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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nintendo's success with the Switch both a blessing and a curse?

Nu-13 on 21 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Yep; closer to PS3/360/Wii U in terms of raw horsepower, closer to PS4/Xbone in graphical features and RAM. Overall an interesting middle ground.

It makes me curious for Switch 2, in theory a 2023 release should put it somewhere in between PS4 & PS5 so NSW2 should get a bunch of PS4/XBO ports like how NSW gets a ton of PS3/360 ports.

Then on the other hand it could potentially get more PS5/XSX downports than NSW got from PS4/XBO since 3rd parties shouldnt be so caught off guard by its success and can factor it in from the start.

Huh, in theory? The switch released 3 years after the ps4 and it's hardware sits almost in the middle of ps3 and ps4. Chances are that a switch successor coming in holidays 2022 will see a bigger power jump over the switch than the ps5 does over ps4. That means the power gap will be smaller even with the switch 2 coming only 2 years after ps5 and xsx. So of course it will have no problem getting multiplats with those systems (power wise).

I expect multis to target 4k on ps5/xsx and 1440-1600p with some downgrades on switch 2 docked mode. Portable mode resolution will depend on the power gap between modes. A 4x gap would result in 720-900p, while a 2.5x gap (similar to now) would give us 900-1080p.

goopy20 said:
zorg1000 said:

It makes me curious for Switch 2, in theory a 2023 release should put it somewhere in between PS4 & PS5 so NSW2 should get a bunch of PS4/XBO ports like how NSW gets a ton of PS3/360 ports.

Then on the other hand it could potentially get more PS5/XSX downports than NSW got from PS4/XBO since 3rd parties shouldnt be so caught off guard by its success and can factor it in from the start.

I agree, 2023 sounds pretty accurate but that is already halfway through the ps5 life cycle and Sony will likely have a 60m lead by then.

Actual release dates aside, I recommend you to check sales data because the ps5 would have to be selling about as fast as the wii to pull those numbers.



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goopy20 on 21 December 2019
PAOerfulone said:
goopy20 said:

I agree, 2023 sounds pretty accurate but that is already halfway through the ps5 life cycle and Sony will likely have a 60m lead by then.

And? That ultimately wasn’t a problem for the Switch as it released halfway through the PS4 life cycle and during it’s peak year, but look how that turned out.

Secondly: In 2023, the PS5 will have only been out for barely 3 years and you expect it to already be at 60m? 20m a year, right out of the gate? I think you need to tamper your expectations just a little bit. The PS4 was barely passed 50m by that point. 

Well the ps4 was at almost 54m at the end of 2017.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#645d238a7b41

If the Switch keeps selling as is, then obviously there is no problem at all for Nintendo. But keep in mind that while the Switch did sell great, it's still only slightly above the Xone sales and who knows how sales will hold up when the next gen starts. 



zorg1000 on 21 December 2019
goopy20 said:
PAOerfulone said:

And? That ultimately wasn’t a problem for the Switch as it released halfway through the PS4 life cycle and during it’s peak year, but look how that turned out.

Secondly: In 2023, the PS5 will have only been out for barely 3 years and you expect it to already be at 60m? 20m a year, right out of the gate? I think you need to tamper your expectations just a little bit. The PS4 was barely passed 50m by that point. 

Well the ps4 was at almost 54m at the end of 2017.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#645d238a7b41

If the Switch keeps selling as is, then obviously there is no problem at all for Nintendo. But keep in mind that while the Switch did sell great, it's still only slightly above the Xone sales and who knows how sales will hold up when the next gen starts. 

Why do we need to keep that in mind?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Pemalite on 21 December 2019
Mr Puggsly said:

I am not sure Switch could have existed in 2013 as it does. If so it would have been less powerful or more expensive. At that point Wii U was also just a year old, which inspired Switch.

It would have been impossible. 28nm+Tegra 4 was what was "leading edge" on the market at the time.

