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usa: "PS4 has already sold more units this week > the last several months combined"

Forums - Sales Discussion - usa: "PS4 has already sold more units this week > the last several months combined"

colafitte said:

And that was my point. The "hot item" for USA during 2010-2012 was Kinect and affected a lot Wii (for a lot of different reasons too i admit) and PS3 sales. In Europe Kinect was not that big of a deal and PS3 was not affected in consequence.

Switch is having the same effect on XBO and PS4 sales in USA like Kinect had those years. It's the "hot item" now. It's the main selling point in every US videogame shop for this holiday season. It grabs all the attention, and people can spent so much money in videogames in the holidays....If you spend 300$ in a Switch, there's a lot less chances you buy a PS4 or XBO then.

It seems like there's a misunderstanding here. The charts pretty explicitly show that PS3 wasn't affected by Kinect in either the US or Europe, even as Xbox 360 skyrocketed in the US. Kinect didn't steal sales from PS3, it attracted sales from an audience that would not have purchased either of the HD twins otherwise.

The fact that you mention Wii actually detracts from your own argument. If you think Kinect caused a decline in Wii sales, then you acknowledge that it was the Kinect, rather than the base Gen 7 consoles, that had an overlap in audience with the Wii. This overlap does not exist between PS4 and Switch, because nothing like Kinect exists for the Gen 8 consoles.



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zorg1000 said:

I already addressed this, PS3/360 had slow starts and late peaks while PS4/XBO had stronger starts and earlier peaks. If Switch is the cause than we should have seen PS4/XBO display large YoY drops in 2017/2018 but they didnt.

As for your regional breakdown, Japan is a market in decline, it has little to do with Switch taking away from the others.

7th gen

PS3+360+Wii-~25 million

DS+PSP-~53 million

8th gen

PS4+XBO+Wii U-~12 million

3DS+Vita-~31 million

Saying that Switch is the cause of PS4 decline is ignoring so many different things.

Now for Europe & RotW, places like Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East, Southeast Asia, etc are what we call "emerging/developing markets" which means they have growing economies and growing consumer populations.

And like i said in my previous post, if PS4+XBO had stronger starts, i suppose in Europe too, then why PS4 sales in Europe were 1M better in 2017 and 2018 than in 2015 and 2016?? Why PS4 peaked later in Europe, already the biggest and most established region of dominion for Playstation brand??? Why in USA did not happened the same?



StarDoor said:
colafitte said:

And that was my point. The "hot item" for USA during 2010-2012 was Kinect and affected a lot Wii (for a lot of different reasons too i admit) and PS3 sales. In Europe Kinect was not that big of a deal and PS3 was not affected in consequence.

Switch is having the same effect on XBO and PS4 sales in USA like Kinect had those years. It's the "hot item" now. It's the main selling point in every US videogame shop for this holiday season. It grabs all the attention, and people can spent so much money in videogames in the holidays....If you spend 300$ in a Switch, there's a lot less chances you buy a PS4 or XBO then.

It seems like there's a misunderstanding here. The charts pretty explicitly show that PS3 wasn't affected by Kinect in either the US or Europe, even as Xbox 360 skyrocketed in the US. Kinect didn't steal sales from PS3, it attracted sales from an audience that would not have purchased either of the HD twins otherwise.

The fact that you mention Wii actually detracts from your own argument. If you think Kinect caused a decline in Wii sales, then you acknowledge that it was the Kinect, rather than the base Gen 7 consoles, that had an overlap in audience with the Wii. This overlap does not exist between PS4 and Switch, because nothing like Kinect exists for the Gen 8 consoles.

I knew i should not have named Wii, even if i said it was from a lot of reasons. I knew you could bring me that back. Erase Wii then from the conversation, like if i never mentioned it.

The moment Wii declined could've been an opportunity to PS3 to up their sales in USA like it happened in the rest of western regions, but it didn't happened in USA because X360 occupied Wii place during those years. Saying Kinect audience would have not bought a PS3 instead is something we will never know for sure. Maybe there was an audience post Wii era that wanted a COD console to play and Kinect was the defining factor to choose a X360 instead of a PS3 in USA. You can't prove that it was not a possibility.



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

I already addressed this, PS3/360 had slow starts and late peaks while PS4/XBO had stronger starts and earlier peaks. If Switch is the cause than we should have seen PS4/XBO display large YoY drops in 2017/2018 but they didnt.

As for your regional breakdown, Japan is a market in decline, it has little to do with Switch taking away from the others.

7th gen

PS3+360+Wii-~25 million

DS+PSP-~53 million

8th gen

PS4+XBO+Wii U-~12 million

3DS+Vita-~31 million

Saying that Switch is the cause of PS4 decline is ignoring so many different things.

Now for Europe & RotW, places like Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East, Southeast Asia, etc are what we call "emerging/developing markets" which means they have growing economies and growing consumer populations.

