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Will Terminator: Dark Fate Be The Lowest Grossing Sequel?

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Where Will T:DF End Up?

The Lowest of the Low 10 71.43%
 
Above Salvation 2 14.29%
 
Above Genisys 1 7.14%
 
Above T3 1 7.14%
 
Total:14

As I'm sure some of you are aware, the newest entry in the Terminator franchise released just a week ago.  Well, things aren't looking so hot for the film.  Seems like many aren't happy with a twist that happens near the beginning of the film, as well as adding plot points some would argue are only for woke points.  My question is, will it be the worst performing sequel in the franchise?

Domestic

Dark Fate has been on the market for 6 days.  The list below has its first 6 days compared with the other sequels in the franchise, and shows the others' DBO total.  T2 is not listed because I don't have the daily data for it.  And let's be honest, as the highest performing sequel, T:DF won't come close to it.

T3 Day 6 Total: $72.4M              DBO Total: $150.4M
Salvation Day 6 Total: $69M       DBO Total: $125.3M
Genisys Day 6 Total: $45.9M      DBO Total: $89.8M
T:DF Day 6 Total: $36.2M

Considering that DF opened slightly higher than Genisys, but has fallen much quicker than it, I think it's safe to assume it will be the lowest DBO of the series.  It seems the other 3 did roughly 2x their 6 day total in the end, so T:DF will most likely hit ~$72.5M for its DBO total.

Foriegn

We really only have the opening weekend for T:DF at the foriegn box office, so I will list those, as well as the others' totals.

T3 Opening: $44M                    FBO Total: $282.7M
Salvation Opening: $31.1M       FBO Total: $240.2M
Genisys Opening: $85.5M         FBO Total: $342.4M
T:DF Opening: $94.6M

While the opening looks great compared to the others, it's important to note that the openings of T3 and Salvation were much more staggered at the FBO.  Also, Genisys did very well at the Chinese BO, making $24.5M its first weekend, barely dropping in its second, and going on to make $105.4M.  While DF did open higher there than Genisys, $26.8M, reports are that, like the DBO, it is falling faster than Genisys after opening weekend.

So, will this be the worst performing Terminator sequel?  Does it even really matter, since it passed the all-important Bechdel Test?

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 07 November 2019

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Yes!



Chinese food for breakfast

 

COKTOE said:
Yes!

I agree.  Are you happy that the film passed the Bechdel Test?



Unfortunately. I actually hear it's a pretty good film. Salvation was so terrible in my opinion that I was done with the franchise. From what I hear, Genisys was pretty bad, too. Too many bad movies in a franchise will kill the audience. Hate seeing such a great series falter so badly.



Twitter: @d21lewis  --I'll add you if you add me!!

Yes, Dark Fate will almost certainly be the lowest grossing of the Terminator movies, but it has almost nothing to do with your anti-(whatever you're angry about this time) stance. Try to think a little more objectively about it.

The three movies before this ranged from not very good to terrible. At this point, it has been nearly 30 years since there has been a good Terminator movie. It holds no cache with younger audience and there is only so many times that older fans will get burned before tuning out. Even when the movie is better than it's predecessors, as this one was. Given the franchise history, this movie had to be more than better than the previous movies to get people to come out again. It had to be great. And, frankly, it was just fine. Not great, not terrible. Worth seeing, but maybe not in theaters.



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d21lewis said:
Unfortunately. I actually hear it's a pretty good film. Salvation was so terrible in my opinion that I was done with the franchise. From what I hear, Genisys was pretty bad, too. Too many bad movies in a franchise will kill the audience. Hate seeing such a great series falter so badly.

For Salvation, I thought it was just ok.  Two things that killed it were 1) scenes obviously only meant for the trailer that felt out of place in the film (the most notable example is John Connor talking to the Terminator hybrid calmly while he's in the water escaping, only to yell out of nowhere "What are you?!" when the convo is over) and 2) killing a freaking Terminator that could incredibly aid them in the fight just to save a human.

I thought Genisys had some interesting ideas with the alternate timeline, and I like the T-1000, who really was like a Asian Robert Patrick.  He was much better than the guy in Dark Fate, who doesn't look intimidating, at all.  It kind of fell apart in the latter half of the film, though.  I think miscasting also hurt it, as the actors who played Kyle Reese and John Connor looked nothing like the versions we have seen before and weren't really that interesting. 

I don't think those films have anything to do with the new one performing poorly.  I think most fans got excited when they heard Cameron was attached to the film, as well as Sarah Connor was returning.  But, after the promo shot and the trailer, I know I was turned off.  Didn't help that the director basically called fans who didn't like the promo shot misogynist trolls.  From what I have heard, this film wasn't very good.  I think the twist at the beginning killed it for a lot of people.  And Genisys actually did pretty good in China, $105.4M, while this one seems like it will do less.



thismeintiel said:
COKTOE said:
Yes!

I agree.  Are you happy that the film passed the Bechdel Test?

I was planning on killing myself if it hadn't passed the Bechdel Test.



Chinese food for breakfast

 

BradleyJ said:
Yes, Dark Fate will almost certainly be the lowest grossing of the Terminator movies, but it has almost nothing to do with your anti-(whatever you're angry about this time) stance. Try to think a little more objectively about it.

The three movies before this ranged from not very good to terrible. At this point, it has been nearly 30 years since there has been a good Terminator movie. It holds no cache with younger audience and there is only so many times that older fans will get burned before tuning out. Even when the movie is better than it's predecessors, as this one was. Given the franchise history, this movie had to be more than better than the previous movies to get people to come out again. It had to be great. And, frankly, it was just fine. Not great, not terrible. Worth seeing, but maybe not in theaters.

Who's angry?  At this point, I think it's freaking hilarious to watch these films either flop or greatly underperform.  It's cyclical, really.  Director and crew inserts woke message into the film, many times a franchise that has already proven itself, and advertises as such a big deal.  Fans react badly to said message.  Director and/or crew calls those fans misogynist trolls or a similar statement.  Movie performs poorly, either as a whole or against expectations.  Those who agreed with the woke message come up with poor reasons why that woke message and the attacks on the fans had nothing to with the poor performance.  Rinse and repeat.

COKTOE said:
thismeintiel said:

I agree.  Are you happy that the film passed the Bechdel Test?

I was planning on killing myself if it hadn't passed the Bechdel Test.

I'm glad it did, then. Don't want to lose you, man.



Well, it looks like Dark Fate is having just that, a dark fate.  It has dropped 63% in its 2nd weekend, an all-time low for the franchise.  The lowest drop in the franchise from previous sequels was 61% from Salvation.  However, the previous film Genisys dropped only 49%.  Below are the DBO totals after their first 10 days.

T3:           $90.8M
Salvation: $86.2M
Genisys:   $59M
T:DF:        $48.5M

The FBO isn't looking good, either.  Its best foreign market, China, is dropping much faster than Genisys did.  By its 2nd weekend, Genisys was at $77M.  While we don't have this weekend's Sunday numbers from China, it looks like T:DF will finish its 2nd weekend $30M+ below Genisys (currently at $40.5M without Sunday.)



The crazy thing about Dark Fate is that the awful "twist" that ruins everything at the start of the movie was the idea of James Cameron. It's insane, he butchered his own previous success and the franchise that made him a household name. To think he would do the same thing they did to Aliens with Alien 3 is baffling to me.

Anyway, fuck him and fuck this movie. I hope it crashes and burns so this awful story gets no sequels.