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Famitsu Sales: W48, 2019 (Nov 25 - Dec 01)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W48, 2019 (Nov 25 - Dec 01)

Supermario28 said:

Switch 2019 (3,543,024) overtakes full 2018 sales (3,482,388) by 60,636 units!

Current lead YOY: +1,111,929

4 weeks to hold this lead. 

In the next 4 weeks switch would need to sell an average of 262,823/week in order to keep the lead as it is now. 

I don't think the lead will grow by the end of December. It's already going to be hard to keep this lead knowing SSBU released last year.

My prediction is that the Switch is going to trounce that number and sell another 1.25m. I think Pokemon's impact plus the general popularity increase of the Switch in Japan is going to offset the impact Smash had.



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RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

8.5k PS4's lol.

Can home consoles recover in Japan?

Snes + Genesis = 21m                                       (27% of sales in Japan)
N64 + PS1 + Saturn = 33m                                (23% of sales in Japan)
Gamecube + PS2 + Dreamcast + Xbox = 30m   (14% of sales in Japan)
PS3 + Wii + 360 = 24.9m                                  (9% of sales in Japan)
PS4 + WiiU + XBO = 12m                                  (7.5% of sales in Japan)

For comparison handhelds:

Gameboy = 32.5m      (27% of sales in Japan)
GBA = 17m                (21% of sales in Japan)
DS+PSP = 53m          (22% of sales in Japan)
3DS + Vita = 30.5m   (33.5% of sales in Japan)

So in recent times, 33% of handhelds sold in Japan, only 7.5% Home Consoles.

Switch is already at 9.7m, so last generation's 12m (and eventual 13m) will be comfortably beaten. After all, the PS5 is going to sell several millions too.

Switch can be used as a handheld, it's success is meaningless in the decline of dedicated home consoles in Japan.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

96 % market share this week. Wow. And it's almost 1 year until PS5 arrives... Nintendo is in a very comfortable position in Japan. Market share won't stay that high during 2020, but I think we should be around 90 % YTD with some single strong weeks for PS4.



kopstudent89 said:
Supermario28 said:

With the Switch Light's lower price point it should be able to do it. Heck I honestly think it has a chance to end the year at 4.8m 

Mbolibombo said:
Supermario28 said:

Switch has had a pretty huge momentum since the September. All weeks but one has been up, the one were it wasnt it was basically flat and it was also the Pokemon+Smash bundle week. I expect the momentum to continue.

This week the OG switch alone was bigger than last year. Lite is only adding, not taking sales from the OG. I dont find it very optimistic to think the last 3 weeks of the year will be up. Heck even 2017 week 51 was bigger than week 51 last year, and this only with XC2 as a holiday title.

zorg1000 said:
Supermario28 said:

It wont be that tough, this week was 187k and it should consistently rise for the next 3 weeks before have a moderate drop the week after that. Here are the last 4 weeks of the year in 2017/2018.

2017

165k

220k

270k

135k

Total-790k (just under 200k/week)

2018

270k

270k

270k

175k

Total-1015k (just over 250k/week)

Even if not as high as 2018, it should be comfortably higher than 2017. Also a big December game isnt necessary for a huge holiday, look at 3DS sales in 2012 where the big holiday title released in early Nov.

210k

320k

410k

250k

2018 numbers have been adjusted to 1049k (262k/week).

But fair points. It's true Switch Lite is adding and not taking and 2012 3DS holiday sales were huge. I may be over pessimistic.

Still, I just cannot see it up YOY in december, maybe flat is reachable IMO.

I sincerly hope you're all right though :)



Pokemon and Switch are kicking ass.

With digital estimates S/S should be around 2.8-2.9 million



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Barkley said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch is already at 9.7m, so last generation's 12m (and eventual 13m) will be comfortably beaten. After all, the PS5 is going to sell several millions too.

Switch can be used as a handheld, it's success is meaningless in the decline of dedicated home consoles in Japan.

That's a strange way to look at it. By that logic, Nintendo would now be less popular in Japanese homes than they were with the Wii U.

From a publisher perspective, Switch is really awesome. No more headache about the decision to make a game for a home platform or a portable console because both bases get covered with a single effort.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

Switch can be used as a handheld, it's success is meaningless in the decline of dedicated home consoles in Japan.

