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When will Switch pass Wii?

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When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 4 4.04%
 
Early 2022 8 8.08%
 
Mid 2022 9 9.09%
 
Holiday 2022 26 26.26%
 
Early 2023 14 14.14%
 
Mid 2023 9 9.09%
 
Holiday 2023 10 10.10%
 
2024 or later 4 4.04%
 
Never 15 15.15%
 
Total:99
curl-6 said:
Barkley said:

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.

Yeah 27m this year is not happening. I'll go with 21m myself, and that's me being uncharacteristically optimistic as we know nothing about this year's lineup beyond Animal Crossing.

Yeah I have similar expectations for this year, 21.5m is what I guessed in the 2020 thread.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

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For me, the bigger question is when, or if, Switch will surpass Wii as a platform. And that will depend largely on what games Switch gets from here on out and how good they are.



I'll go early 2023.



I think this year could be a bit better than 2019 for Switch. But it's much harder to make a bold prediction for 2021 and 2022 when they're several years off, and we don't really know the software lineup.
So if this year is similar to 2019, or the peak year, then by this time in the next three years, Switch may have sold another 50M units or so.

So I'll say early 2023.



The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.



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curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

3 more years.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

3 more years.

3 more years what? Til Switch passes Wii?



curl-6 said:
SpokenTruth said:

3 more years.

3 more years what? Til Switch passes Wii?

Yes.  Took less than 3 to get half way there. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

3 more years what? Til Switch passes Wii?

Yes.  Took less than 3 to get half way there. 

I can see that happening; 20m this year, 18m in 2021, 14m in 2022, for a total of 102m by 2023.

Last edited by curl-6 - 3 days ago

curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

Switch's third party support is so good that Switch would pass the Wii even if Nintendo gave Switch the Wii treatment.

The DS received only a few big Nintendo titles in its later years (as usual during Nintendo's time of running two consoles concurrently, almost all of the big hits were released in the first half of a console's life), but that didn't prevent the DS from having a prolonged peak because it had a lot of third party support.

I suppose people will keep being puzzled because Switch has a trajectory similar to the DS or the better selling PS consoles, but that's because they subscribe to myths like "DS is an anomaly" and "PS consoles always have long legs" instead of doing the most basic of analyses. There are no inexplicable factors at play, it's as simple as "software sells hardware." Switch has quickly built a library that contains hundreds of quality titles and has an outlook of more and more coming to the platform, that's why it hasn't peaked in year 2 like many of its detractors wanted to believe.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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