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Famitsu Sales: W37, 2019 (Sep 09 - Sep 15)

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W37, 2019 (Sep 09 - Sep 15)

Next week is going to be awesome!



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Marth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
This is the Week before the Lite launches, right? Pretty good hold, and possibly over 100k next week.

Also, PES and BL3 allow the PS4 to have a good hold, too.

Don't know if I am reading that correctly, but I think Chris1964 on Era is implying 200k next week.

Ya hes saying 150-200k for Lite is a good estimate, then factor in the regular model probably doing 30-40k so 200k+ seems likely.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

3DS price cut-196k
3DS XL-230k
New 3DS/XL-262k

Switch Lite week looks to be in the same range as the 3DS price cut/revisions.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

So, I did a bit of digging and calculating for when the DS Lite and 3DS XL launched in Japan and how they affected DS and 3DS sales respectively before and after their launch.

DS Lite - Launched March 2, 2006:
Before: 43,765
After: 124,286 - 184% increase

3DS XL - Launched July 28, 2012
Before: 43,291
After: 239,273 - 453% increase

This is how the Switch Lite would affect sales next week if it has one of those two percentage increases:
Before: 51,619
After (184%) 146,590
After (453%) 285,303

We should expect the Switch Lite affect to be somewhere in the middle, although I think we'll get something closer to the DS Lite effect than the 3DS XL one. Next week's numbers are going to be big ones; Very important ones for the Switch and Nintendo.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
So, I did a bit of digging and calculating for when the DS Lite and 3DS XL launched in Japan and how they affected DS and 3DS sales respectively before and after their launch.

DS Lite - Launched March 2, 2006:
Before: 43,765
After: 124,286 - 184% increase

3DS XL - Launched July 28, 2012
Before: 43,291
After: 239,273 - 453% increase

This is how the Switch Lite would affect sales next week if it has one of those two percentage increases:
Before: 51,619
After (184%) 146,590
After (453%) 285,303

We should expect the Switch Lite affect to be somewhere in the middle, although I think we'll get something closer to the DS Lite effect than the 3DS XL one. Next week's numbers are going to be big ones; Very important ones for the Switch and Nintendo.

The other big factor in comparing these two launches it what happened in the weeks following the release of the updated version.  With DS Lite, the number kept increasing every week for a number of weeks following the DS Lite launch.  In fact, the 124,286 at launch was the LOWEST weekly number for many months following.  The baseline essentially tripled.  The 3DS XL, however, was a one-time spike that immediately came down each following week, only staying over 100K for the next 3 weeks.  After 2 months, the baseline was almost the same as it had been before.

I think we can all expect a big launch week for Switch Lite, but I'm very interested to see what happens in the weeks following as well.



SW-3707-5131-3911

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The thing to remember with the DS and 3DS is the different circumstances and times of when they were released. 2006 was when handheld gaming was at its peak in Japan. The DS was selling monstrous numbers while the PSP was selling respectably well and on the rise. The DS had its peak year over there with around 8.4 million units sold; And then in 2007, it sold another 7.2 million units in Japan. No other system has come even remotely close those levels ever since, not even the 3DS, which peaked at a little less then 5.5 million units in 2012, the same year the 3DS XL and Animal Crossing: New Leaf came out. We've gone 12 years without a system reaching even 6 million units sold in Japan. The biggest culprit in that, by far, is the rise of the smartphone/mobile market which has led to the decline of the dedicated handheld market. Because of that, we are never going to see a system reach those baselines and levels of sales in Japan. It's never going to happen again. I expect the Switch Lite to raise the baseline, but not to THOSE levels.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 18 September 2019

Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:

The thing to remember with the DS and 3DS is the different circumstances and times of when they were released. 2006 was when handheld gaming was at its peak in Japan. The DS was selling monstrous numbers while the PSP was selling respectably well and on the rise. The DS had its peak year over there with around 8.4 million units sold; And then in 2007, it sold another 7.2 million units in Japan. No other system has come even remotely close those levels ever since, not even the 3DS, which peaked at a little less then 5.5 million units in 2012, the same year the 3DS XL and Animal Crossing: New Leaf came out. We've gone 12 years without a system reaching even 6 million units sold in Japan. The biggest culprit in that, by far, is the rise of the smartphone/mobile market which has led to the decline of the dedicated handheld market. Because of that, we are never going to see a system reach those baselines and levels of sales in Japan. It's never going to happen again. I expect the Switch Lite to raise the baseline, but not to THOSE levels.

That's depressing



As of this week's numbers, Mario Odyssey has sold over 2 million in Japan alone, making it the 4th Switch game to cross this threshold after Smash, MK8D, and Splatoon 2

https://gonintendo.com/stories/344936-super-mario-odyssey-sells-2-million-physical-copies-in-japan-alon



Next week will be interesting for sure



The difference between the Switch Lite and DS Lite is that the DS Lite was an objectively better version of the console to have. With the Switch Lite, you are losing a lot of the Switch's core features and limiting the amount of games you can play. Once things settle down I'm curious which SKU will sell better. I feel like in the US the regular Switch model will regularly outsell the Switch Lite, but maybe not in Japan.

Clearly some people are holding out for the Lite, as Switch sales have dropped in anticipation of this release.