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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2019 thread

SwitchUP said:
Deeds said:

Yes and yes. First of all, the discussion about Sony "shutting down" NPD and Media create are not solely my idea. This has been discussed on Resetera and even Neogaf way back in the day. Second of all, even during the dark days of Wii U, Nintendo STILL showed sales data, unlike Microsoft who has gone radio silent on Xbox One hardware, and Sony going silent on the Vita sales. And I find it funny because it wont mean much in the end. Shutting up Media create did NOT save the PS4 in Japan. Being silent on Vita did not stop it from BOMBING. It also shows how pathetic and immature the leadership at Sony and Microsoft are.

Third of all I think the Switch is going to outsell the PS4 and the PS5 will sell LESS than the PS4. That's my prediction.

While I'm not sold on the idea of Sony being the cause for media going so private.... I agree with everything else. Nintendo has been quite forthcoming when it comes to sales numbers, even when they sucked absolute ass. They always put the numbers out there. Sony... Microsoft... as soon as a product of theirs doesnt lighte the world ablaze, go completely silent to the point that a site like this one has to try to come up with the numbers... and I've ALWAYS thought the vita is severely over tracked here, I think the thing has sat at around 12 or 13 million max... and the x1 too, low 40 millions... I also agree 100% that the ps5 will sell less than the ps4.... and the switch may outsell both..... COMBINED, all said and done. But..... having said all that, I just cant really convince myself that Sony is that concerned over the the ps4 or ps5 Japan sales to the point that they somehow silence a sales reporting firm.... why bother when famitsu still does and is basically the same exact shit.

That's some...  bold prediction right there.



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SpokenTruth said:

This is 100% true but still doesn't explain the complete lock down of numbers.

The NPD reports that companies pay for are huge.  The volume of data and analysis is just massive.  The top 10 list is just a tiny, and somewhat irrelevant sliver, of what NPD reports cover and are valued for.  By that I mean no company is paying $10k per month just for top 10 lists.  It's the deep dive they pay for.  The return sales for warranty information they pay for.  The trending analysis they pay for.  They predictive analytics they pay for. The regional data they pay for.  They tie-ins with marketing budgets to measure ROI they pay for.  The individual store POS to stock level data they pay for.  It's the retailer vs retailer data they pay for.  It's the weekly (not just monthly) data they pay for.

This whole hide the monthly top 10 from consumers bit because it would devalue the overall product....?  Like an NPD subscription itself, I don't buy that.

Of course it does! 

NPD sees this as valuable information so the only way to protect this value is to effectively gate it off from the public. NPD's business relies on collecting data solely for the purpose of sharing it to their customers, not for the public ... 

It's hard work to compile data so it's reasonable for them to take measures so that others don't profit off from it or make use of it ... 



SpokenTruth said:

I'll phrase it a different way.....

Companies paying $10k per month are not paying for the top 10 monthly sales chart.  That's a tiny byproduct.

What if I told you that the top 10 monthly chart was far more valuable relative to the rest of the NPD Group's other data ? 

Not all data has the same value ... 



SpokenTruth said:

The top 10 monthly sales is more valuable than.....

It's the deep dive they pay for. The return sales for warranty information they pay for. The trending analysis they pay for. They predictive analytics they pay for. The regional data they pay for. They tie-ins with marketing budgets to measure ROI they pay for. The individual store POS to stock level data they pay for. It's the retailer vs retailer data they pay for. It's the weekly (not just monthly) data they pay for.

??????

Just because you don't see much value in the top 10 monthly sales data doesn't mean that NPD or their customers don't ... 

This is exactly what I meant by unduly profiting off from their work and now I can see why the NPD Group would rather opt-in for more secrecy if it means stopping this behaviour ... 

Don't worry though, if you don't appreciate the value of some of the data they collect then their customers will by plopping ~$10K a month to show for it and the top 10 monthly sales data is included in a part of that package ... 

