I am certain this will happen.
I would guess $400 and $600 at launch.
The reason I am certain is because we have essentially 2 groups of consumers, we have the ones with a 1080p display and a 4k display. The requirements for diferent resolution, is completly diffenrent, and making a next gen console that can run 4k would require too much money, so they will need to charge $150+ minimum.
While the majority of player still running a Full HD display, there is no reason they should have to pay for something they will not see.
Next generation I believe they will try to increase visual fidelity with some degree of ray tracing, this is totally feasible for $400 (which they know is the sweet spot price),for 1080p in 2020.
While for 4k 30fps, would require a equal consoles with a $150 more expensive graphic card, since would require at least twice the processing power ( while pixels is 4 times, processing power is closer to 2.5x)
I believe both consoles will have ssd, but perhaps the $600 one wil have a larger capacity at launch, which makes sense, since I believe the download for the two versions could be sligthly different due to lower resolution textures on the base model.
With this setup I described I believe developers will choose which they will focus, 60fps OR 30fps with ray tracing, across both models. Will be very interesting to see this play out, having either high fidelity game OR high refresh game. While the option for resolution versus price will be completly a decision of the consumers considering his TV setup and money to burn.
From a marketing point of view, this also does make sense, having a base and pro market. This is a requirement for next generation, please the 4k crowd while pushing fidelity for everyone. There is always those that want to pay premium also, usually those that want the best, paired with very costly TVs and monitors.
I also believe there will be only ssd option, this saves space, heat and load times will be marketed and be one of the biggest selling points. Making 1tb low cost custom ssd is totally feasible, and slower ssds paired with custom made software and hardware, will make loading times virtually instant. And players will want this feature, if either microsoft or sony dont deliver this for all their base, they will lose the battle.
Also consider that the gpu cost should be around 100 of the production cost, so being able to charge 200 more would essentially make them able to buy a gpu essentially 3 times more expensive, enough for 2.5x times more powerfull. ( I know will be a APU, but is analogos)
Last edited by solidpumar - on 21 September 2019