And like i said in my previous post, if PS4+XBO had stronger starts, i suppose in Europe too, then why PS4 sales in Europe were 1M better in 2017 and 2018 than in 2015 and 2016?? Why PS4 peaked later in Europe, already the biggest and most established region of dominion for Playstation brand??? Why in USA did not happened the same?

Read my last paragraph again, developing markets such as Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East &Southeast Asia are growing in economy and consumer spending but they are not yet on par with the developed regions like North America, Western Europe & Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte said:
StarDoor said:

It seems like there's a misunderstanding here. The charts pretty explicitly show that PS3 wasn't affected by Kinect in either the US or Europe, even as Xbox 360 skyrocketed in the US. Kinect didn't steal sales from PS3, it attracted sales from an audience that would not have purchased either of the HD twins otherwise.

The fact that you mention Wii actually detracts from your own argument. If you think Kinect caused a decline in Wii sales, then you acknowledge that it was the Kinect, rather than the base Gen 7 consoles, that had an overlap in audience with the Wii. This overlap does not exist between PS4 and Switch, because nothing like Kinect exists for the Gen 8 consoles.

I knew i should not have named Wii, even if i said it was from a lot of reasons. I knew you could bring me that back. Erase Wii then from the conversation, like if i never mentioned it.

The moment Wii declined could've been an opportunity to PS3 to up their sales in USA like it happened in the rest of western regions, but it didn't happened in USA because X360 occupied Wii place during those years. Saying Kinect audience would have not bought a PS3 instead is something we will never know for sure. Maybe there was an audience post Wii era that wanted a COD console to play and Kinect was the defining factor to choose a X360 instead of a PS3 in USA. You can't prove that it was not a possibility.

This is just as applicable to your argument as it is to mine. "Saying the Switch audience would have bought a PS4 instead if Switch didn't exist is something we will never know for sure." We may never know for sure, but we can speculate based on the data we have. I think there's far more evidence of the Xbox 360 reaching outside the typical Sony/Microsoft audience than there is of the Switch stealing sales from PS4/XOne.

Speaking of data, here's more of it:

North America Europe Japan Rest of World Global
PS2 + Xbox 69.42M 62.45M 23.71M 26.75M 182.33M
PS3 + Xbox 360 78.53M 60.86M 12.13M 21.69M 173.21M
% Change +13.12% -2.55% -48.84% -18.92% -5.00%

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

It's no coincidence that Gen 7 sold considerably more in North America than Gen 6 despite declining in every other region. Gen 8 won't reach Gen 7 in the US because Kinect gave Xbox 360 wider appeal than a typical Sony/Microsoft console. That's all there is to it.

Your argument follows the same thought process as "consoles are dying because WiiU+XOne+PS4 are way behind Wii+360+PS3." Consumers are perfectly fine with not buying any console during a generation if they're all unappealing. It doesn't mean the audience has shrunk, or moved somewhere else.



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colafitte said:
peachbuggy said:

The data you are referring to is SW not HW.

Yes, i was about to edit that because it made no sense...., i will change it. I was watching the end of the Lakers v Mavs game and i was not paying enough attention at what i was reading...., my apologies.....

Np. I thought I should check the article anyway, as Charttrack very rarely give out HW figures and I was amazed they would have such quick access to them at this particularly hectic time of year!



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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

And like i said in my previous post, if PS4+XBO had stronger starts, i suppose in Europe too, then why PS4 sales in Europe were 1M better in 2017 and 2018 than in 2015 and 2016?? Why PS4 peaked later in Europe, already the biggest and most established region of dominion for Playstation brand??? Why in USA did not happened the same?

Read my last paragraph again, developing markets such as Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East &Southeast Asia are growing in economy and consumer spending but they are not yet on par with the developed regions like North America, Western Europe & Japan.

In Spain, a western developed market, PS4 sold 535k in 2015, 560k in 2016, 585k in 2017 and 590k in 2018. So is just not developing markets in other parts of he world....I'm pretty sure in France, Italy, Germany and other european markets PS4 sold more in 2017 or 2018 than in 2015 or 2016. I seriously doubt any european country had PS4 peak in 2015 like what happened in USA.



StarDoor said:
colafitte said:

I knew i should not have named Wii, even if i said it was from a lot of reasons. I knew you could bring me that back. Erase Wii then from the conversation, like if i never mentioned it.

The moment Wii declined could've been an opportunity to PS3 to up their sales in USA like it happened in the rest of western regions, but it didn't happened in USA because X360 occupied Wii place during those years. Saying Kinect audience would have not bought a PS3 instead is something we will never know for sure. Maybe there was an audience post Wii era that wanted a COD console to play and Kinect was the defining factor to choose a X360 instead of a PS3 in USA. You can't prove that it was not a possibility.