That's a strange way to look at it. By that logic, Nintendo would now be less popular in Japanese homes than they were with the Wii U.

From a publisher perspective, Switch is really awesome. No more headache about the decision to make a game for a home platform or a portable console because both bases get covered with a single effort.

The point is that portable gaming remains popular in Japan while the market share for non-portable gaming has fallen considerably. Switch figures can't be used to show that non-portable gaming is recovering because it can be used as a portable. The only way to use the numbers would be to know what the Switch would have hypothetically sold if it had no handheld/portable capabilities.

"By that logic, Nintendo would now be less popular in Japanese homes than they were with the Wii U." - I'm sure that in the alternate-reality where the Switch can only be used hooked up to a TV it would still be doing a lot better than the WiiU in Japan. But this isn't the type of comparison that I was trying to draw attention to lol.

"From a publisher perspective, Switch is really awesome. No more headache about the decision to make a game for a home platform or a portable console because both bases get covered with a single effort." - I agree.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Barkley said:

The point is that portable gaming remains popular in Japan while the market share for non-portable gaming has fallen considerably. Switch figures can't be used to show that non-portable gaming is recovering because it can be used as a portable. The only way to use the numbers would be to know what the Switch would have hypothetically sold if it had no handheld/portable capabilities.

"By that logic, Nintendo would now be less popular in Japanese homes than they were with the Wii U." - I'm sure that in the alternate-reality where the Switch can only be used hooked up to a TV it would still be doing a lot better than the WiiU in Japan. But this isn't the type of comparison that I was trying to draw attention to lol.

"From a publisher perspective, Switch is really awesome. No more headache about the decision to make a game for a home platform or a portable console because both bases get covered with a single effort." - I agree.

If you wanted to rule out Switch from the beginning, then what was the point of your question to begin with? You know that you are left with only the PS5 and Scarlett then, and you are basically asking if they can sell more than 12m combined. That's akin to going into the NFL thread right now and asking if the Miami Dolphins can make the playoffs.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Damn. Another hold at 180k. Very impressive. I don't think it'll match Dec 2018 numbers cuz of Smash last year, but I think it will hold a 1 million YoY lead, bringing in a bit over 4.5 million for the year (which is exactly what I predicted at the start of the year, go me!). I guess it's possible lots of 3DS (handheld focused) owners who don't have a Switch yet get the Lite for Christmas and sales match last year, but that just seems a bit tough with no big release this month.

All I know is the first 10 months of next year (before new consoles eat up some sales) are gonna be insane for Switch's piece of the hardware pie in Japan with PS4 dying hard and Switch only getting stronger.



RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

The point is that portable gaming remains popular in Japan while the market share for non-portable gaming has fallen considerably. Switch figures can't be used to show that non-portable gaming is recovering because it can be used as a portable. The only way to use the numbers would be to know what the Switch would have hypothetically sold if it had no handheld/portable capabilities.

"By that logic, Nintendo would now be less popular in Japanese homes than they were with the Wii U." - I'm sure that in the alternate-reality where the Switch can only be used hooked up to a TV it would still be doing a lot better than the WiiU in Japan. But this isn't the type of comparison that I was trying to draw attention to lol.

"From a publisher perspective, Switch is really awesome. No more headache about the decision to make a game for a home platform or a portable console because both bases get covered with a single effort." - I agree.

If you wanted to rule out Switch from the beginning, then what was the point of your question to begin with? You know that you are left with only the PS5 and Scarlett then, and you are basically asking if they can sell more than 12m combined. That's akin to going into the NFL thread right now and asking if the Miami Dolphins can make the playoffs.

Eh, I'm not left with just PS5/Scarlett cause the question wasn't time limited lol, it could be the generation after that or the one after that. Though even if I was just asking for PS5+Scarlett, it's more about the marketshare I'm interested in (% sold in Japan) than the 12m figure.

With each generation the % of total sales coming from Japan has declined for dedicate home consoles (27%, 23%, 14%, 9%, 7.5%) Will this number recover, that's the question, or are consoles that need hooking up to a TV to use dead for good.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m