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usa: "PS4 has already sold more units this week > the last several months combined"

Forums - Sales Discussion - usa: "PS4 has already sold more units this week > the last several months combined"

colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

You sure about that?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-from-2012-to-2018-in-several-countries.143820/

UK-peak 2014

France-peak 2014

Germany-peak 2017

Spain-peak 2015

Italy-peak 2016

Benelux (Belguim, Netherlands, Luxemburg)-peak 2015

Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland)-peak 2015

Germany is the only notable Western European country that didnt peak in 2014-2016 yet Europe as a whole had it's best years in 2017 & 2018. How could that be?

Western Europe vs total Europe (Eastern Europe)

2014-5.53m vs 6.05m (0.52m)

2015-6.03m vs 6.86m (0.83m)

2016-5.72m vs 6.80m (1.08m)

2017-5.76m vs 7.89m (2.13m)

2018-5.31m vs 7.78m (2.47m)

Look at that, Western Europe peaked in 2015 while Eastern Europe peaked in 2018.

Those are shipment numbers from that data you're using and are not the same as sold to consumers. The numbers i gave you for Spain were official for those years and were sold to consumers. The numbers we were always disscussing, at least me, were sold to consumers.

According to VGC data, France's peak was in 2017 and UK's and Germany's peak were in 2018. I suppose VGC must be based in official tracking, so ..., yes, even Western Europe peaked in 2017-2018.

It literally says sell through in the link I posted, it's not shipments.



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Those are shipment numbers from that data you're using and are not the same as sold to consumers. The numbers i gave you for Spain were official for those years and were sold to consumers. The numbers we were always disscussing, at least me, were sold to consumers.

According to VGC data, France's peak was in 2017 and UK's and Germany's peak were in 2018. I suppose VGC must be based in official tracking, so ..., yes, even Western Europe peaked in 2017-2018.

It literally says sell through in the link I posted, it's not shipments.

They are. Look at the total numbers at the end for PS4 and Switch. It shows around 94M for PS4 and 32M for Switch at the end of 2018. Those were shipment numbers. 

The link says it takes numbers  "From the CESA report, sell-through data from 2012 to 2018 in many countries" but this doesn't mean all the numbers combined are sell-through. If the total amount of sales showed there put PS4 at 94M and Switch at 32M at the end of 2018 they're definitively shipment numbers.

I can totally guarantee you that PS4 did not "sell to consumers" 750k in 2014 and 900k in 2015 in Spain like it's showing that graph. Those has to be shipment numbers in case of being true.

And if it's mixing shipment numbers with sell-through numbers in some markets, then maybe that data is not that accurate after all.

Last edited by colafitte - on 02 December 2019

colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

It literally says sell through in the link I posted, it's not shipments.

They are. Look at the total numbers at the end for PS4 and Switch. It shows around 94M for PS4 and 32M for Switch at the end of 2018. Those were shipment numbers. 

The link says it takes numbers  "From the CESA report, sell-through data from 2012 to 2018 in many countries" but this doesn't mean all the numbers combined are sell-through. If the total amount of sales showed there put PS4 at 94M and Switch at 32M at the end of 2018 they're definitively shipment numbers.

I can totally guarantee you that PS4 did not "sel to consumersl" 900k in 2014 in Spain like it's showing that graph. Those has to be shipment numbers in case of being true.

Its sell through, USA is based on NPD, Japan based on Media Create/Famitsu and Europe based on Gfk while RotW are estimates which explains the slight discrepancies.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

They are. Look at the total numbers at the end for PS4 and Switch. It shows around 94M for PS4 and 32M for Switch at the end of 2018. Those were shipment numbers. 

The link says it takes numbers  "From the CESA report, sell-through data from 2012 to 2018 in many countries" but this doesn't mean all the numbers combined are sell-through. If the total amount of sales showed there put PS4 at 94M and Switch at 32M at the end of 2018 they're definitively shipment numbers.

I can totally guarantee you that PS4 did not "sel to consumersl" 900k in 2014 in Spain like it's showing that graph. Those has to be shipment numbers in case of being true.

Its sell through, USA is based on NPD, Japan based on Media Create/Famitsu and Europe based on Gfk while RotW are estimates which explains the slight discrepancies.

