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When will Switch pass Wii?

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When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 4 4.04%
 
Early 2022 8 8.08%
 
Mid 2022 9 9.09%
 
Holiday 2022 26 26.26%
 
Early 2023 14 14.14%
 
Mid 2023 9 9.09%
 
Holiday 2023 10 10.10%
 
2024 or later 4 4.04%
 
Never 15 15.15%
 
Total:99
curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

My guess is early 2022. It should be just a little under the wii by the end of 2021.

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

Maybe he counted the years wrong haha. Unless he thinks two ~24 million years in a row are incoming.



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"Never" is the 2nd most popular response.

That many folks still think a system that's selling as fast as the PS4 is going to fall short of 101 million?

Last edited by curl-6 - on 12 January 2020

curl-6 said:

"Never" tied for 2nd most popular response.

That many folks still think a system that's selling as fast as the PS4 is going to fall short of 101 million?

You better don't look at the poll in the current PS4 vs. Switch thread.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

curl-6 said:

"Never" tied for 2nd most popular response.

That many folks still think a system that's selling as fast as the PS4 is going to fall short of 101 million?

People who still compare it to Nintendo console such as Wii, 3DS ecc clearly still don't understand that the sales trend of Switch is looking similar to a Playstation, it's been 3 years since launch so how can't them see this.

year one - 14.86 million
year two - 17.42 million
tear three ~ 20 million

and year 4 is looking to be similar to year 3, if not better. Usually Nintendo consoles peaked in the second year, 3DS even in it's first one...



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

curl-6 said:

"Never" tied for 2nd most popular response.

That many folks still think a system that's selling as fast as the PS4 is going to fall short of 101 million?

A system that's selling faster than, launches aligned, than ps4.... even after the ps4 next holiday season. I know... sony legs. I know... those have always been long... sexy legs. But here's the one thing no one mentions. This is the absolute FIRST TIME that Nintendo is sitting on a SINGLE PLATFORM. They have to extend the legs. And I believe they will. The switch is unlike any Nintendo system ever, in that it sits alone as their ONLY PLATFORM.  The switch will challenge the ps4 sales numbers. I absolutely guarantee it. I'm not saying this to you, sir, just saying this to all the naysayers in general. Save this comment, people. The switch WILL HAVE LONG LEGS. 



Just an old man, a family man, and a gamer. My family is more important to me then life itself. 

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SwitchUP said:
curl-6 said:

"Never" tied for 2nd most popular response.

That many folks still think a system that's selling as fast as the PS4 is going to fall short of 101 million?

A system that's selling faster than, launches aligned, than ps4.... even after the ps4 next holiday season. I know... sony legs. I know... those have always been long... sexy legs. But here's the one thing no one mentions. This is the absolute FIRST TIME that Nintendo is sitting on a SINGLE PLATFORM. They have to extend the legs. And I believe they will. The switch is unlike any Nintendo system ever, in that it sits alone as their ONLY PLATFORM.  The switch will challenge the ps4 sales numbers. I absolutely guarantee it. I'm not saying this to you, sir, just saying this to all the naysayers in general. Save this comment, people. The switch WILL HAVE LONG LEGS. 

and just a tad shorter than the PS4



I don't know.
I want to see what their hardware plan is, and I expect we'll hear something about it in late April or the month of May.

I expect sooner if Nintendo pumps out a Switch generation 2 or more hardware revisions. Later or never if they go back and do the old and tired traditional generation cycle with a ramping down and extinction of Switch support in 2 to 3 years to make way for an entirely new platform.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

My guess is early 2022. It should be just a little under the wii by the end of 2021.

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:
curl-6 said:

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.

If the Switch would somehow pull that off, then PS2 and DS would get some serious competition on the top, that's for sure!

But I agree, 27M is just too high. I could see 2021 being around 2019 numbers, maybe beating them by a couple 100k, but not by several millions or anything like that.

For the record, I expect 22-23M this year, so a 10-15% drop the year after could still mean 2021 wins over 2019, if just by a hair. But I'm expecting more like 18-19M for 2021 - which would still add up to over 40M over the course of those 2 years.



Barkley said:
curl-6 said:

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.

Yeah 27m this year is not happening. I'll go with 21m myself, and that's me being uncharacteristically optimistic as we know nothing about this year's lineup beyond Animal Crossing.