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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W48, 2019 (Nov 25 - Dec 01)

Supermario28 on 04 December 2019
Mbolibombo said:
Supermario28 said:

Switch 2019 (3,543,024) overtakes full 2018 sales (3,482,388) by 60,636 units!

Current lead YOY: +1,111,929

4 weeks to hold this lead. 

In the next 4 weeks switch would need to sell an average of 262,823/week in order to keep the lead as it is now. 

I don't think the lead will grow by the end of December. It's already going to be hard to keep this lead knowing SSBU released last year.

We'll see.

As big as Smash is, I'm sure the addition of the Lite will offset smash increase, then there's also a mainline pokemon and RFA that's going to push hardware for the rest of the year. I'd be very surprised if Switch is not up YoY compared to last year. I'd give launchweek (next week) to last year, but expecting every other week to be up the rest of the year.

I think it's very optimistic to think both week 50 and 51 will be above 300k and week 52 around 200K.

But i'm excited to find out! It would be huge if you are right.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 04 December 2019

Xbox not half bad for what it can pull in Japan. PS4 is really dying by now. It needs a pricecut yesterday.

Ring Fit... what could you have reached if you had stock...



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kopstudent89 on 04 December 2019
Supermario28 said:
OTBWY said:

Incredible hold. Definitely up 1 million YoY

More detailed pacman

It would need 234,841 units per week in order to be up 1 milion YOY.

It's gonna be tough!

With the Switch Light's lower price point it should be able to do it. Heck I honestly think it has a chance to end the year at 4.8m 



Mbolibombo on 04 December 2019
Supermario28 said:
Mbolibombo said:

We'll see.

As big as Smash is, I'm sure the addition of the Lite will offset smash increase, then there's also a mainline pokemon and RFA that's going to push hardware for the rest of the year. I'd be very surprised if Switch is not up YoY compared to last year. I'd give launchweek (next week) to last year, but expecting every other week to be up the rest of the year.

I think it's very optimistic to think both week 50 and 51 will be above 300k and week 52 around 200K.

But i'm excited to find out! It would be huge if you are right.

Switch has had a pretty huge momentum since the September. All weeks but one has been up, the one were it wasnt it was basically flat and it was also the Pokemon+Smash bundle week. I expect the momentum to continue.

This week the OG switch alone was bigger than last year. Lite is only adding, not taking sales from the OG. I dont find it very optimistic to think the last 3 weeks of the year will be up. Heck even 2017 week 51 was bigger than week 51 last year, and this only with XC2 as a holiday title.



zorg1000 on 04 December 2019
Supermario28 said:
OTBWY said:

Incredible hold. Definitely up 1 million YoY

More detailed pacman

It would need 234,841 units per week in order to be up 1 milion YOY.

It's gonna be tough!

It wont be that tough, this week was 187k and it should consistently rise for the next 3 weeks before have a moderate drop the week after that. Here are the last 4 weeks of the year in 2017/2018.

2017

165k

220k

270k

135k

Total-790k (just under 200k/week)

2018

270k

270k

270k

175k

Total-1015k (just over 250k/week)

Even if not as high as 2018, it should be comfortably higher than 2017. Also a big December game isnt necessary for a huge holiday, look at 3DS sales in 2012 where the big holiday title released in early Nov.

210k

320k

410k

250k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Barkley on 04 December 2019

8.5k PS4's lol.

Can home consoles recover in Japan?

Snes + Genesis = 21m                                       (27% of sales in Japan)
N64 + PS1 + Saturn = 33m                                (23% of sales in Japan)
Gamecube + PS2 + Dreamcast + Xbox = 30m   (14% of sales in Japan)
PS3 + Wii + 360 = 24.9m                                  (9% of sales in Japan)
PS4 + WiiU + XBO = 12m                                  (7.5% of sales in Japan)

For comparison handhelds:

Gameboy = 32.5m      (27% of sales in Japan)
GBA = 17m                (21% of sales in Japan)
DS+PSP = 53m          (22% of sales in Japan)
3DS + Vita = 30.5m   (33.5% of sales in Japan)

So in recent times, 33% of handhelds sold in Japan, only 7.5% Home Consoles.



