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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 26 October 2019

DonFerrari on 31 October 2019

Now we at least have a proper gap for Switch, but PS4 still stubbornly holding 200k weekly sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Mbolibombo on 31 October 2019
colafitte said:

According to VGC data, Switch sold last year from 27 oct 2018 to end of the year 8'1M and PS4 did 6'7M. Switch just doing the same as last year will put Switch sales around 19M in 2019 and 48'5M lifetime. It seems really probable Switch, thanks to Lite at 200$, is going to reach 20M this year and end close to 50M lifetime by the end of the year. Impressive stuff. Will this be the peak year of Switch?? I still think so, but who knows...

As for PS4, if the holiday season follow the % drop of all the year, PS4 should sell around 5-5'5M in the same period, so it seems PS4 is going to sell around 14'5-15'0M in 2019 as expected. That will put PS4 sales around 106'5-107'0M sold to consumers lifetime. If PS5 launches in November 2020, PS4 should add another 10M by then, so we can start to get a clearer picture of where PS4 will end when it's all said and done.

Pending on announced games for 2020 - I think next year could be the peak Switch year.

We still havnt seen a pricedrop and when the PS5 and Scarlett releases I definately think Nintendo has some wiggle room to be very agressive to compete during the holiday and after. Perma drop OG to 249$ and a Lite 169$ and it's going to be a no brainer for anyone remotely interested in Nintendo games.

Granted we know close to nothing about Switchs output next year but if they get a few more heavy hitters outside of Animal Crossing (which will obviously happen) I think we're in for a 20M+ year next fiscal year and after that sales will drop.



Agente42 on 31 October 2019
Mbolibombo said:
colafitte said:

According to VGC data, Switch sold last year from 27 oct 2018 to end of the year 8'1M and PS4 did 6'7M. Switch just doing the same as last year will put Switch sales around 19M in 2019 and 48'5M lifetime. It seems really probable Switch, thanks to Lite at 200$, is going to reach 20M this year and end close to 50M lifetime by the end of the year. Impressive stuff. Will this be the peak year of Switch?? I still think so, but who knows...

As for PS4, if the holiday season follow the % drop of all the year, PS4 should sell around 5-5'5M in the same period, so it seems PS4 is going to sell around 14'5-15'0M in 2019 as expected. That will put PS4 sales around 106'5-107'0M sold to consumers lifetime. If PS5 launches in November 2020, PS4 should add another 10M by then, so we can start to get a clearer picture of where PS4 will end when it's all said and done.

Pending on announced games for 2020 - I think next year could be the peak Switch year.

We still havnt seen a pricedrop and when the PS5 and Scarlett releases I definately think Nintendo has some wiggle room to be very agressive to compete during the holiday and after. Perma drop OG to 249$ and a Lite 169$ and it's going to be a no brainer for anyone remotely interested in Nintendo games.

Granted we know close to nothing about Switchs output next year but if they get a few more heavy hitters outside of Animal Crossing (which will obviously happen) I think we're in for a 20M+ year next fiscal year and after that sales will drop.

4th or 5th year - The Peak year. 

6th, 7th years- Transitional years 

8th, 9th - Limbo years



zorg1000 on 31 October 2019
colafitte said:

According to VGC data, Switch sold last year from 27 oct 2018 to end of the year 8'1M and PS4 did 6'7M. Switch just doing the same as last year will put Switch sales around 19M in 2019 and 48'5M lifetime. It seems really probable Switch, thanks to Lite at 200$, is going to reach 20M this year and end close to 50M lifetime by the end of the year. Impressive stuff. Will this be the peak year of Switch?? I still think so, but who knows...

As for PS4, if the holiday season follow the % drop of all the year, PS4 should sell around 5-5'5M in the same period, so it seems PS4 is going to sell around 14'5-15'0M in 2019 as expected. That will put PS4 sales around 106'5-107'0M sold to consumers lifetime. If PS5 launches in November 2020, PS4 should add another 10M by then, so we can start to get a clearer picture of where PS4 will end when it's all said and done.

Yeah, I'm thinking either this year or next year will be the peak for Switch but it's hard to tell since we don't really know what it has lined up for big games outside of Animal Crossing or how the Lite model will push sales long term or if any new revisions or price reductions will happen.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 31 October 2019

Now that's more like it. Switch outsells every other system combined.

With Luigi's Mansion arriving the week after this, then Pokemon two weeks later, then the holiday season, it's about to go into hypermode. 

Also, this is COD week right, is that why both PS4 and Xbone are up slightly?



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zorg1000 on 31 October 2019
curl-6 said:

Now that's more like it. Switch outsells every other system combined.

With Luigi's Mansion arriving the week after this, then Pokemon two weeks later, then the holiday season, it's about to go into hypermode. 

Also, this is COD week right, is that why both PS4 and Xbone are up slightly?

Next week also has the Pokemon edition Lite model which should shift some units.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

curl-6 on 31 October 2019
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Now that's more like it. Switch outsells every other system combined.

With Luigi's Mansion arriving the week after this, then Pokemon two weeks later, then the holiday season, it's about to go into hypermode. 

Also, this is COD week right, is that why both PS4 and Xbone are up slightly?

Next week also has the Pokemon edition Lite model which should shift some units.

Alrighty, for some reason I thought that came out alongside Sword/Shield. Yep, from here on out we're in for an interesting ride. 

Gotta say after so many years of the Wii U selling like trash, it feels so good to see Nintendo on fire again.



zorg1000 on 31 October 2019
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

Next week also has the Pokemon edition Lite model which should shift some units.

Alrighty, for some reason I thought that came out alongside Sword/Shield. Yep, from here on out we're in for an interesting ride. 

Gotta say after so many years of the Wii U selling like trash, it feels so good to see Nintendo on fire again.

Yep, even the 3DS only sold moderately well outside of Japan so its definitely nice to see such strong sales in each region.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ganoncrotch on 31 October 2019
curl-6 said:

Now that's more like it. Switch outsells every other system combined.

With Luigi's Mansion arriving the week after this, then Pokemon two weeks later, then the holiday season, it's about to go into hypermode. 

Also, this is COD week right, is that why both PS4 and Xbone are up slightly?

Not only every system combined, but you're including the 10k 3ds in that combination which are of course other Nintendo systems that they are going to be selling software to, Nintendo really are doing great work with the Switch from a hardware and software side of things, hopefully they keep riding that wave and don't end up bailing from the top of it and falling on their faces or just getting complacent and just riding it out until it dies down.

Good time to be Nintendo right now, upcoming Luigi's Mansion 3 and Pokemon will bring us into 2020 where Animal crossing will drop after it has had those extra months in the oven, holiday season should be great unless there is something really bad in Pokemon but I can't see it happening at this stage, they seem to be very good at dropping quality 85%+ titles on a regular basis.



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curl-6 on 01 November 2019

Switch 36% up YOY, very nice.

So much for claims that 2018 would be its peak year.