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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 4.8M for the quarter, 41.67 M total)

RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

oh my....Ok...So all my graphs were wrong until now. But that was just a problem of labeling, my data were correct. So we are now, in the Japan FY2020 right ?

Nintendo's corporate website uses the wording "fiscal term ended March XXXX", so I am not even sure anymore if the fiscal year ending March 2020 would be called FY2019 or FY2020. As long as you label your graphs unambiguously, it will be fine. Probably why it's common that the wording "fiscal year ending March" is being used because it's clearer which timeframe is meant.

I found how Nintendo names it on official reports, but I could not find it for SONY so I decided to simply let a blank cell...Now these data should be ok.

I am a partisan of those who believe that 2019 (FY 2020!) will be the peak year of the Switch. I hope we won't be chased and burnt alive if we are wrong...



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RolStoppable said:
Dulfite said:

Interesting chart. Is that just software sales, or hardware? And I'd be more interested in global figures than just US.

Rereading your comment I'm assuming this is just software sales? And the average they make per game is higher because they are mostly $60 to start, though their cost of development is also a higher average due to this being all HD rather than the 3DS standard definition.

The chart displays net sales which is another term for revenue, so the total amount of money spent on Nintendo products during each year. The figures are global, the US part in the headline of the image only refers to the currency of the numbers.

What's more interesting than a chart for net sales (a.k.a. revenue) is operating profit, so the money Nintendo has earned after their costs and expenses have been substracted.

This image highlights how much better Switch is for Nintendo than the 3DS and Wii U were. The sum of the 3DS and Wii U years evens out to about zero profit; the 3DS launched at the tail end of fiscal year 2011, so the vast majority of the 2011 bar are profits generated by the Wii and DS. Fiscal year 2012 is when Nintendo had to cut the price of the 3DS early and that caused the loss; afterwards the Wii U didn't help matters.

Switch launched at the tail end of fiscal year 2017, so it was available for only one month in the 2017 period. 2018 includes Switch in earnest and that's where profits are shooting up. Basically, Switch made Nintendo more profit in its first year than the 3DS and Wii U did during their entire lifetimes. 2019 shows further growth and the current fiscal year 2020 (not on the image) will see another slight increase. While Switch won't reach the same peak as the Wii and DS combined (2008-2010), it's doing leaps and bounds better than the 3DS and Wii U to become one of the most successful consoles of all time, regardless of which metrics are used (revenue, profit, hardware units, software units, tie ratio).

Thank you for this! Profit is, ultimately, the only thing that matters so it is cool to see this! So Really a proper profit comparison would be 2007 Wii/DS vs. 2018 Switch, and they are pretty darn close. But on the other hand, 2008 Wii/DS is blowing 2019 Switch out of the water, but I guess the Switch still has a few months left in the fiscal year to catch up?



"Nintendo's forecast for operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March 2020 is ~$2.5 billion, so that's short of any year between 2008-2010."

Which they are destroying, it could reach actually 4 billions.



So for the FY so far, Switch is at 6.93 million shipped. They're sticking to their 18 million forecast for now, so to top that it'll need to sell just over 11 million in the six months from October to March. (Which would bring them to just short of 53 million total at the end of this FY)



Deeds said:

"Switch Lite" is not doing as good as I hoped, but lets see what it does during the holidays.

It seems like others are saying otherwise. 1.95 million in 10 days or so is pretty impressive.

At the moment, most of the buyers are current Switch owners. Likely families or those who just want a second Switch but cheaper.

I think the holidays will be fine. The Pokemon Sw/Sh version of the Lite will release this upcoming Friday, a week before the launch of the games themselves.



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RolStoppable said:
RolStoppable said:
Region Hardware Software Tie Ratio
Japan 10.00m (24.0%) 44.93m (18.3%) 4.49
Americas 16.64m (39.9%) 110.22m (44.8%) 6.62
Europe 10.86m (26.1%) 74.43m (30.3%) 6.85
Other 4.17m (10.0%) 16.43m (6.7%) 3.94
Total 41.67m (100%) 246.01m (100%) 5.90

Switch above, 3DS below. Percentages are rounded, so do not necessarily add up to 100.0%. "Europe" was not its own category during the 3DS era, so it's part of "Other".

