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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nintendo's success with the Switch both a blessing and a curse?

DarthMetalliCube on 15 December 2019

This might be a bold statement, but I can honestly see the Switch getting at least close to DS levels (like 120-140 million), or at least follow a similar trajectory to that machine. The Switch is a monster in Japan much like the DS was there, and again, its handheld functionality and multiple models mean there's added value for many in addition to having the potential for many households or even many people to purchase multiple consoles. Nintendo and 2nd parties just has to keep the games coming, and really the console already has an insanely big and diverse lineup for only being on the market for 2.7 years.

I really don't see the next gen of Sony and MS consoles effecting what Nintendo's doing too much, again, aside from less multiplat games from 3rd parties, but those haven't been a huge factor for Switch in the first place.



 

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GProgrammer on 15 December 2019

DarthMetalliCube said:
This might be a bold statement, but I can honestly see the Switch getting at least close to DS levels (like 120-140 million), or at least follow a similar trajectory to that machine. The Switch is a monster in Japan much like the DS was there

 The switch a monster in Japan, like the DS!!!

i think you need to go and see what the DS used to sell there, not even close. As a handheld the switch has been performing badly.



VAMatt on 15 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
VAMatt said:

Why would we hope it's not a steep decline? I like my Switch. But, I would like to see Nintendo move the concept forward. If sales decline quickly, the next generation will come sooner. That's better for gamers.

You are in the minority. Most gamers would rather spend their money on more games than more hardware.

Well, it's not like we're talking about a three year generation here.  If sales decline quickly at that point, we'll still be looking at probably 6 years between Switch and Switch 2.  I think that's about the right length for a generation.  



Eagle367 on 15 December 2019

I don't get this purist standpoint that people here have. Does the switch run on tv? Yes. Does it play games that are considered home console experiences? yes. Does it play games that are considered handheld experiences? Yes. So for all intents and purposes, the switch 8s a hole console and a portable console. The games make the system. Nintendo is still in the home console maker but isn't restricted by things that Sony and Microsoft are restricted by. It's as simple as that no?



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

Lonely_Dolphin on 15 December 2019
VAMatt said:
RolStoppable said:

You are in the minority. Most gamers would rather spend their money on more games than more hardware.

Well, it's not like we're talking about a three year generation here.  If sales decline quickly at that point, we'll still be looking at probably 6 years between Switch and Switch 2.  I think that's about the right length for a generation.  

While a fair opinion, your reason for 6 years being the right length seems arbitrary. I think the right length is whenever they've exhausted their catalogue of possible games, and they definitely haven't yet. Still many series without a new game like 2D Mario, Pikmin, Donkey Kong Country, Mario Kart, Kid Icarus, Paper Mario, etc. Plenty of potential sequels for Fire Emblem, 3D Mario, Pokemon, Kirby, and so ons. More new IPs is always possible as well. It's certainly possible all these games will come out by 2022, if so by all means release a new system.



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Alistair on 17 December 2019

It's not about being a purist, it is clearly not a home console. The power level is mobile. There's a reason the mobile only Switch lite exists. Being able to be plugged into a TV doesn't make it a home console. The Vita wasn't a home console either just because you could plug it in.



curl-6 on 17 December 2019
Alistair said:

It's not about being a purist, it is clearly not a home console. The power level is mobile. There's a reason the mobile only Switch lite exists. Being able to be plugged into a TV doesn't make it a home console. The Vita wasn't a home console either just because you could plug it in.

Ultimately, it really doesn't matter.

If I use it as a home console, then for all intents and purposes, it's a home console for me. If someone else uses it as a portable, then for them that's what it is. Semantic definitions have little real world relevance.

This whole argument over what the Switch is has been done to death and is pointless.



Alistair on 17 December 2019
Mnementh said:
thismeintiel said:
Switch will start to decline once the new systems are out. However, it not getting as many AAA 3rd party games isn't the only factor to why. It'll mainly be because it is getting older and because Nintendo has already released their big guns. A price cut might slow the decline quite a bit, but it won't stop it.

Which experience will Switch owners miss out on with the release of PS5 and XBoxSeX, that the Switch currently has or that the PS4 and XB1 haven't? As cool as ghost of Tsushima looks, similar experiences exists with Sekiro. Hellblade II? Well, Hellblade is even on Switch. Godfall? I have no idea what that does, but what little we saw it is an action game alike DMC or Bayonetta. VR? Currently on PS4. What else? New version of Battlefield and Call of Duty? Will they extend the formula?

So far it seems, the early lineup of the new consoles offer either only experiences the Switch has, or that current consoles have and Switch misses - and that doesn't keep Switch from selling so far. If the generation goes on, experience say the game makers start to utilize the abilities of the new gen more extensively. At that point it might offer new experiences. But that is 2022 or later. At which point a successor to the Switch will be close.

Switch will peak in 2020 or 2021, despite the new offerings from Sony and MS.

Also, it is interesting how many posters have the feeling the new gen might hamper Switch sales, but without any data or reasoning backing them up. I myself thought it might be a possibility - over a year ago. Since then sales data and game offerings have shown that this doubt was unneeded. The current wave of posts express more the hope of their writers, than a thorough analysis.

EDIT: If posters are so confident that PS5 and XBoxSeX will offer an experience that will make Switch look unattractive, it would be logical to make a bet that either PS5 or XboxSeX will outsell Switch in 2021. I am willing to bet against it, as I was willing many years back to bet against that PS3 will eventually outsell Wii lifetime. For this bet to decide we will have at least only to wait two years.

Stop comparing mobile sales with home console sales. The Switch is selling well but must be compared against the DS and 3DS and then it doesn't look so hot. The PS5 doesn't need to outsell mobile hardware, it is high end home console hardware.



curl-6 on 17 December 2019
Alistair said:

 The Switch is selling well but must be compared against the DS and 3DS and then it doesn't look so hot.

Switch is selling much better than 3DS, despite the 3DS being vastly cheaper by this point in its life: https://www.vgchartz.com/article/441806/switch-vs-3dsvgchartz-gap-chartsnovember-2019/



Lonely_Dolphin on 17 December 2019
Alistair said:

Stop comparing mobile sales with home console sales.

Make me.

curl-6 said:
Alistair said:

 The Switch is selling well but must be compared against the DS and 3DS and then it doesn't look so hot.

Switch is selling much better than 3DS, despite the 3DS being vastly cheaper by this point in its life: https://www.vgchartz.com/article/441806/switch-vs-3dsvgchartz-gap-chartsnovember-2019/

That's pretty hot, by the end of 2019 Switch have sold 2/3's of 3DS total after 8 years in just 2 years 9 months. It's even possible it'll match 3DS ltd next holiday, dayum!