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Forums - Sales Discussion - So.. CNBC says Xbox has sold 46.9 WW, any thoughts?

Conina said:

It is an (30 years old) established business news channel worth roughly $4 billion with coverage of U.S. and international financial markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNBC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Data_Corporation

And IDC is one of the bigger market research companies with thousands of analysts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Data_Corporation

But sure, let's just ignore or ridicule their estimates because the estimates of some other analysts are more in line with our own bias.

That's nice. Are you writing a research paper?

Doesn't explain where they got that 46.9 million number from or the fact that the 0.3% of sales coming from Japan does not match at all with the actual statistic you get when you divide 110,000 units (the amount of Xbox One units reportedly sold in Japan) by 0.003, which gets you to 36,666,667 units. 

Even if we're being generous and say that the percentage of sales is actually 0.25%, and we just rounded up to 0.3%, that would still only equate to 44 million units sold, which is WAY off that 46.9 million mark. 

So they obviously fucked up somewhere. And unless we get numbers or confirmation from the only party or source that matters, Microsoft, then we can't take what these guys are saying seriously, because what they're saying doesn't make any sense.



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Jigsawx1 said:
zorg1000 said:

Can we agree in the middle and say Xbox One has sold average? It's no sales disaster like Wii U or Vita (sub-20m) but not a beast like PS4 or Switch (over 100m) or would average be something a bit higher like 3DS (~75m)?

The Switch is at 38 million at the moment why are you so sure that they will reach 100 million? i think after the release of xbox scarlett and ps5 switch sales will drop alot.

sorry for double post!

It's proven that that does not happen to consoles except in their own line of hardware. It didn't happen to Xbone or ps4 when switch launched and  it won't happen to the switch. The switch will sell at it's own pace and momentum. And it has a damn good shot at reaching 100mil if it sells 20mil+ this year and still sells more next year. It will easily cross the Xbone this holiday. And even if it doesn't reach 100mil, it'll be damn close to it. Nothing that's selling so well just drops off in sales like people imagine. Most consoles when they start selling keep selling unless the creators themselves i.e ninty in this mess up real bad



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

The Switch WILL outsell the PS4 when all is said and done. As for the Xbox One numbers, who cares? The console was a failure. Better luck next gen to Microsoft.



Radek said:
Deeds said:

The Switch WILL outsell the PS4 when all is said and done. As for the Xbox One numbers, who cares? The console was a failure. Better luck next gen to Microsoft.

It will outsell the Wii but it won't sell 120 millions to outsell the PS4.

^ I bet the PS4 does 120m+ before the PS5 even launches.
And still has another 15m+ in it, before its end of its life.

Switch will need to go beyound 135m to be sure to beat the PS4 life time sales.



PAOerfulone said:

That's nice. Are you writing a research paper?

Sorry if I want to have an informed discussion supported by facts instead of pure bashing and wild speculations. Obviously here is not the right place for that.

PAOerfulone said:

Doesn't explain where they got that 46.9 million number from or the fact that the 0.3% of sales coming from Japan does not match at all with the actual statistic you get when you divide 110,000 units (the amount of Xbox One units reportedly sold in Japan) by 0.003, which gets you to 36,666,667 units. 

Even if we're being generous and say that the percentage of sales is actually 0.25%, and we just rounded up to 0.3%, that would still only equate to 44 million units sold, which is WAY off that 46.9 million mark. 

So they obviously fucked up somewhere. And unless we get numbers or confirmation from the only party or source that matters, Microsoft, then we can't take what these guys are saying seriously, because what they're saying doesn't make any sense.

What you don't understand (or ignore):

  • the 0.3% of sales coming from Japan aren't a fact, they are an estimate with margins of error
  • the Famitsu numbers aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
  • the VGC numbers aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
  • the IDC numbers aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
  • the numbers of the analyst Daniel Ahmad aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
  • the numbers analysts X, Y or Z aren't facts but estimates with margins of error
  • we don't know which numbers are the closest to the truth until Microsoft gives that information eventually
  • multiplying or dividing estimate A with estimate b to prove that estimate C is wrong is a fool's errand and only serves confirmation bias



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BraLoD said:
Deeds said:

The Switch WILL outsell the PS4 when all is said and done. As for the Xbox One numbers, who cares? The console was a failure. Better luck next gen to Microsoft.

No it won't.

Oh yes it will. I'll put money on that. And since Microsoft will still make a successor to the Xbox One (which will limit PS5s max sales potential by stealing marketshare from it) the Switch will also outsell the PS5 total sales.



Radek said:
Deeds said:

The Switch WILL outsell the PS4 when all is said and done. As for the Xbox One numbers, who cares? The console was a failure. Better luck next gen to Microsoft.

It will outsell the Wii but it won't sell 120 millions to outsell the PS4.

I bet many of you thought the Switch could NOT outsell the PS4 in Japan, using the excuse (Switch cant outsell the PS4 without Capcom, Konami, Square, etc. biggest games) and now here we are. Again, dont underestimate the selling potential of Nintendo's games. They are still charting at full price. That is a signal that is shining right in your face.



RolStoppable said:
Conina said:

It is an (30 years old) established business news channel worth roughly $4 billion with coverage of U.S. and international financial markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNBC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Data_Corporation

And IDC is one of the bigger market research companies with thousands of analysts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Data_Corporation

But sure, let's just ignore or ridicule their estimates because the estimates of some other analysts are more in line with our own bias.

As far as I remember, IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 number wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report. They may have lots of analysts, but apparently none that have enough competence for video game sales. There's no good reason to give IDC the benefit of the doubt when they couldn't even correctly relay a PS4 number that came directly from Sony.

If we rule out every person or company by default who has been proven wrong at least once in his/her estimates, there aren't any left, including the VGC numbers of course.

"They are always wrong" is as generalizing as "they are always right and I blindly trust their numbers".



Pull up the Amazon US bestseller list and take a look. Zelda and Smash is still way up there. Every time one of these games sell a Switch is sold and these games are years old and arent slowing down. Again, DO NOT underestimate Nintendo's games selling power. When Nintendo's game take off, they TAKE OFF.



RolStoppable said:
Conina said:

It is an (30 years old) established business news channel worth roughly $4 billion with coverage of U.S. and international financial markets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNBC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Data_Corporation

And IDC is one of the bigger market research companies with thousands of analysts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Data_Corporation

But sure, let's just ignore or ridicule their estimates because the estimates of some other analysts are more in line with our own bias.

As far as I remember, IDC is the market research firm that got their PS4 number wrong despite Sony officially announcing it about three months before the IDC report. They may have lots of analysts, but apparently none that have enough competence for video game sales. There's no good reason to give IDC the benefit of the doubt when they couldn't even correctly relay a PS4 number that came directly from Sony.

Now that's an interesting fact that I would like to check. By any chance do you have a link for that? I tried to find it, but all I got was an article from Dec, 2017 where their senior analyst said, "I think the PS4 will probably get to 100 million in 2019."


https://www.tweaktown.com/news/60278/analyst-ps4-hit-100-million-2019-ps5-launch-2021/index.html