Region Hardware Software Tie Ratio
Japan 13.33m (38.1%) 44.84m (36.6%) 3.36
Americas 11.43m (32.7%) 42.81m (35.0%) 3.75
Other 10.22m (29.2%) 34.76m (28.4%) 3.40
Total 34.98m (100%) 122.42m (100%) 3.50

A breakdown to show how different the two systems performed. Switch's global breakdown is a lot more balanced because it's closer to a 20/40/40 split between Japan/Americas/Europe+Other which roughly represents the sizes of those regions. Switch sells a lot more software than the 3DS, not just because of higher hardware sales, hence why tie ratio is an important figure.

Obviously, such comparisons will become increasingly more lopsided in Switch's favor with each passing quarter. The third full fiscal year was the last good one for the 3DS, afterwards it will be a slaughter.

@tak13 The first table is Wii U alone because I had to get the numbers anyway and someone might be interested in such a comparison too. The second table is 3DS and Wii U combined.

Region Hardware Software Tie Ratio
Japan 2.48m (24.8%) 9.97m (16.3%) 4.02
Americas 4.85m (48.5%) 33.65m (55.0%) 6.94
Other 2.68m (26.8%) 17.61m (28.8%) 6.57
Total 10.01m (100%) 61.23m (100%) 6.12

By the way, I quoted my own post because it is the easiest way to have all four tables show up in one post.

Region Hardware Software Tie Ratio
Japan 15.81m (35.1%) 54.81m (29.8%) 3.47
Americas 16.28m (36.2%) 76.46m (41.6%) 4.70
Other 12.90m (28.7%) 52.37m (28.5%) 4.06
Total 44.99m (100%) 183.64m (100%) 4.08

Switch is already far ahead of 3DS+Wii U in terms of software and tie ratio, but still has to make up a bit of ground on hardware. The catch in a launch-aligned comparison of two consoles vs. one is that the two consoles get an early advantage because it isn't uncommon that one and the same person buys two devices as opposed to only one when there is only one console.

Bonus time: Upcoming quarters

Of course we don't only analyze the past, we also have to look into the future. the first 11 fiscal quarters for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, and 3DS+Wii U combined have been covered above, but here's how Switch will take the lead in the last remaining category, the hardware unit sales.

Q12 - 3DS: 7.76m, Wii U: 0.72m, Total: 8.48m.
Switch should have a good holiday quarter (8-9.5m), so the gap can likely be closed a bit.

Q13 - 3DS: 0.59m, Wii U: 1.87m, Total: 2.46m.
Despite this being a holiday quarter for the Wii U, the combined total is a figure that Switch can easily match or exceed from Jan-Mar 2020.

Q14 - 3DS: 0.82m, Wii U: 0.20m, Total: 1.02m.
This is the point where both the 3DS and Wii U have run out of steam and Switch will close the gap fast.

Q15 - 3DS: 1.27m, Wii U: 0.22m, Total: 1.49m.
Jul-Sep 2020 is yet another easy quarter for Switch.

Q16 - 3DS: 4.99m, Wii U: 0.34m, Total: 5.33m.
If it hasn't already happened in one of the previous quarters, this one will absolutely be the one where Switch passes 3DS+Wii U in LTD sales.

From Q13-16, 3DS+Wii U shipped 10.3m. Q13-16 for Switch will be Jan-Dec 2020 and I hope that even the most pessimistic people would put Switch at 15m for that timeframe after a strong 2019, so the current gap of 3.32m through 11 fiscal quarters will be eradicated for sure.

Q13-16 a.k.a. the fourth fiscal year is the final one where 3DS+Wii U exceeded 10m units. The Wii U added only 0.2m more to its lifetime sales afterwards, so it's essentially just the declining 3DS left which stabilized at ~7m per fiscal year for a while. The projected lifetime sales for 3DS+Wii U are 90m, so anyone who doubts that Switch will pass the 100m mark has to take some maths lessons.

