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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

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When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 7 4.24%
 
First half of 2023 4 2.42%
 
Second half of 2023 15 9.09%
 
First half of 2024 8 4.85%
 
Second half of 2024 14 8.48%
 
First half of 2025 6 3.64%
 
Second half of 2025 3 1.82%
 
Later than above 1 0.61%
 
Never 107 64.85%
 
Total:165
victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

Switch is selling at a much faster pace than the 3DS though, despite being much more expensive.

It's already over 10 million ahead of where 3DS was at the same point, and the gap is widening.

And Switch is a totally different product to PS and Xbox; it doesn't sell for the same reasons and occupies a different niche. Since PS5 and XSX won't offer gaming on the go or games like Pokemon and Smash, the arrival of those systems won't supplant Switch's value proposition and therefore won't significantly affect its sales.

That's where you are wrong, both ps5 and xbox series X will offer gaming on the go, with the 5G in the future, and internet everywhere, you can access your ps5 and xbox games streamed to your tablet, phone, laptop etc, I can bet with you that both sony and Microsoft will present such a service very soon. I am certain of this because I'm always right about these things, I've followed gaming for 30 years.

The switch being 10 million over the 3ds is nothing to boost, the 3ds hasn't caught up to the ps3 or xbox 360 or wii yet, let alone ps4 numbers. My point remains, following your own graphic, and logic from the 3ds, wii, etc, I always said the switch will sell a lot more than the 3ds, 100 million easy in 4-5 years, but will not catch up to ps4 which will be minimum 140 million by that time. The best the switch could do is 120 million, ONLY IF Nintendo doesn't release a new switch 2 which is highly unlikely, because Nintendo never kept the same console for more than 7-8 years without a new one.

I very much doubt streaming PS5 to one's phone/tablet will become a mainstream form of gaming. It won't be worth the hassle to the average consumer, they'll just wait til they get home to play. Folks said the same thing about Remote Play on Vita making 3DS obsolete.

We don't actually disagree much on lifetime Switch/PS4 sales it seems, I simply got the wrong impression from your posts that you were pushing the "it'll fizzle out soon" angle, my bad.



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kazuyamishima said:
ArchangelMadzz said:

The Wii Never hit 25m and you think the Switch will do it in consecutive years?

He’s predicting the switch to sell 27 millions this year. Without any price cut or new revision...

This is why sometimes I don't even know why I bother commenting here, obviously a lot of users here don't use their brains, or are running on wishful thinking and not logic. There is no way, short of a huge price drop and games sales that could make the switch sell 54 million in 2 years. Nintendo consoles always sells mostly to the fans in the first year, Nintendo doesn't have the broad appeal of playstation, in fact most people I know do not even like Nintendo games, many gamers do not like colourful kid friendly games, and lets be honest, games like Mario are mostly for kids, if you really think about the story and the characters.

The biggest Nintendo base is kids, and parents who buy them the consoles and games. Just like the 3ds, no adult would be seen out of the house playing a 3ds, very rare, but I saw kids almost daily with a 3ds.

Portable gaming is less desired now than 10 years back, mobile phones are reaching the power of the switch, or even surpassed it, so most people who want a quick game to kill the time would just pick up their phones and not take a second device which doesn't even fit in one's pocket.

Surely is nice to be able to play massive games on the go, in theory, but who really has time to play 2 or 3 hours straight on a train or on a break? No one. Most people have like 30min to kill at one point, so mobile phones are more convenient. 

The only time I ever took my switch out of the house was when I was flying. So like, 12 hours per year, not worth having such an expensive portable just for that.

I don't know about US, but here in the UK its very very rare to see anyone with a portable console, and back in Portugal it just doesn't happen at all, even kids are choosing tablets over portable consoles, because you can do so much more on a tablet, like youtube, facebook, etc. Mostly because kids do not have 70 dollars to be buying a new game.


User was banned for this Post. ~ Pemalite.

Last edited by Pemalite - on 08 February 2020

victor83fernandes said:
kazuyamishima said:

He’s predicting the switch to sell 27 millions this year. Without any price cut or new revision...

This is why sometimes I don't even know why I bother commenting here, obviously a lot of users here don't use their brains, or are running on wishful thinking and not logic. There is no way, short of a huge price drop and games sales that could make the switch sell 54 million in 2 years. Nintendo consoles always sells mostly to the fans in the first year, Nintendo doesn't have the broad appeal of playstation, in fact most people I know do not even like Nintendo games, many gamers do not like colourful kid friendly games, and lets be honest, games like Mario are mostly for kids, if you really think about the story and the characters.

