It dropped to $199 in Aug 2013.

https://www.digitalspy.com/videogames/gamescom/a508489/gamescom-2013-playstation-3-price-drop-announced-by-sony/

PS4 could probably get lower than PS3 but they really havent shown any desire to do that. Slim & Pro are over 3 years old and have never gone down in price outside of temporary promotions.

Same with the S & X models of XBO, neither has gotten a permanent price cut since they released. Microsoft & Sony have switched their strategy to keeping the MSRP high and driving interest with temporary deals rather than the traditional method of permanent price drops every ~1.5 years.

People really expecting PS4 to decline not much more this year compare to 2019 when it's successor is going to take the lead during the holidays and in the news all year. It is already down 30% from estimates in the first week of 2020 with a temporary price cut in japan, which will crash down next week. Depends if they release a new model or pricecuts but it is very unlikely seeing how they aren't really aggressive with it anymore. People thinking games will have a big impact in year 7 are delusional. Most games have had multiple entries already.

So PS4 : 9,5 millions

I don't see the Switch doing less than last year. It has a major system seller touching an audience the Switch didn't really dabble into yet - Animal crossing. Which this games also pushes further the multiple console per house hold and so the lite that has been release end of 2019 and will help momentum going into 2020. With estimates, Switch is already up significantly first week of the year compared to a week with Smash momentum, while having no big games since mid November. So looking at it, Switch will be up during most of the year easily, price cut is possible and rumors of a new model. It will all depend on the lineup, but Nintendo can start being aggressive in bundles and prices this year.

So for the Switch, i see it peaking this year with numbers, for now, expecting the the bare minimum in promotion : 21.5 millions. It could be higher, will depend on their strategy and if they are willing to reduce the price. But i don't see it doing less than that. Even if there is no as huge game for the holidays as pokemon, the rest of the year being significantly higher will make up for it.

Xbox One : idc... really. 2.5 Millions ? Don't think they have any more models in mind and don't think they can come up with better deals.

PS5 & Xbox series X : I don't expect any numbers before we know the launch date, pricing and lineup. Knowing both i don't expect a huge exclusive title to any of them. The price will have to be higher just because they need to surpass by a lot their mid gen console update which is a blessing and a curse. Yes cycle is longer but now they have to release a console in the 500 range at launch. I do think PS5 will atleast start stronger or else they really need to f**k up their launch. But do keep in mind the general public can switch their mind pretty quickly over insignificant stuff overnight. So any bad move could make the PS5 sell a lot less than anticipated or put Microsoft further in the ground or even save them.

Great post.

Switch 21M: I'm going to go a little higher this year than 2019, the Switch will have very little competition from PS and Xbox for most of the year since the PS4 and Xbox One are obviously on their way out and I through word-of-mouth and the release of the cheaper Switch Lite model, the solid game library the Switch built up over the years, and the potential of a more powerful Switch pro model releasing and a price cut of the OG Switch will give consumers far more general interest in the Switch, as Switch sales have been increasing since launch still year by year. I also believe Animal crossing will be huge in getting a whole new demographic, like casual female gamers, onto the Switch's ecosystem just to play Animal crossing.

PS4:10M- Despite the PS5, and Xbox SX right around the corner, I still expect the PS4 to have a decently solid year in sales even if it's down from it's prime years. Theirs likely going to be very enticing deals and price cuts that'll encourage late-adopters and more casual gamers to pick up the system, and it'll still get new releases as the year goes on to maintain interest in the system. Also the PS4 has proven that it still has a very long lifespan as it still sold 14M despite entering the Dawn of 9th Gen.

Xbox One: 2M-Sales for the past year have proven that interest in the Xbox One is quickly winding down, and I expect this drop in interest to accelerate quicker as we get closer to 9th Gen systems and as the exclusive content for Xbox will also shrink. Xbox will still be pretty dominant going head to head against the PS4 in sales in North America, but outside that region, Xbox will be completely dead in 2020.

PS5:4.3M-I expect the launch of the PS5 to be bigger than we've ever seen in Gaming history, Sony is coming into 9th Gen full of momentum with one of the Greatest selling gaming devices in terms of Hardware and software ever. The attach rate of Hardware-Software the PS4 has never been so high before in a console that sold 106M+ units, which shows how much more dedicated gamers are to PS more than any other game console in history. With that momentum, it's gonna hype up the PS5 even more as many gamers have now trusted Sony for sure. The games will be important too, but no matter how big or small the launch lineup is, it'll sell like hot cakes at launch.

Xbox SX:-3.1M, while I don't expect it to be as huge as the PS5 launch, it'll still have pretty strong launch sales for 2020 as Microsoft cleary became a far better gaming company now in 2020 rather than in 2013 with that horrendous Xbox One launch. Also having an exclusive Halo game at launch while potentially being the more capable system might be enough for Microsoft to win over the American gamers over the PS5. Microsoft just has to find a way to make the Xbox SX appeal to those outside the U.S before i could make them surpass my PS5 prediction sales.

Switch: 26m Assuming nintendo FINALLY gives the damn thing a pricecut and keeps up with the quality software releases.

ps4: 8.5m

x1: 2.5m

ps5 and xsx are too hard to predict without knowing the systems price or launch lineup. I'll assume a $499 price tag and similar launch lineups compared to their predecessors for both.

ps5: 3m

xsx: 2.3m

That Switch number is possible if Nintendo released the pro edition and doing heavy promotion for the base Switch on the holidays. Perhaps BOTW bundled this time around instead of MK8D. 

It doesn't need any revision (though a real switch lite would help). Speaking of bundles, I think it would be a great idea to turn botw, mk8d, splatoon 2 and mario odyssey into $30 nintendo selects and include a nintendo select voucher with each switch. The voucher would feature a download code for one of the selects that the customer would choose.

That's a great idea too, we already saw BOTW instantly sold out with that price point during last year BF, if they could make the promotion longer it will definitely going to effect Switch performance greatly in a positive way.

Well.... I'm not interested old gen sales anymore.

Switch 20m
PS5 5m
XSX 2.5m

I'm not thinking of holidays, though. The idea would be to cut the price to $249 and sometime later do this nintendo select voucher thing permanently.