| RolStoppable said:
3. Sony and Microsoft especially will play into Nintendo's hands by talking up game streaming and how cool it is to play your games away from your console. Naturally, Nintendo has no need for questionable streaming when their console can go anywhere with proper control inputs and without a required internet connection and the resulting input lag. On top of offering a vastly superior solution, Nintendo's is cheaper to boot.
4. Sony will be brought down to Earth because it dawns on people that the PS4's success received major help from Nintendo and Microsoft. Without those companies messing up so badly, the PS5 won't be able to be the same runaway success that the PS4 was.
5. Microsoft will show that they've learned from the XB1 blunders, but also show that they still don't quite understand the console business. They will pursue a two SKU strategy for the next Xbox right out of the gate, thinking that it is a good offering to be both more expensive (Series X) and cheaper (presumably Series S) than the PS5 at the same time. However, the gamers who anticipate next gen PS and Xbox consoles aren't looking for something gimped, so the cheaper Xbox will be perceived as a gimped version that will be ignored by default, making the decision process effectively the choice of paying for more power (Series X) or not (PS5). While this won't be a problem in the initial rush for the new consoles in 2020, it won't be a sustainable position for Microsoft in the mid to long term of a generational cycle, so they'll either cut the price or eat dust.
7. Switch is going to be doomed because its current success relies on ports of AAA third party games, something that will fade quickly with the imminent release of the PS5 and XSX. I predict that a lot of people will make bad predictions such as this one.
8. The PS4 and XB1 will see a more substantial decline in sales in 2020 than they already saw in 2019. The staggered regional launches of older generations, including developing countries, are a thing of the past, so the legs of the PS4 and especially the XB1 won't be long. An additional factor is how disposable PS and Xbox consoles are, so the market will see a flood of used consoles because of people selling off their PS4s and XB1s to put the money towards next gen consoles. More used consoles in the marketplace means that retailers will try to sell those rather than order new boxes from Sony and Microsoft.
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@3 Despite this being true, we will hear no end of Stadia, Mobile, and Xbox fanboys talking up the "I can stream my big boy games anywhere!" argument. This will cause me to cringe at them all year.
@4 Sony will still do something like 75 million lifetime PS5. Analysts will look at this and XB1 Sex sales (of 55 Million lifetime) out of context and declare that traditional game consoles are dying.
@5 Kid: I want a next gen console Mommy!
Mom: Okay let's get the cheaper Xbox model!
Kid: No that's gimped! Get me the Series X!
Mom: Hell no, that's way too much! How about a PS5?
Kid: Sure that's fine too!
@7 I'm going to be laughing at predictions like that all year long. Switch is getting RDR2, and already has a Witcher 3 port. Sorry, Nintendoomers, but Switch ain't going to be irrelevant for years!
@8 Hopefully a healthy used market will lead to more casuals transferring into real gaming. Gen Z needs to mature past Fortnite, and Mobile garbage already!
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