yo33331 said:
zorg1000 said:
That just isn't true.
PS1 shipments dropped 50% the year PS2 launched, PS2 shipments dropped 13% the year PS3 launched, PSP sales dropped 20% the year PSV launched and PS3 sales dropped 30% the year PS4 launched.
There is no trend that can be created from that.
Sony is not going to do a $100 price cut this year, they have demonstrated over the last 3 years that they want to keep profit margins high and just do temporary holiday promotions, that's why the Slim & Pro models have never had permanent price cuts. They arent all of a sudden going to change that strategy in the year they are trying to convince people to get a PS5. Also PS5 launching at $499 goes against what you are saying anyway because they wont want a cheap PS4 stealing sales away from PS5, they want to avoid another PS3 situation.
It's far more likely that if a price cut happens it will be a $50 cut to $249 and such a price cut this late in the game will only help to soften the decline rather than create YoY growth.
As for better exclusives, yes 2020 looks to be a better year with FF7R, TLOU2 & Ghost of Tsushima compared to Days Gone & Death Stranding but diminishing returns are in affect since those games all belong to genres that already have a ton of support on PS4.
PS4 already has huge selling cinematic action games like Uncharted 4, Last of Us Remastered, God of War, Spider-Man, Days Gone, Death Stranding among others so TLOU2 system selling potential will be limited.
Same goes for FF7R, PS4 already has the biggest JRPG like Final Fantasy XV, Kingdom Hearts 3, Dragon Quest XI, Persona 5, etc so much of the fanbase is already there.
Besides big games dont mean bigger sales when a console is this old, what did GTA V do for PS3/360 sales in 2013?
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For the games okay, I can partially agree, as for GTA V I checked, september 2013 saw doubled sales for both consoles (even more than doubled for PS3). And in sure have helped them to move a little more units during the next year until the remaster, than they would've moved without it.
For the other things, Yes all of the consoles had drops I am not denying it, but after those 1 time big drops they continued to sell for 5-6 years more and do good numbers overrall, and the drops year on year on PS1, PS2 and even PSP werent so big. PS1 in it's last years had dropper around only 2M every next year, which is little. PS2 around the same difference. PSP dropped for 4 years, within 1-2M every year. And now all of a sudden everyone thinks that because PS4 had one medium drop 2019, with 4M that now PS4 will sell 8M in 2020 and 2-3M in 2021 and that's it. This will not be the case. Sony consoles typically sells for another 4 to 5 years (in PS2 case even 7 years) and they are doing preety okay numbers in those years. You can't say that PS4 will just make another 5M or something like that after PS5 and that's it.
As far as the price cut's I don't agree, because until now everytime every manufacturer had done at 1 and most times 2 pricecuts when console is entering it's end of lifecycle. And PS4 will get at least 1 price cut ( I personally think 2 ) until it dies. And if they did 250$ official MSRP cut this year, it will have at least 1 more to 199$ 2 years later or even maybe 149$ depends on what sony decides. But again here most of the consoles when they are dying the last price they end on is either 99$ or 149$. Again PS3 was just one time case. Because it was expensive to sony and they wanted to get rid of it as fast as they can after PS4, just like microsoft wanted to get rid of the first xbox. Because it wasn't so successful it was losing money. PS3 also wasn't very profitable product for sony as were the others(PSP,PS1,PS2 and now PS4.)
In every way PS4 match PS2 gen and now of a sudden everyone says that PS4 will die as bad or even in worst way than the PS3 ? common ...
PS4 is more successful than PS1 and PSP (those consoles for their overall lifetime sales made very good numbers in their dying years) and is almost around on track with PS2 sales for the same period of time (just barely behind it I think) and now of a sudden will have death worse or equevalent to sony worst performing "dying years" console ? (I don't count the vita because for 16M lifetime in still made around 3M sales in its last years which is around 20% of lifetime sales which is not bad.)
I am sure if we had time machine now with this forum and we could go back in 2006 or 2007 no one would predict that PS2 would do those numbers or even close to it and that it would reach 158M. Everyone would guess 120 or 130M at max. Way off from 158M.
My prediction is still on for 2020. 12M at worst. 15M at best (with pricecut of 100$ and superslim, and at least 200 or even maybe 300$ difference between PS5 and PS4). As I said preety much every analyst and article on the internet point to 500 or 600$ price for both of the new consoles. The chance of PS5 launching for 399$ is small. But if that truly happen and they don't touch the price of PS4 (which is 299$ official MSRP now) which I highly doubt to happen, then yes, only then I can see fast death for PS5 and even then it will sell for at least 3 years more and I see it making around 10M more after this year. But this is very very doubtful and bad scenario for Sony. As I said I think they did what they did with PS3 because of the system itself. It was expensive for them, and they weren't making much money on it. Also they weren't in very good financial position as a company and they wanted everyone to get on PS4. They will with PS5 too but it will be way more calm. And even in that extreme scenario PS4 will still pass 120M lifetime reaching maybe 125M. I just can't imagine PS4 to die with 120M lifetime. This would be worse than the PS3 death. Just can't see it happening.
You think that PS4 life will be PS2 sales level until it's 6th year, and 3 dying weak years of PS3 sales after it ? Serioulsly ?
Also I will just leave that here:
These are the sales for PS2 (with FY 2012 probably around 156 and FY2013 ending with close to 158M in total) , I am not saying PS4 will make them, just leaving them here for everyone to see what sales are possible on one successful console. (Just like PS4 is now and is on the same track of sales for the same period)
First see the drops - 20 to 16 okay, one medium drop, and then the next year 14 next 13.7, barely any drop with distance of 3 years. After this there is one serious drop of 6M to 7.9 for the year, but after this again 7.3 and 6.4 - little to none drops. That is what I am talking about. And the numbers as numbers are preety good too. 14 and 13M in it's 7th and 8th year ? awesome. then 7 and 6M in it's 10th and 11th year ? blown mind off .. and on top of that another 3M in its 12th year and close to 2M in it's last 13th year..
Again I am not saying PS4 will do this. Probably won't. It will be too difficult. Just wanted to show what is possible and what HAS BEEN DONE.
In theory there is no impossible things. PS2 did around 50M after it's 6th year. My realistic prediction is PS4 will make at least half of that or a little more. That is equal to around 25-35M from now. Therefore my prediction for total lifetime sales are around 135 to 140M.
PS1 drops were similar. It drops once from 18 to 9M but then it drops just a little bit the next years. 9M then 7, then 6, then 3 then 2. It fall with only 1 to 3M at max with every year. That kind of drops I am talking about that I think would be with PS4 as well. something like 12M now, next year 9-10M then maybe 7 then 5 and last year 2-3M. Not like most of the people say 8M now and next year 2-3-4M and then PS4 is dead. Doesn't history means nothing to most of the people ?
And @zorg1000 I quote you here, but this post is not only to you, it is to everyone who thinks that PS4 will die so easily. I can't be sure 100% either. But I could see it go either way. Most of the people can not. As I said if PS4 doesn't receive price cut until end of lifetime and PS5 is 399$ then yes I can see it making around 125M lifetime and possibly 8-10M this year and then being sold for 2 more years and die. But I just can't imagine how this scenario will happen.
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