Those USA numbers are indeed NPD, but i'm telling you those spanish numbers are not sell-through i saw the same GfK data in Spain saying that, so i can't believe any of the other european markets that are probably using the same tracking system. And in the end, the same guy put the total of PS4 and Switch using shipment numbers, so there's something fishy in this data.

This article from Vandal, the very same page that give us updated numbers from software in Spain put this article.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350721921/en-espana-la-ps4-normal-se-vende-cuatro-veces-mas-que-ps4-pro/

It shows the numbers from 2015 through 2018 and they are what i posted earlier. Between 500-600k each year. And i have to remind you that PS4 had an excellent start during its first year too (ending 2014).

Then this other article citing Sony itself saying PS4 have sold 3'3M lifetime around mid-half 2019 since launch.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350727730/sony-ha-vendido-casi-3-millones-de-ps4-en-espana/

That graph you brought says PS4 had already sold 3'6M by the end of 2018. If Spanish numbers are wrong, i can't trust any of the other european numbers showed in there.

Edit: And besides, i think i remember now Zhuge saying in resetera that those numbers were  not completely accurate in Europe but they were close enough.

Last edited by colafitte - on 02 December 2019

colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Its sell through, USA is based on NPD, Japan based on Media Create/Famitsu and Europe based on Gfk while RotW are estimates which explains the slight discrepancies.

Those USA numbers are indeed NPD, but i'm telling you those spanish numbers are not sell-through i saw the same GfK data in Spain saying that, so i can't believe any of the other european markets that are probably using the same tracking system. And in the end, the same guy put the total of PS4 and Switch using shipment numbers, so there's something fishy in this data.

This article from Vandal, the very same page that give us updated numbers from software in Spain put this article.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350721921/en-espana-la-ps4-normal-se-vende-cuatro-veces-mas-que-ps4-pro/

It shows the numbers from 2015 through 2018 and they are what i posted earlier. Between 500-600k each year. And i have to remind you that PS4 had an excellent start during its first year too (ending 2014).

Then this other article citing Sony itself saying PS4 have sold 3'3M lifetime around mid-half 2019 since launch.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350727730/sony-ha-vendido-casi-3-millones-de-ps4-en-espana/

That graph you brought says PS4 had already sold 3'6M by the end of 2018. If Spanish numbers are wrong, i can't trust any of the other european numbers showed in there.

Your numbers arent adding up either. The 2015-2018 numbers you posted add up to 2.27 million and they reported 134k for the 2013 launch putting it to ~2.4 million

The 3.3 million figure is from end of March 2019 so that would mean 2014+Q1 2019 would be about 900k which would make 2014 the peak year anyway.

My personal theory is that the Spain numbers in the link I posted also include Portugal, similar to how Northern Europe & Benelux were blocked together.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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@colafite
Man you are just wrong.
PS4 had its best year when Switch released. The sales curve and peak of PS4 are very much what was expected.
Each market have a slight different sales curve and peak point.
It was expected that one point PS3+X360 would close the lead from PS4 and X1, because X1 started much stronger than X360 but after couple years it got a lot weaker and we had plenty of sure that Kinect would make X360 get ahead of X1 at one time (and as show to you it was more in USA).
Also Wii declined due to itself and Nintendo moving to WiiU SW development, had nothing to do with PS3, X360 or even Kinect.
You have been show the graphics, you are just being stubborn.

Fun note PS3 could have outsold X360 in USA if it didn't had Kinect,



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

We are talking about systems that are 6 years old at this point and are about to take a gen leap next year, nothing is more conducive to their dwindling sales than that.



Dante9 said:
We are talking about systems that are 6 years old at this point and are about to take a gen leap next year, nothing is more conducive to their dwindling sales than that.

Exactly



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari said:
@colafite
Man you are just wrong.
PS4 had its best year when Switch released. The sales curve and peak of PS4 are very much what was expected.
Each market have a slight different sales curve and peak point.
It was expected that one point PS3+X360 would close the lead from PS4 and X1, because X1 started much stronger than X360 but after couple years it got a lot weaker and we had plenty of sure that Kinect would make X360 get ahead of X1 at one time (and as show to you it was more in USA).
Also Wii declined due to itself and Nintendo moving to WiiU SW development, had nothing to do with PS3, X360 or even Kinect.
You have been show the graphics, you are just being stubborn.

