If I've said it once, I've said it a hundred times. Switch is going to become the top selling system of all time. In a few years people will look back and see that 2017-2018 was really Switch's slow mode. I just really started to get going in 2019 and it's still accelerating. It's going to easily outsell the PS4 in a few years and then just keep going.

Switch is never going to top PS4...., is never going to be the best selling Nintendo hardware ever....., it's probably never going to be even the best Nintendo "homeconsole"  sold ever either....

Some of you keep living in a world of dreams when it comes to Switch sales....I was realistic during 2018 (and i was right in my predictions) and i left myself been fooled by some of you during 2019 thinking Switch was going to surpass 20M in 2019 and in the end it was a mistake. Time to go back to my senses in 2020.

Switch is going to sell less this year than in 2019. It's going to be affected by next gen console launches from November and December this year and so on (and i don' care what people said even if is someone of Nintendo, it will affect the console in one way or another), and it's still a question if it's going to reach 100M lifetime.

Most of the most iconic Nintendo gaming franchises have already launched in the console. The best years of the console library are probably already behind. Without heavy 3rd party support it's going to be impossible to keep the pace. And i don't expect any heavy price cuts either.

We already know Switch sold to consumers this (rounding numbers, it's not 100% accurate numbers, but to get a general idea):

13M by the end of 2017

29M by the end of 2018 (around 16M sold during 2018)

48M by the end of 2019 (around 19M sold during 2019)

And I expect something like this from next few years:

65M by the end of 2020 (around 17M sold during 2020)

77M by the end of 2021 (around 12M sold during 2021)

87M by the end of 2022 (around 10M sold during 2022)

95M by the end of 2023 (around 8M sold during 2023)

Maybe some millions more after that, but who knows if enough to reach 100M lifetime.

This is my optimistic prediction (i considered Switch selling around 85-90M before Lite was announced, but i guess a 100$ cheaper version will help add 10M sales more), in fact, because i won't be surprised if it drops even more after 2020. In conclusion, if it reaches 100M lifetime i will be surprised and i repeat again and again: it will be a monumental success considering the console sold at a higher price than Wii and had barely any 3rd party AAA support. But by that time we will already know that PS4 sold around 125-130M lifetime, so no..., is not going to outsell PS4, sorry.

Wii was around 57M units sold to consumers after 36 months (and its 36th month is end of November 2009, because if we count the gap after 37 or 38 months, the gap is even greater). Switch is going to be around what? 52M?. The real question still is if Switch is going to outsell Wii instead. People should not aim that high yet because Switch hasn't proved yet that it can still sell a lot after year 3-4 of the console life, and except NDS, any Nintendo console has done that. There's nothing pointing out that Switch will avoid dropping in sales like Wii or 3DS did..., so we should be cautious about such predictions for Switch.

But 2020 is going to give us a very definitive idea of what the future holds up for Switch, for sales and its games, so we'll see....

I'll focus just on that or else it would take all day. You say the switch hasn't proved it can sell a lot after year 3-4. That is utterly laughable. The switch has sold a high number in it's first year, increased in it's second year, increased once more on the 3rd year (we're at the end of it) and is on track to increase again for it's 4th year... All without a pricecut yet. This sales curve show the opposite of what you claim. There's no denying reality.

I say that both colafitte and liquid gamer's prediction have no chance to come true but liquid gamer's will be WAY closer.

Switch has sold a lot in its 1st, 2nd and 3rd year...., and what?, you expect Switch to grow every year because of that?

How is going to be on track if it not even started its 4th year yet!??!? That doesn't make any sense....And how having a model being 100$ is not a kind of pricecut "yet"??. What the sales curve shows, is that Nov-Dec 2019 did not had the same growth YOY like the rest of the year.

I've never, NEVER, ever said 2018 was going to be peak year, and i've never said Switch was going to have difficulties surpassing 3DS, i always said Switch was going to sell 85M minimum. Where did you get this from??. in 2018 i said that 2019 was going to be a flat year if there was not going to be any revisions or price cuts, something that would have become true if there was not a Lite version. You probably are mistaken me for someone else... I can't have arguments like this if you spread lies about me without any repercussion. Now i have to spend time defending myself when i should not need to....

And i highballed what?!?!? LOL. So, there is a poll in January 2019 asking what we expect Switch is going to do that year. I said then if i have to choose i think 18M, and like i always stated back then, my predictions were based without counting pricecuts or revisions, that if that would happen my prediction would be wrong (but i guess this important point is always ignored....), then we are in March and we see that Switch is doing 20% better than in 2018, and i just admit that the console is doing better than i expected at January and that probably is going to do a little bit better, and then after Lite is announced, LIKE EVERYONE HERE, i expect even another boost from that prediction so then i say that 20M is going to be the most possible outcome. What is anything wrong with that?? You guys act as if your predictions made years or many months ago never change...There a difference with answering what you think is more probable to happen and a prediction. That 18M thing was the former, saying Switch is not going to surpass PS4 is indeed a prediction.