The biggest Nintendo base is kids, and parents who buy them the consoles and games.

Mario et al aren't "mostly for kids", they're for all ages. Adults enjoy them just as much as children.



victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

Guess who is above the ps4 aligned? Starts with S and rhymes with twitch. At least follow your own arguments.



curl-6 said:
victor83fernandes said:

That's where you are wrong, both ps5 and xbox series X will offer gaming on the go, with the 5G in the future, and internet everywhere, you can access your ps5 and xbox games streamed to your tablet, phone, laptop etc, I can bet with you that both sony and Microsoft will present such a service very soon. I am certain of this because I'm always right about these things, I've followed gaming for 30 years.

The switch being 10 million over the 3ds is nothing to boost, the 3ds hasn't caught up to the ps3 or xbox 360 or wii yet, let alone ps4 numbers. My point remains, following your own graphic, and logic from the 3ds, wii, etc, I always said the switch will sell a lot more than the 3ds, 100 million easy in 4-5 years, but will not catch up to ps4 which will be minimum 140 million by that time. The best the switch could do is 120 million, ONLY IF Nintendo doesn't release a new switch 2 which is highly unlikely, because Nintendo never kept the same console for more than 7-8 years without a new one.

I very much doubt streaming PS5 to one's phone/tablet will become a mainstream form of gaming. It won't be worth the hassle to the average consumer, they'll just wait til they get home to play. Folks said the same thing about Remote Play on Vita making 3DS obsolete.

We don't actually disagree much on lifetime Switch/PS4 sales it seems, I simply got the wrong impression from your posts that you were pushing the "it'll fizzle out soon" angle, my bad.

Anything is possible, no one can actually predict the future, example, the ps5 price could be lower than expected therefore making the ps4 less desirable, the switch could have a big price drop with bundled game.

But the point you make about the hassle of playing on a streaming service is almost as much hassle as to carry a switch with you at all time, and having an extra device to charge. Like I said, the future of the internet will most likely allow everyone to easily stream to a phone, but the internet and smart phones has made the portable dedicated consoles more of a kids thing, because we all have now youtube, internet, books, etc on our phones that get bigger screens and more power and faster every year.

There's nothing more convenient than a phone for media consumption, because its a thing everyone already carries in their pockets everywhere. And this will be enhanced with 5G availability in the future.

Here in the Uk I see almost everyone on their phones either facebook, books, videos, browsing messaging and the casual games, last time I saw someone with a portable dedicated console was months ago, then again I'm not in the big city, but I believe this trend is worldwide.

Lets not forget that switch games are still 60-70 dollars on top of the price of the console. Most casuals will just get cheap games on their phones.

In fact, I have been playing games for 30 years, and spent a fortune in Gameboy batteries, but I was a kid, life was different and we didn't have the internet neither smart phones. I would not buy a dedicated portable if I could not connect to my projector, so I would have never bought a switch Lite even at half price.

Suffice to say, as gamers, we must be happy to have so many options, so many great games, and more people every year enjoying this amazing hobby, I hope both sony, Nintendo and Microsoft sell as much as they can, and I hope the gaming industry continues to grow and evolve, I respect the most Sony because they are investing in VR, which after buying it, I can confirm it is the future of gaming. But I also respect Nintendo for giving us a different style of games or else gaming would become boring with everyone just doing the same.

With the power of the new consoles, the sky is the limit for developers, so I can only imagine what we will be playing by the end of next gen, considering that I am playing red dead redemption 2 in 4K and I am in awe of the little details and technical stuff in the game, I cant imagine that x5



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Nu-13 said:
victor83fernandes said:

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

Guess who is above the ps4 aligned? Starts with S and rhymes with twitch. At least follow your own arguments.

Are you even reading my comments? I already explained that Nintendo never had the same selling power as playstation in the LONG TERM



victor83fernandes said:
curl-6 said:

I very much doubt streaming PS5 to one's phone/tablet will become a mainstream form of gaming. It won't be worth the hassle to the average consumer, they'll just wait til they get home to play. Folks said the same thing about Remote Play on Vita making 3DS obsolete.

We don't actually disagree much on lifetime Switch/PS4 sales it seems, I simply got the wrong impression from your posts that you were pushing the "it'll fizzle out soon" angle, my bad.

Anything is possible, no one can actually predict the future, example, the ps5 price could be lower than expected therefore making the ps4 less desirable, the switch could have a big price drop with bundled game.