Fun note PS3 could have outsold X360 in USA if it didn't had Kinect,

And what if PS4 had its peak year when Switch launched? You can not affect an adversary if you're not selling at your best. When did i said that PS4 was affected just from the start by Switch??. I started saying that the effect has been mostly noted since last year through all 2019 just when Switch have exploded in sales in USA.

And i repeat, forget about Wii. What i meant to say with Wii in that comment was that when Wii disappeared for whatever the reasons there was a clear path to get more buyers into the system and X360 was the one who benefited the most. One less rival..., more sales, because they in fact, affect each other sales. If Kinect would've launched in 2008 instead of 2010 would've happened 2 things. A) Wii wouldn't have sold that much or B) Kinect wouldn't have been such a success. They would've compited against each other.

And you give me the reason then if you say PS3 could have outsold x360 in USA if it wasn't for Kinect. I don't understand why people are not taking into account that Kinect serves its purpose as a success for X360 as Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Odyssey did for Switch, or Fortite did for PS4/XBO. People want the most hottest item, during 2007-2009 was Wii, during 2010-2012 was Kinect, during 2013-2016 was next gen console combo (PS4 and XBO sold really similar to each other in USA during those years) and since 2017 Switch has been the candy.

Nobody can know for sure if PS4+XBO could have sold even more in 2018 and 2019 if Switch didn't existed. Like i said early, is just a hunch, an intuition. I have no proof for that. We'll just need to wait and see if by 2021 Switch "casually" stops to dominate US sales....

Edit: Another point to my argument is that Sony itself expected 16M shipped for this FY and they had to lower it to 13'5M, because sales were not going as high as they expected...

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Those USA numbers are indeed NPD, but i'm telling you those spanish numbers are not sell-through i saw the same GfK data in Spain saying that, so i can't believe any of the other european markets that are probably using the same tracking system. And in the end, the same guy put the total of PS4 and Switch using shipment numbers, so there's something fishy in this data.

This article from Vandal, the very same page that give us updated numbers from software in Spain put this article.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350721921/en-espana-la-ps4-normal-se-vende-cuatro-veces-mas-que-ps4-pro/

It shows the numbers from 2015 through 2018 and they are what i posted earlier. Between 500-600k each year. And i have to remind you that PS4 had an excellent start during its first year too (ending 2014).

Then this other article citing Sony itself saying PS4 have sold 3'3M lifetime around mid-half 2019 since launch.

https://vandal.elespanol.com/noticia/1350727730/sony-ha-vendido-casi-3-millones-de-ps4-en-espana/

That graph you brought says PS4 had already sold 3'6M by the end of 2018. If Spanish numbers are wrong, i can't trust any of the other european numbers showed in there.

Your numbers arent adding up either. The 2015-2018 numbers you posted add up to 2.27 million and they reported 134k for the 2013 launch putting it to ~2.4 million

The 3.3 million figure is from end of March 2019 so that would mean 2014+Q1 2019 would be about 900k which would make 2014 the peak year anyway.

My personal theory is that the Spain numbers in the link I posted also include Portugal, similar to how Northern Europe & Benelux were blocked together.

Maybe you're right in the fact that maybe the graph was showing Iberian numbers instead of only Spanish numbers. But one question, where did you get that 3'3M figure is from March 2019?. The article did not say anything about it and it was made in October 2019. 

And besides, that graph is still showing 740k in 2014 and 910k in 2015. Even if its Spain and Portugal combined, that's too much and then numbers from 2016-2018 are too low if Portugal is included too, because Spain is a bigger market for PS than Italy, and Italy is shown being around 600k during those years. I'm still not convinced about those numbers.

Please look what Zhuge says just below that graph...

"The US and Japan numbers are correct since it's based on NPD and Media Create/Famitsu data. The European country numbers are based on GfK data, but some seem to be upweighted / slightly different to what GfK reports."

It seems European numbers as a whole are not that trustworthy...

Anyway, i made my point and i think i already derailed the thread just enough. I just wanted to explain why i said what i said i already did it. 