How hard is it to understand that they don't want to diminish the value of ANY of their data ? 



SpokenTruth said:

Read what I said again.  Because you seem to be under the impression I said the Top 10 Monthly Sales didn't have any value at all.  So, go read that again.

Then why are you downplaying the value of the top 10 monthly sales data so much ? 

SpokenTruth said:

And by the way, customers paid that $10k per month even when the data was public.  And they didn't gain any new customers on the sale basis that the top 10 became private.  The Top 10 Monthly Combined Sales per unit dollar chart is not worth $10k per month. The deep dive analytics, return sales for warranty information, trending analysis they pay for, predictive analytics, regional data, tie-ins with marketing budgets to measure ROI, individual store POS to stock level data, retailer vs retailer data, the weekly data, etc..... THAT's worth $10k.

It is to the NPD, end of story ...

Also analysis is not useful without the data ... 

SpokenTruth said:

NPDs decision to remove the Top 10 from public disclosure was not a value-add move. It was not a customer retention move.  It was not a customer acquisition move.  

NPDs crackdown on leakers would indicate otherwise ... 

SpokenTruth said:

And I don't know what behavior your accusing me, nor what behavior I have engaged in that would be detrimental to the value of NPDs Top 10 Monthly Combined Sales per unit dollar data.  

Well here's one which is you right now belittling the value of some of the work they're doing ... 



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So, no new numbers?



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fatslob-:O said:
SpokenTruth said:

This is 100% true but still doesn't explain the complete lock down of numbers.

The NPD reports that companies pay for are huge.  The volume of data and analysis is just massive.  The top 10 list is just a tiny, and somewhat irrelevant sliver, of what NPD reports cover and are valued for.  By that I mean no company is paying $10k per month just for top 10 lists.  It's the deep dive they pay for.  The return sales for warranty information they pay for.  The trending analysis they pay for.  They predictive analytics they pay for. The regional data they pay for.  They tie-ins with marketing budgets to measure ROI they pay for.  The individual store POS to stock level data they pay for.  It's the retailer vs retailer data they pay for.  It's the weekly (not just monthly) data they pay for.

This whole hide the monthly top 10 from consumers bit because it would devalue the overall product....?  Like an NPD subscription itself, I don't buy that.

Of course it does! 

NPD sees this as valuable information so the only way to protect this value is to effectively gate it off from the public. NPD's business relies on collecting data solely for the purpose of sharing it to their customers, not for the public ... 

It's hard work to compile data so it's reasonable for them to take measures so that others don't profit off from it or make use of it ... 

The value is in the reports which have far more detail than sales numbers. These companies are not paying thousands of dollars to get how much game X sold, especially as that information was given away for free while reports were being sold. You're paying for the analysis. 

It's hard to not see the NPD's current set-up as nothing more than marketing for the ESA. Only give out good news and spin the rest. Not like anyone can check the numbers. 



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I don't even do bets on this site but the prediction SwitchUp made is so bold that I am willing to do a permaban bet that it won't happen lol. The Switch outselling the PS4 and the PS5 COMBINED......yeah I would take that bet for sure.....



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Shadow1980 said:
Here's the top three best-guess predictions from Era:


cakely said:
[NSW] 428K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 112K

Myriotes said:
[NSW] 444K
[PS4] 222K
[XB1] 159K

Shock32 said:
[NSW] 410k
[PS4] 205k
[XB1] 135k


User "James" said:

"A cursory look gives these ranges:

XB1: min = 130500, max = 155500
PS4: min = 0, max = 197000
NSW: min = 428000, max = 439500"

Not sure what to put in my charts. I may just split the difference and do an average of them.

What makes those guesses more accurate than others?



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Shadow1980 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

What makes those guesses more accurate than others?

Apparently, somebody at Era knows the actual NPD numbers and they've been doing a thing where the people who guess closest get top predictor status. Since the leaks have all been shut down, it's probably the best we're going to get.

We'll take anything we can get at this point.



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