PS4 at $199 sold out in around 3-4 days at all retailers. 

For 2019 you had plenty of sites like eBay selling switch lite for $170 and hybrid switch for $250-275 a couple of weeks. So it’s not only the PS4 that had deals, all consoles Do. 

I liked your post because it gave me a good laugh.

If Nintendo keeps supporting the switch and having at the same time a switch pro (like ps4 pro) it can easily pass the ps4 around 2023-2024 :)

Im not sure the Switch can sell 120m units based on its current tarjectory.

Particularly, is there an audience of 100-120m people who want to mainly play Nintendo's games? Their only consoles to go over 100m relied heavily on appealing outside of their core userbase (wii/DS) or being the only big player in the handheld market (Gameboy).

I'm inclined to think the Switch will end around or below the PS4 with a steep decline in later life.

It won't

Sure, one of the main issues with Nintendo has been that their audience is split between their handheld and home console ecosystems. On top of that Nintendo software teams have had to split resources between 2-4 different platforms.

For example, in 1999/2000 Nintendo was working on late GBC & N64 games while also working on early GBA & GC games. In the 2004-2006 period they would have been working on late GBA & GC games while also working on early DS & Wii games then around 2009-2012 they had to work on late DS & Wii games while also working on early 3DS & Wii U games.

That means each generation only gets a few years of Nintendo's full attention and even in those years support would be split between handheld and home consoles. This progressively has gotten worse as development costs and times increase.

Switch is the first time since the mid 80s that Nintendo gets to give 100% of their support to a single platform which means their audience will all be in one place and sales will not plummet or stagnate like many previous devices have.

I'm not saying it will pass PS4 but 100-120 million is not out of the question at all.

There are just too many factors to tell, really.. Will Japan still be gung-ho about handhelds in 4 years? Will Nintendo release more upgraded/revamped Switch models? What's the library look like. And the big one - when will Nintendo release Switch 2?

Now I anticipate this thing selling at a similar number/trajectory to the DS - though probably a bit less ultimately. People compare it to the Wii but really the device is something of a hybrid of the two, and maybe a bit more similar to the DS b/c it has a touch screen and handheld functionality is really its biggest draw. I think the sales will similarly be somewhere in the middle, perhaps in the 120-130 range. It'll almost certainly have longer legs than the Wii, which completely flatlined after an explosive first 3 years or so.

PS4 will probably end up with a similar number of close to 120. So it's tough to say whether it'll even cross the PS4 in the first place. I think there's a good chance, IF Nintendo churns out a couple new models in the next 4 or so years and keeps supporting it with a strong library. Assuming that happens? I can see Switch inch past the PS4 (at least slightly) by the end of Christmas 2024.

I fully expect 100m but the PS4 is already past that.  The question Im asking is how big is their audience full stop. Fundementally how many people are interested in what the Switch is and its line up of games? Looking at all big titles its the typical pokemon/mario/animal crossing/zelda etc. The Switch is doing amazingly well at tapping into Nintendo's audience but that could just mean its front loaded.

Even with consistent support up until 2017 the 3DS reached a natural saturation point around 80m. What will that be for the Switch?

I'll go 2025 just to be sure.