Last edited by colafitte - on 02 December 2019

colafitte said:
DonFerrari said:
@colafite
Man you are just wrong.
PS4 had its best year when Switch released. The sales curve and peak of PS4 are very much what was expected.
Each market have a slight different sales curve and peak point.
It was expected that one point PS3+X360 would close the lead from PS4 and X1, because X1 started much stronger than X360 but after couple years it got a lot weaker and we had plenty of sure that Kinect would make X360 get ahead of X1 at one time (and as show to you it was more in USA).
Also Wii declined due to itself and Nintendo moving to WiiU SW development, had nothing to do with PS3, X360 or even Kinect.
You have been show the graphics, you are just being stubborn.

Fun note PS3 could have outsold X360 in USA if it didn't had Kinect,

And what if PS4 had its peak year when Switch launched? You can not affect an adversary if you're not selling at your best. When did i said that PS4 was affected just from the start by Switch??. I started saying that the effect has been mostly noted since last year through all 2019 just when Switch have exploded in sales in USA.

And i repeat, forget about Wii. What i meant to say with Wii in that comment was that when Wii disappeared for whatever the reasons there was a clear path to get more buyers into the system and X360 was the one who benefited the most. One less rival..., more sales, because they in fact, affect each other sales. If Kinect would've launched in 2008 instead of 2010 would've happened 2 things. A) Wii wouldn't have sold that much or B) Kinect wouldn't have been such a success. They would've compited against each other.

And you give me the reason then if you say PS3 could have outsold x360 in USA if it wasn't for Kinect. I don't understand why people are not taking into account that Kinect serves its purpose as a success for X360 as Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Odyssey did for Switch, or Fortite did for PS4/XBO. People want the most hottest item, during 2007-2009 was Wii, during 2010-2012 was Kinect, during 2013-2016 was next gen console combo (PS4 and XBO sold really similar to each other in USA during those years) and since 2017 Switch has been the candy.

Nobody can know for sure if PS4+XBO could have sold even more in 2017 and 2018 if Switch didn't existed. Like i said early, is just a hunch, an intuition. I have no proof for that. We'll just need to wait and see if by 2021 Switch "casually" stops to dominate US sales....

zorg1000 said:

Your numbers arent adding up either. The 2015-2018 numbers you posted add up to 2.27 million and they reported 134k for the 2013 launch putting it to ~2.4 million

The 3.3 million figure is from end of March 2019 so that would mean 2014+Q1 2019 would be about 900k which would make 2014 the peak year anyway.

My personal theory is that the Spain numbers in the link I posted also include Portugal, similar to how Northern Europe & Benelux were blocked together.

Maybe you're right in the fact that maybe the graph was showing Iberian numbers instead of only Spanish numbers. But one question, where did you get that 3'3M figure is from March 2019?. The article did not say anything about it and it was made in October 2019. 

And besides, that graph is still showing 740k in 2014 and 910k in 2015. Even if its Spain and Portugal combined, that's too much and then numbers from 2016-2018 are too low if Portugal is included too, because Spain is a bigger market for PS than Italy, and Italy is shown being around 600k during those years. I'm still not convinced about those numbers.

Please look what Zhuge says just below that graph...

"The US and Japan numbers are correct since it's based on NPD and Media Create/Famitsu data. The European country numbers are based on GfK data, but some seem to be upweighted / slightly different to what GfK reports."

It seems European numbers as a whole are not that trustworthy...

Sorry I'm used to the US way of writing dates, so I thought it was from April.

And Spain is still a bigger market than Italy, they just have different sales curves

2013-2015 PS4 sales

Spain-1.80m

Italy-1.17m

2016-2018 PS4 sales

Spain-1.80m

Italy-1.80m

Spain started out stronger with over 50% more sales through 2015 while Italy was a little slower to adopt and has it's best year when Spain had already begun to decline.

Besides, looking at only one console when talking about regions strengths isnt the best metric.

All consoles

Spain

2016-1.01m

2017-1.22m

2018-1.16m

Italy

2016-0.95m

2017-1.01m

2018-1.04m

Spain is still consistently selling more than Italy on a yearly basis.

"Some seem to be slightly different"

Even if they are off, its only be by a little bit and they are good reference points.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.