This is just as applicable to your argument as it is to mine. "Saying the Switch audience would have bought a PS4 instead if Switch didn't exist is something we will never know for sure." We may never know for sure, but we can speculate based on the data we have. I think there's far more evidence of the Xbox 360 reaching outside the typical Sony/Microsoft audience than there is of the Switch stealing sales from PS4/XOne.

Speaking of data, here's more of it:

North America Europe Japan Rest of World Global
PS2 + Xbox 69.42M 62.45M 23.71M 26.75M 182.33M
PS3 + Xbox 360 78.53M 60.86M 12.13M 21.69M 173.21M
% Change +13.12% -2.55% -48.84% -18.92% -5.00%

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

It's no coincidence that Gen 7 sold considerably more in North America than Gen 6 despite declining in every other region. Gen 8 won't reach Gen 7 in the US because Kinect gave Xbox 360 wider appeal than a typical Sony/Microsoft console. That's all there is to it.

Your argument follows the same thought process as "consoles are dying because WiiU+XOne+PS4 are way behind Wii+360+PS3." Consumers are perfectly fine with not buying any console during a generation if they're all unappealing. It doesn't mean the audience has shrunk, or moved somewhere else.

I was not counting Nintendo consoles here because WiiU is a mess to compare to, that's why i was using what X360+PS3 did compared to what PS4+XBO are doing.

And yes, my point is just a speculation. I "believe" is what is happening because i can't proove any of it. I can't even tell you i am right and you're wrong, i'm not that confident, but i really believe that if one console cost 300$ to buy, with 60$ games to an audience that is mostly adults like PS4 audience, that console definitively affects the process of buying another console similar in price like PS4 or XBO. I'm not saying that any person buying only a Switch this holiday would buy a PS4 instead if Switch didn't existed, but i really believe that a considerable % of that consumer would've indeed bought a PS4 or XBO instead if that was the case, so in the end, yes, Switch is indeed affecting PS4 and XBO sales. How much??, i don't know, but it does.



colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Read my last paragraph again, developing markets such as Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East &Southeast Asia are growing in economy and consumer spending but they are not yet on par with the developed regions like North America, Western Europe & Japan.

In Spain, a western developed market, PS4 sold 535k in 2015, 560k in 2016, 585k in 2017 and 590k in 2018. So is just not developing markets in other parts of he world....I'm pretty sure in France, Italy, Germany and other european markets PS4 sold more in 2017 or 2018 than in 2015 or 2016. I seriously doubt any european country had PS4 peak in 2015 like what happened in USA.

You sure about that?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-from-2012-to-2018-in-several-countries.143820/

UK-peak 2014

France-peak 2014

Germany-peak 2017

Spain-peak 2015

Italy-peak 2016

Benelux (Belguim, Netherlands, Luxemburg)-peak 2015

Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland)-peak 2015

Germany is the only notable Western European country that didnt peak in 2014-2016 yet Europe as a whole had it's best years in 2017 & 2018. How could that be?

Western Europe vs total Europe (Eastern Europe)

2014-5.53m vs 6.05m (0.52m)

2015-6.03m vs 6.86m (0.83m)

2016-5.72m vs 6.80m (1.08m)

2017-5.76m vs 7.89m (2.13m)

2018-5.31m vs 7.78m (2.47m)

Look at that, Western Europe peaked in 2015 while Eastern Europe peaked in 2018.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

In Spain, a western developed market, PS4 sold 535k in 2015, 560k in 2016, 585k in 2017 and 590k in 2018. So is just not developing markets in other parts of he world....I'm pretty sure in France, Italy, Germany and other european markets PS4 sold more in 2017 or 2018 than in 2015 or 2016. I seriously doubt any european country had PS4 peak in 2015 like what happened in USA.

You sure about that?

https://www.resetera.com/threads/hardware-and-software-sales-from-2012-to-2018-in-several-countries.143820/

UK-peak 2014

France-peak 2014

Germany-peak 2017

Spain-peak 2015

Italy-peak 2016

Benelux (Belguim, Netherlands, Luxemburg)-peak 2015

Northern Europe (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland)-peak 2015

Germany is the only notable Western European country that didnt peak in 2014-2016 yet Europe as a whole had it's best years in 2017 & 2018. How could that be?

Western Europe vs total Europe (Eastern Europe)

2014-5.53m vs 6.05m (0.52m)

2015-6.03m vs 6.86m (0.83m)

2016-5.72m vs 6.80m (1.08m)

2017-5.76m vs 7.89m (2.13m)

2018-5.31m vs 7.78m (2.47m)

Look at that, Western Europe peaked in 2015 while Eastern Europe peaked in 2018.

Those are shipment numbers from that data you're using and are not the same as sold to consumers. The numbers i gave you for Spain were official for those years and were sold to consumers. The numbers we were always disscussing, at least me, were sold to consumers.

According to VGC data, France's peak was in 2017 and UK's and Germany's peak were in 2018. I suppose VGC must be based in official tracking, so ..., yes, even Western Europe peaked in 2017-2018.