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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.24%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.42%
 
Second half of 2023 15 9.09%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.85%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.48%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.64%
 
Second half of 2025 3 1.82%
 
Later than above 1 0.61%
 
Never 107 64.85%
 
Total:165
padib said:
curl-6 said:

FFS not this shit again, I'd hoped we'd left this ridiculous claim in 2018. Smash Ultimate is no more a port of the Wii U game than Brawl is a port of Melee. By every established and rational definition, it is a sequel, not a port.

Oh FFS man!! Not having to deal with shit like this again!! :OOOOOOOOOOOOOooo

Smash U is the same core game as Ultimate, doesn't matter if that makes you angry. Here, let me prove it to you very easily.

I played Smash melee for years, the moment I picked up brawl, I had trouble playing.

I played Smash U for years, the moment I picked up Ultimate, I was kicking ass, could probably wipe you off the game even if I played it only once.

Easy

Do you consider new Call of Duties to be sequels?



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victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

You're the one who wanted to bet something and avatar control is the usual bet around here but I'm willing to bet you something else since it's a guaranteed win for me.



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padib said:
MasonADC said:

Smash is a brand new game 

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.

It is absolutely NOT a port. I'd argue there's a bigger step from Smash U to Ultimate than from Brawl to U.



Signature goes here!

TruckOSaurus said:
padib said:

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.

It is absolutely NOT a port. I'd argue there's a bigger step from Smash U to Ultimate than from Brawl to U.

There's no way he actually believes it's a port. It's an absurd position. I feel like everyone still espousing this nonsense is just trying to get a rise out of people. I don't take people like him seriously. He's being disingenuous.



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

Switch is selling at a much faster pace than the 3DS though, despite being much more expensive.

It's already over 10 million ahead of where 3DS was at the same point, and the gap is widening.

And Switch is a totally different product to PS and Xbox; it doesn't sell for the same reasons and occupies a different niche. Since PS5 and XSX won't offer gaming on the go or games like Pokemon and Smash, the arrival of those systems won't supplant Switch's value proposition and therefore won't significantly affect its sales.

That's where you are wrong, both ps5 and xbox series X will offer gaming on the go, with the 5G in the future, and internet everywhere, you can access your ps5 and xbox games streamed to your tablet, phone, laptop etc, I can bet with you that both sony and Microsoft will present such a service very soon. I am certain of this because I'm always right about these things, I've followed gaming for 30 years.

The switch being 10 million over the 3ds is nothing to boost, the 3ds hasn't caught up to the ps3 or xbox 360 or wii yet, let alone ps4 numbers. My point remains, following your own graphic, and logic from the 3ds, wii, etc, I always said the switch will sell a lot more than the 3ds, 100 million easy in 4-5 years, but will not catch up to ps4 which will be minimum 140 million by that time. The best the switch could do is 120 million, ONLY IF Nintendo doesn't release a new switch 2 which is highly unlikely, because Nintendo never kept the same console for more than 7-8 years without a new one.

PS4 140M+??? I don't even believe it will reach 130M, let alone over 140. Sales are already dropping fast, and that drop will only grow fast the closer we get to the PS5 release.

PS4 is already over 33% down. Even if it stayed that way, PS4 would sell under 10M this year already if it wouldn't drop any further. 



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padib said:
curl-6 said:

FFS not this shit again, I'd hoped we'd left this ridiculous claim in 2018. Smash Ultimate is no more a port of the Wii U game than Brawl is a port of Melee. By every established and rational definition, it is a sequel, not a port.

Oh FFS man!! Not having to deal with shit like this again!! :OOOOOOOOOOOOOooo

Smash U is the same core game as Ultimate, doesn't matter if that makes you angry. Here, let me prove it to you very easily.

I played Smash melee for years, the moment I picked up brawl, I had trouble playing.

I played Smash U for years, the moment I picked up Ultimate, I was kicking ass, could probably wipe you off the game even if I played it only once.

Easy

After playing Bayonetta 1, I was able to get into Bayonetta 2 straight away.

After playing Uncharted 2, I was able to get into Uncharted 3 straight away.

After playing Donkey Kong Country Returns, I was able to get into Tropical Freeze straight away.

Your example proves nothing.



I can't get enough of these "I've been around for 1000 years, I'm better than you and I can see the future" kind of people. They are an infinite source of fun and laughter xD



padib said:
DonFerrari said:

Just this year PS4 shall do about 10M, and following a slower drop than PS3 (because it is less expensive and had lower extra years) after PS4 release it shall do like another 6M in 2021 and 5M or so in the remaining years. Most projections/regression methods would put PS4 at 130M.