So swiitch succeeds in every aspect.

All of the gap against ns, comes from Japan 3ds VS switch.

Thus, NS life emerged, fortunately!

By the way, is NS sales trajectory an indication that  3ds cannibalized wii u? 



tak13 said:
RolStoppable said:

@tak13 The first table is Wii U alone because I had to get the numbers anyway and someone might be interested in such a comparison too. The second table is 3DS and Wii U combined.

Region Hardware Software Tie Ratio
Japan 2.48m (24.8%) 9.97m (16.3%) 4.02
Americas 4.85m (48.5%) 33.65m (55.0%) 6.94
Other 2.68m (26.8%) 17.61m (28.8%) 6.57
Total 10.01m (100%) 61.23m (100%) 6.12

By the way, I quoted my own post because it is the easiest way to have all four tables show up in one post.

Region Hardware Software Tie Ratio
Japan 15.81m (35.1%) 54.81m (29.8%) 3.47
Americas 16.28m (36.2%) 76.46m (41.6%) 4.70
Other 12.90m (28.7%) 52.37m (28.5%) 4.06
Total 44.99m (100%) 183.64m (100%) 4.08

Switch is already far ahead of 3DS+Wii U in terms of software and tie ratio, but still has to make up a bit of ground on hardware. The catch in a launch-aligned comparison of two consoles vs. one is that the two consoles get an early advantage because it isn't uncommon that one and the same person buys two devices as opposed to only one when there is only one console.

Bonus time: Upcoming quarters

Of course we don't only analyze the past, we also have to look into the future. the first 11 fiscal quarters for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, and 3DS+Wii U combined have been covered above, but here's how Switch will take the lead in the last remaining category, the hardware unit sales.

Q12 - 3DS: 7.76m, Wii U: 0.72m, Total: 8.48m.
Switch should have a good holiday quarter (8-9.5m), so the gap can likely be closed a bit.

Q13 - 3DS: 0.59m, Wii U: 1.87m, Total: 2.46m.
Despite this being a holiday quarter for the Wii U, the combined total is a figure that Switch can easily match or exceed from Jan-Mar 2020.

Q14 - 3DS: 0.82m, Wii U: 0.20m, Total: 1.02m.
This is the point where both the 3DS and Wii U have run out of steam and Switch will close the gap fast.

Q15 - 3DS: 1.27m, Wii U: 0.22m, Total: 1.49m.
Jul-Sep 2020 is yet another easy quarter for Switch.

Q16 - 3DS: 4.99m, Wii U: 0.34m, Total: 5.33m.
If it hasn't already happened in one of the previous quarters, this one will absolutely be the one where Switch passes 3DS+Wii U in LTD sales.

From Q13-16, 3DS+Wii U shipped 10.3m. Q13-16 for Switch will be Jan-Dec 2020 and I hope that even the most pessimistic people would put Switch at 15m for that timeframe after a strong 2019, so the current gap of 3.32m through 11 fiscal quarters will be eradicated for sure.

Q13-16 a.k.a. the fourth fiscal year is the final one where 3DS+Wii U exceeded 10m units. The Wii U added only 0.2m more to its lifetime sales afterwards, so it's essentially just the declining 3DS left which stabilized at ~7m per fiscal year for a while. The projected lifetime sales for 3DS+Wii U are 90m, so anyone who doubts that Switch will pass the 100m mark has to take some maths lessons.

So swiitch succeeds in every aspect.

All of the gap against ns, comes from Japan 3ds VS switch.

Thus, NS life emerged, fortunately!

By the way, is NS sales trajectory an indication that  3ds cannibalized wii u? 

I don't think so. 

Wiiu fall apart because of the guidelines and concept. Not because 3ds cannibalized. 3ds inital sales are bad, then Nintendo needs to survive in the handheld market. Early price cut and focus on handheld market. Nintendo have prioritized handheld market. It's most stable market for nintendo.