And what are you saying with that NDS thing?? Uggh. When did you proved Switch pipeline has not slowed down?!?! DS peaking later than other great Nintendo consoles and being an outlier is definitively a fact. NES, SNES, N64, GC, Wii, ....all of them peaked before entering the 4th year, only NDS did not. And you kept remind me that i had a mistake in the year of NDS peak as that validates any other point you makeas if you don't get things wrong from time to time....I think is better to never admit that you're wrong like most of you do, than admit inmediately you said something wrong in the very same thread....

And no, Switch is not going to sell more than 120-130M consoles, so no, that prediction is not even close to be more likely than mine...

If something has never change since 2018 is that this Nintendo fan section is still as annoying as ever the moment i made a prediction related to Switch. You could have said you disagree with me, give your opinion and that's it, but instead, you say lies, try to ridiculize me and in conclusion, just annoy me. Thanks for that. I guess you're happy with your thumbs up you get from this...

I still don't understand why you take things so personally here with a gaming machine....god.

I really don't want to make any excuses nor generate any problems with anybody, but what is wrong with what is bolded?. I used those words specifically back then so anyone could not take those numbers as set on stone, just as an opinion at the moment. I thoght they will aim for 18M, and that i wouldn't be surprised if it in the end it was less than that, and that's all.

I said that a "flat year" was more probable than a 20M+ year....and... again, i was right??? Where's the problem here??. In this post i don't state specifically that i made this prediction based in no price cuts and revisions but i'm pretty sure i added that statement various times in other posts. 

I only said 20M+ was going to happen AFTER Lite was announced, because of course, after that news, i updated my prediction. A prediction i don't consider "high" as you say. And what shortcoming of 0'7M are referring to?, was not Switch 1'5M overtracked by VGC and my own estimations (in fact, we still don't know for sure what Nintendo considers more than 48M lifetime, so we can't know for sure how much Switch sold in 2019, it could be from 29'5M to 48'5M, so around 19M for the year) after the update?.

I didn't come back to my 85-90M prediction..., i clearly said that i expect around 100M in the end (around 95M at the end of ...2023 i think i said). 85-90M would be only Switch regular models. Again, what's wrong with that?

I didn't fabricate anything. I said i expected 20-20'5M and that Switch didn't meet my expectations. Now it seems, that expecting 20M or more after Lite in 2019 was "highballing". I must have visited a different VGC forum in 2019 as yours i guess....

As for the Switch software pipeline...., did not software sales in 2019 performed really close in total compared to 2018 despite almost 20M more consoles sold??, or i am being mistaken here? I don't care how many games a console receive, i only care how much they sell. And sorry, but except Animal Crossing, next Zelda and Metroid Prime, we don't know exactly what games are coming the next few years yet..., so we can't assume the quality will be the same as 2017-2019.

You should stop trying to paint me as an enemy of Switch. In fact, the only warning i received here in 10 years, was, ironically, defending Switch against a comparison with Microsoft (it would be even more ironic if it was against a comparison with PS4..., maybe next time). Just because i explain my predictions in more detail than most, trying to explain why i think things are gonna happen, doesn't make my predictions any more anti Switch or something similar. It just makes it more easily for anybody to rememeber me i said something wrong 12 months ago....I do the same with PS4 but nobody ever critize me for that...

It won't pass the 130M PS4 will have sold when all is said and done.

Lmao, seriously? Switch won't sell 100m, but it's going to sell a DEFINITIVE 95m!?!? Sure Jan 

This stood out to me as I see no basis for any of it.

While there have been mainline Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, and Smash Bros games already released, there are definitely quite a few more potential big names for Nintendo that can move hardware. Either confirmed or likely releases down the pipeline: New Mario Kart, Donkey Kong Country, Pikmin 4, 2D Mario Game, Animal Crossing is coming soon (which people seem to LOVE), Metroid Prime 4, BotW sequel, Trials of Mana could potentially be big, Xenoblade remaster, etc.. And I'm sure there be announcements of other big names we've yet to hear about in upcoming Directs and E3. There are still IPs like F-Zero, Star Fox, and various DS franchises that can shift to Switch like Nintendogs, Professor Layton, and so on..

I think it should be clear at this point that Nintendo doesn't need heavy 3rd party support to thrive. It might be lacking somewhat in terms of nabbing new AAA software, but it's improving on that front with games like Doom, and already has a vast lineup of ports/remasters. You've also got indie support, which is arguable the strongest on the home console front, only matched by Steam/PC. 

Why shouldn't you expect price cuts? It's safe to assume that will happen eventually.

Aaand here we go again, all the old excuses from the last few years being wheeled out yet again.

"It's already released all it's big franchises."

"It's already over the hill."

"It will fall off a cliff once PS5/XSX come out."

Exactly how many times do folks have to be wrong about the Switch before they stop lowballing it?