Unless of course Nintendo went the custom route and built a mobile chip geared towards gaming rather than take an off-the-shelf SoC.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

zorg1000 on 21 December 2019
Pemalite said:
Mr Puggsly said:

I am not sure Switch could have existed in 2013 as it does. If so it would have been less powerful or more expensive. At that point Wii U was also just a year old, which inspired Switch.

It would have been impossible. 28nm+Tegra 4 was what was "leading edge" on the market at the time.

Unless of course Nintendo went the custom route and built a mobile chip geared towards gaming rather than take an off-the-shelf SoC.

What would a 2013 Switch be in terms of power, something between Vita & 360?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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nuckles87 on 21 December 2019

The Nvidia Shield Portable was essentially the Nintendo Switch of 2013, and as someone who owned it, I think “between Vita and 360” would be a pretty good way to describe it, I think. The system was capable of playing ports of lower-end 360 games like Portal and Half-Life 2,



Nu-13 on 21 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
Pemalite said:

It would have been impossible. 28nm+Tegra 4 was what was "leading edge" on the market at the time.

Unless of course Nintendo went the custom route and built a mobile chip geared towards gaming rather than take an off-the-shelf SoC.

What would a 2013 Switch be in terms of power, something between Vita & 360?

I guess it would be just under an x360.



curl-6 on 21 December 2019

2022 is too early for Switch 2 IMO. No need to cut off a system that it selling on par with PS4 after just 5 years.

Give it 6 and come out with a successor in 2023, using the extra year to get better specs for $300.



Nu-13 on 21 December 2019
curl-6 said:

2022 is too early for Switch 2 IMO. No need to cut off a system that it selling on par with PS4 after just 5 years.

Give it 6 and come out with a successor in 2023, using the extra year to get better specs for $300.

Holidays 2022 is not early, it's basically 6 years after the switch. It's also only 2 years after the ps5 and xsx, making it a good timing for a switch 2. Just think about it this way: ps4 was a huge success out of the gate and the switch came 3 years after it. At that point there was just no stopping it. If rumours about their specs and price are true, chances are that the ps5 and xsx will have way slower starts compared to the ps4. A switch successor coming 2 years after those could easily steal their momentum and dominate the 10th gen.

A holiday 2023 release would only make some sense if switch existed in a vacuum but that's not the case. The circunstances make 2022 just too good to pass. Regarding power, I'm pretty sure the gap between a 2022 $299 switch successor and the ps5/xsx will already be smaller than the gap between switch and ps4/xb1. Waiting another year would make little difference.



curl-6 on 21 December 2019
Nu-13 said:
curl-6 said:

2022 is too early for Switch 2 IMO. No need to cut off a system that it selling on par with PS4 after just 5 years.

Give it 6 and come out with a successor in 2023, using the extra year to get better specs for $300.

Holidays 2022 is not early, it's basically 6 years after the switch. It's also only 2 years after the ps5 and xsx, making it a good strategic time for a switch 2. Just think about it: ps4 was a huge success out of the gate and the switch came 3 years after it. At that point there was just no stopping it. If rumours about their specs and price are true, chances are that the ps5 and xsx will have way slower starts compared to the ps4. A switch successor coming 2 years after those could easily steal their momentum and dominate the 10th gen.

A holiday 2023 release would only make some sense if switch existed in a vacuum but that's not the case. The circunstances make 2022 just too good to pass. Regarding power, I'm pretty sure the gap between a 2022 $299 switch successor and the ps5/xsx will already be smaller than the gap between switch and ps4/xb1. Waiting another year would make little difference.

Switch doesn't directly compete with Playstation/Xbox, the last two and half years clearly show that. Nintendo doesn't have to worry about PS5/XSX anymore than bicycle sellers need to worry about sports car sellers. There's no need to try to "steal their momentum", Switch 2 should launch when Switch 1 has reached its full potential and the end of its natural life, and 2022 is too early to cut short one of the fastest selling systems in history.