RaptorChrist on 04 December 2019
Supermario28 said:

Switch 2019 (3,543,024) overtakes full 2018 sales (3,482,388) by 60,636 units!

Current lead YOY: +1,111,929

4 weeks to hold this lead. 

In the next 4 weeks switch would need to sell an average of 262,823/week in order to keep the lead as it is now. 

I don't think the lead will grow by the end of December. It's already going to be hard to keep this lead knowing SSBU released last year.

My prediction is that the Switch is going to trounce that number and sell another 1.25m. I think Pokemon's impact plus the general popularity increase of the Switch in Japan is going to offset the impact Smash had.



Barkley on 04 December 2019
RolStoppable said:
Barkley said:

8.5k PS4's lol.

Can home consoles recover in Japan?

Snes + Genesis = 21m                                       (27% of sales in Japan)
N64 + PS1 + Saturn = 33m                                (23% of sales in Japan)
Gamecube + PS2 + Dreamcast + Xbox = 30m   (14% of sales in Japan)
PS3 + Wii + 360 = 24.9m                                  (9% of sales in Japan)
PS4 + WiiU + XBO = 12m                                  (7.5% of sales in Japan)

For comparison handhelds:

Gameboy = 32.5m      (27% of sales in Japan)
GBA = 17m                (21% of sales in Japan)
DS+PSP = 53m          (22% of sales in Japan)
3DS + Vita = 30.5m   (33.5% of sales in Japan)

So in recent times, 33% of handhelds sold in Japan, only 7.5% Home Consoles.

Switch is already at 9.7m, so last generation's 12m (and eventual 13m) will be comfortably beaten. After all, the PS5 is going to sell several millions too.

Switch can be used as a handheld, it's success is meaningless in the decline of dedicated home consoles in Japan.



siebensus4 on 04 December 2019

96 % market share this week. Wow. And it's almost 1 year until PS5 arrives... Nintendo is in a very comfortable position in Japan. Market share won't stay that high during 2020, but I think we should be around 90 % YTD with some single strong weeks for PS4.



Supermario28 on 04 December 2019
kopstudent89 said:
Supermario28 said:

With the Switch Light's lower price point it should be able to do it. Heck I honestly think it has a chance to end the year at 4.8m 

Mbolibombo said:
Supermario28 said:

Switch has had a pretty huge momentum since the September. All weeks but one has been up, the one were it wasnt it was basically flat and it was also the Pokemon+Smash bundle week. I expect the momentum to continue.

This week the OG switch alone was bigger than last year. Lite is only adding, not taking sales from the OG. I dont find it very optimistic to think the last 3 weeks of the year will be up. Heck even 2017 week 51 was bigger than week 51 last year, and this only with XC2 as a holiday title.

zorg1000 said:
Supermario28 said:

It wont be that tough, this week was 187k and it should consistently rise for the next 3 weeks before have a moderate drop the week after that. Here are the last 4 weeks of the year in 2017/2018.

2017

165k

220k

270k

135k

Total-790k (just under 200k/week)

2018

270k

270k

270k

175k

Total-1015k (just over 250k/week)

Even if not as high as 2018, it should be comfortably higher than 2017. Also a big December game isnt necessary for a huge holiday, look at 3DS sales in 2012 where the big holiday title released in early Nov.

210k

320k

410k

250k

2018 numbers have been adjusted to 1049k (262k/week).

But fair points. It's true Switch Lite is adding and not taking and 2012 3DS holiday sales were huge. I may be over pessimistic.

Still, I just cannot see it up YOY in december, maybe flat is reachable IMO.

I sincerly hope you're all right though :)