Idk, DS selling nearly double PSP should have made anyone hesitant in predicting the two would sell similar numbers.
Not when the original scenario had a much more powerful Vita launching at the same price as the weaker 3DS. Nintendo knew that wasn't going to be an ideal battle, so dropped the price so low, the power difference didn't really matter anymore. And, like I said, the HH market shrinking incredibly meant there wasn't even room for two HHs to do good numbers.
The power difference in general never mattered, the 30 year history of Nintendo handhelds proves that.
So Vita was going to outsell 3DS if it stayed at $250 but the price cut to $170 caused it to sell almost 5x as much Vita? That one move changed things so much that it was going to have over 50% marketshare but ended up with only 17.5% marketshare?
That just doesnt add up. You could argue it would have fared better without the big price cut, maybe similar marketshare that PSP got (34.4%) but there is no way such a huge shift was going to happen when you consider that the biggest handheld franchises like Pokemon, Animal Crossing & Monster Hunter were already announced for 3DS well before Vita even released.
The price cut had little to do with Vita and had alot more to do with the fact that it had a terrible post-launch drought causing sales were slow. The price cut absolutely helped things in a big way but sales were going to pick up even without it when Mario 3D Land, Mario Kart 7 & Monster Hunter Tri all released just weeks apart in Fall 2011 and had a steady stream of big games from that point onward.