Switch is nearing its peak and no Nintendo system have sustained much after that to ensure more than doubling the sales.

Yes, for PS4, you're right. My prediction is one year late. 

@DonFerrari Okay, I corrected my mistake.

Switch

Current sales: 50.5m
YoY Feb 2021: 17m (67.5m)
YoY Feb 2022: 18m (75.5m)
YoY Feb 2023: 18m (93.5m)
YoY Feb 2024: 15m (108.5m)
YoY Feb 2025: 13m (121.5m)
YoY Feb 2026: 10m (131.5m)

The PS4 is selling 10.8m per year right in 2020, in 2019 it was selling ~18m last year. I see this trend for PS4

YoY Feb 2021: 10.8m (117.8m)
YoY Feb 2021: 6m (123.8m)
YoY Feb 2022: 4m (127.8m)
YoY Feb 2023: 2m (129.8m)
YoY Feb 2024: 1m (130.8m)
YoY Feb 2025: 0.5m (131.3m)
YoY Feb 2026: 0.25m (131.5m)


In my opinion the Switch will outsell the PS4 during the 2025 holidays.

I really don't see Switch having this double peak and for such a long time and then such a slow drop. But well we can only be sure when several years pass.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

How will the PS4 reach 150 million consoles sold exactly? It was about 41 million consoles away at the end of 2019 and last year it sold 14.7m. The January 2020 numbers are at 20% below 2019 numbers and the release of the PS5 will definitely affect its end of year numbers.

Shipped at the end of 2019: 108.9m
Shipped at the end of 2020: 120m (about 11m, that would be only a 25% drop, it could be sharper the PS3 dropped 31% in the year PS4 was released)
Shipped at the end of 2021: 125.5m(about 5.5m, that would be a 50% drop,for reference the PS3 dropped 59% the year following the PS4's release)

The way I see it, the road to 130m is very doable but 150m is out of the question.

I can bet you on this if you want, it will reach 150 million easily just like the ps2 reached 155million, sales aligned the ps4 is outselling the ps2 WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL PRICE DROP.

Sony just needs to drop the price to 150dollars and the thing will easily sell to people who cant afford new consoles, or people who already have a ps4 but gets defective.

And are we forgetting the biggest ps4 game ever is still to be released this year? Game of year 2020 will most likely be Last of us 2, a ps4 exclusive, if that together with a permanent price drop, doesn't sell consoles I don't know what will.

Also, you counted 2021? do you even realize that's only 1 year after ps5 launches? Go check how many years the ps1 and ps2 sold after the new consoles came.

One more thing, black Friday sales will be only current gen consoles, not the new ones which most likely will be out of stock. A cheap bundle with Last of us 2 will sell a lot, specially to PC people who do not want to buy a 450dollars console + 70 dollars game = 520 dollars while they could buy it for 180 dollars just for that game.

I agree



victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

Underscored: Sure, Sony could halve the price of the PS4. But guess what: They do so already during BF, and the sales are still dropping during that period.

Also, doing that now would be suicide for them. They could do so, but only absolute enthusiasts would then go and buy a PS5, which will be several times more expensive - the exact thing that almost killed the PS3 at launch btw. And that wasn't the only reason why the PS2 kept selling: 3rd world countries got introduced with the PS2 only after the PS3 was released in the west, but the PS4 launched in these countries almost the same time as in the west. Also, many, many bought a PS2 only for Singstar or Buzz - you know, the kind of casuals that later went to the Wii, Kinect and finally smartphones.

bolded: Wrong console, that was the PS3. As a BD-Player the PS4 is way overpriced. I got my BD-3D player in 2013 for about 130€, now they cost half that. A BD-4K player also only costs about 120€, still cheaper than a PS4 even at your purported price tag. No one would buy a PS4 these days just to have a BD-Player.

Additionally, I want to stress that most of the PS2 sales came from the US. But there, Microsoft has now put up much stronger competition than the PS2 had, even with an XBO with middling sales worldwide, as more than half of them come from the US. Playstation has lost part of the US market to the Xbox which was in Sony's hands during the PS2 era.

Long story short, the PS4 doesn't have anything that could give it something near the legs that the PS2 had. PS2 had tons of boosters after the PS3 got revealed, but most of them are not available for the PS4 anymore, so the only reason why the PS4 would sell well into the future would be that Sony royally botches the PS5 launch and makes it too expensive for most people (aka over $599).

Finally, one thing that you can check here is that Playstation plus Xbox each gen results into around 175M. That's true both for PS2/Xbox and PS360, and it looks increasingly like PS4/XBO won't be far off, either.