But the point you make about the hassle of playing on a streaming service is almost as much hassle as to carry a switch with you at all time, and having an extra device to charge. Like I said, the future of the internet will most likely allow everyone to easily stream to a phone, but the internet and smart phones has made the portable dedicated consoles more of a kids thing, because we all have now youtube, internet, books, etc on our phones that get bigger screens and more power and faster every year.

There's nothing more convenient than a phone for media consumption, because its a thing everyone already carries in their pockets everywhere. And this will be enhanced with 5G availability in the future.

Here in the Uk I see almost everyone on their phones either facebook, books, videos, browsing messaging and the casual games, last time I saw someone with a portable dedicated console was months ago, then again I'm not in the big city, but I believe this trend is worldwide.

Lets not forget that switch games are still 60-70 dollars on top of the price of the console. Most casuals will just get cheap games on their phones.

In fact, I have been playing games for 30 years, and spent a fortune in Gameboy batteries, but I was a kid, life was different and we didn't have the internet neither smart phones. I would not buy a dedicated portable if I could not connect to my projector, so I would have never bought a switch Lite even at half price.

Suffice to say, as gamers, we must be happy to have so many options, so many great games, and more people every year enjoying this amazing hobby, I hope both sony, Nintendo and Microsoft sell as much as they can, and I hope the gaming industry continues to grow and evolve, I respect the most Sony because they are investing in VR, which after buying it, I can confirm it is the future of gaming. But I also respect Nintendo for giving us a different style of games or else gaming would become boring with everyone just doing the same.

With the power of the new consoles, the sky is the limit for developers, so I can only imagine what we will be playing by the end of next gen, considering that I am playing red dead redemption 2 in 4K and I am in awe of the little details and technical stuff in the game, I cant imagine that x5

It's just that a lot of folks used the point about everyone already owning a phone to claim "doom" on the Switch three years ago, yet it has still gone on to be wildly successful. I really don't see the arrival of PS5/XSX affecting the Switch in any meaningful way as they offer such radically different value propositions.



curl-6 said:
padib said:

No it isn't. It's to Smash U was Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is to Mario Kart 8.

FFS not this shit again, I'd hoped we'd left this ridiculous claim in 2018. Smash Ultimate is no more a port of the Wii U game than Brawl is a port of Melee. By every established and rational definition, it is a sequel, not a port.

Oh FFS man!! Not having to deal with shit like this again!! :OOOOOOOOOOOOOooo

Smash U is the same core game as Ultimate, doesn't matter if that makes you angry. Here, let me prove it to you very easily.

I played Smash melee for years, the moment I picked up brawl, I had trouble playing.

I played Smash U for years, the moment I picked up Ultimate, I was kicking ass, could probably wipe you off the game even if I played it only once.

Easy



padib said:
curl-6 said:

FFS not this shit again, I'd hoped we'd left this ridiculous claim in 2018. Smash Ultimate is no more a port of the Wii U game than Brawl is a port of Melee. By every established and rational definition, it is a sequel, not a port.

Oh FFS man!! Not having to deal with shit like this again!! :OOOOOOOOOOOOOooo

Smash U is the same core game as Ultimate, doesn't matter if that makes you angry. Here, let me prove it to you very easily.

I played Smash melee for years, the moment I picked up brawl, I had trouble playing.

I played Smash U for years, the moment I picked up Ultimate, I was kicking ass, could probably wipe you off the game even if I played it only once.

Easy

Gee, I never thought about it this way...so enlightening!!

I guess all 2D Mario games must be ports of the original Super Mario Bros. since the mechanics are the same, it's easy to pick up and play any given title without much difficulty. Great new line of  thinking... 

Last edited by PortisheadBiscuit - on 09 February 2020

padib said:
curl-6 said:

FFS not this shit again, I'd hoped we'd left this ridiculous claim in 2018. Smash Ultimate is no more a port of the Wii U game than Brawl is a port of Melee. By every established and rational definition, it is a sequel, not a port.

Oh FFS man!! Not having to deal with shit like this again!! :OOOOOOOOOOOOOooo

Smash U is the same core game as Ultimate, doesn't matter if that makes you angry. Here, let me prove it to you very easily.

I played Smash melee for years, the moment I picked up brawl, I had trouble playing.

I played Smash U for years, the moment I picked up Ultimate, I was kicking ass, could probably wipe you off the game even if I played it only once.

Easy

Your ability as an amazing gamer doesn’t prove anything