS and will fall off before the 100m target. I am not sure if it will outsell even the Wii. At least Switch had a good 3 years run.



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JapaneseGamesLover said:
Simply never, Switch is lagging in Europe just 3 years after its launch. So, all things considered Switch is declining like 3DS and will fall off before the 100m target. I am not sure if it will outsell even the Wii. At least Switch had a good 3 years run.

Where??? I just see the opposite happening with the Switch breaking sales records, not crashing down.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
JapaneseGamesLover said:
Simply never, Switch is lagging in Europe just 3 years after its launch. So, all things considered Switch is declining like 3DS and will fall off before the 100m target. I am not sure if it will outsell even the Wii. At least Switch had a good 3 years run.

Where??? I just see the opposite happening with the Switch breaking sales records, not crashing down.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242665/ps4-outselling-all-other-videogame-consoles-combined-in-europe-despite-being-7-years-old/

Globally NS is barely selling 90k more than PS4, despite sold at the same price, with PS4 being a 7 years old system. Nintendo fans should understand without Japan, PS4 is lowkey selling the same consoles globally and thats with animal crossing hype for Switch. So, these record breaking arguments of yours dont build up. The forum has spoken, 122 members said never and never remains. Only 2 or 3 Nintendo fans are pushing this narrative of NS outselling PS5 LTD.  



Bullshit :p I don't understand people who cannot see what Nintendo and Switch has managed. Don't speak about Mixcrosoft and Xbox .... 100 million is a given and Nintendo has a lot of surprises... Who expected all that animal crossing thing? The Pokemon sales? The ring fit ? There are many weapons that Nintendo has still to use... A switch pro (lie you know... ps4 pro..? ), price cuts, new releases (Metroid, Mario Kart 9, a new Mario 2d game, new eps)... Just sit on your seat and enjoy :) We've seen many times, where a poll's votes go...



JapaneseGamesLover said:
Simply never, Switch is lagging in Europe just 3 years after its launch. So, all things considered Switch is declining like 3DS and will fall off before the 100m target. I am not sure if it will outsell even the Wii. At least Switch had a good 3 years run.

In the US, Switch just had the best sales for a month of May in 11 years (530k) and it also scored the top largest non-holiday months ever with March and April 2020 (1,002k and 808k). Yeah it's declining big time, I sure hope it continues to decline like this.

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 18 June 2020

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I think never, i am a huge (and only) Nintendo fan. but the legs of Playstation and it wider demographic scope will always put it first.



Switch!!!