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Grab Bag of Weekly Game Sales from a Big Box Retailer (US)

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mk7sx said:
Wow! MK8D w/bundles moved almost as many units as Pokemon' launch week.

Pokemon itself has some 2.3x it's launch week.

And BOTW LOL. That number is higher than some launches.

First major discount since release and Nintendo underestimated stock I think. It blew up to #1 on Amazon Best Sellers and then ran out of stock mid-Friday and tanked. Ran out of stock again this week as well.

50% discounted was a killer price for BOTW, it went past above Link's Awakening spot in a yearly chart in just 3-4 hours before the stock ran out. In digital front with 30% discounted price it managed to rank in number 7 position in N/A behind Fortnite(one of the biggest games in this gen), Smash Bros Ultimate(8m units sold-through), Pokemon SwSh(3m units opener), Luigi's Mansion 3(another big opener), Minecraft(Digital monster), and Zelda Botw. 

Last year Q3 without aggressive pricing for BOTW = 1.4m shipped and I do think it will ship around 2m-2.5m in this Q3 after that discount. 



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Yeah I think that's the range as well.

LTD is going to be an absurd total, among the best ever for 1P-focused games.

2M to close out this year puts it at ~4.9M for the calendar year, basically flat from 2018, and sitting at ~16.5M total.  Greater than 2M results in an increase for Cal 18 > 19.

Even a 25% YoY in 2020 gets it over 20M by the end of the year.  More promotions and/or BOTW2 marketing cycle can boost it as well (think a direct sequel is more likely to boost it, not hamper it), depending on when it releases.

I think it's got its sights set on >25M LTD, maybe closer to 30M.  And then 1.61M from the Wii U version as gravy on top of that.

Also BOTW2's launch perf is going to be almost at Pokemon/Smash levels with this kind of WOM for the first. In the US it could be higher.



Unfortunately, I couldn't get any data this week.



So for some reason some of the 2017 Switch games I know we still sell aren't in the database, so there are a few glaring omissions this week.

Week ending 12-14:

Jedi: Fallen Order (week 4)

  • PS4 (standard): 18,000
  • XB1: missing from db
  • Xbox One S bundles: 800
  • Xbox One X bundles: 1700

Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice (week 39, Game Awards GOTY winner week)

  • PS4: 500
  • XB1: 200

Death Stranding (week 6): 3100

Super Mario Odyssey: 5300

Smash Ultimate: 19,100

Gears 5 (week 14): 1700

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 21,400



Great!!

Super Saturday week is up next!



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Mr_Destiny said:

So for some reason some of the 2017 Switch games I know we still sell aren't in the database, so there are a few glaring omissions this week.

Week ending 12-14:

Jedi: Fallen Order (week 4)

  • PS4 (standard): 18,000
  • XB1: missing from db
  • Xbox One S bundles: 800
  • Xbox One X bundles: 1700

Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice (week 39, Game Awards GOTY winner week)

  • PS4: 500
  • XB1: 200

Death Stranding (week 6): 3100

Super Mario Odyssey: 5300

Smash Ultimate: 19,100

Gears 5 (week 14): 1700

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 21,400

Is Luigi's Mansion 3 selling really well in this December?

JFO has an awesome leg so far while Death Stranding struggles. Smash Ultimate and MK8D legs are truly insane.   



LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Is Luigi's Mansion 3 selling really well in this December?

JFO has an awesome leg so far while Death Stranding struggles. Smash Ultimate and MK8D legs are truly insane.   

I'll be sure to check all the recent major Switch releases next time around. LM3 hasn't been on sale yet, but I have no doubt it's still selling at least 10k per week.

And now that I think about it, Fallen Order might have similar legs to Modern Warfare. I'll check that too to see which is on top of the non-Switch heap, at least in terms of legs.

The one I'm most surprised about is Gears 5. Game Pass subs aren't eating its sales as much as I thought they would.



Found a workaround for the titles missing from the database.

week ending 12-21

splatoon 2 5000
super mario odyssey 12800
botw 14700
cod ps4 21600
cod xb 20600
fallen order ps 45800
fo xb 38900
fo xbone s bndl 4600
fo xbone x bndl 2700
smash 32300
mk8d 40600
sekiro ps 900
sekiro xb 300
re2 ps 600
re2 xb 300
astral chain 1500
division 2 ps 1400 (@ ~$15)
division 2 xb 1100 (@ ~$15)
dq11 s 1100

Forgot to check Luigi's Mansion again...



Mr_Destiny said:

Found a workaround for the titles missing from the database.

week ending 12-21

splatoon 2 5000
super mario odyssey 12800
botw 14700
cod ps4 21600
cod xb 20600
fallen order ps 45800
fo xb 38900
fo xbone s bndl 4600
fo xbone x bndl 2700
smash 32300
mk8d 40600
sekiro ps 900
sekiro xb 300
re2 ps 600
re2 xb 300
astral chain 1500
division 2 ps 1400 (@ ~$15)
division 2 xb 1100 (@ ~$15)
dq11 s 1100

Forgot to check Luigi's Mansion again...

Damn, JFO is looking really great with that monstrous sales. Perhaps it may have a shot at taking the number one spot in December NPD.  Benji also tweets something similar about it.

 

MK8 and Smash Bros also may have a shot at placing in the top 10. 

My prediction for the NPD December's top 10

1.Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order
2.Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
3.Pokémon Sword
4.Madden NFL 20
5.Mario Kart 8
6.Luigi’s Mansion 3
7.NBA 2K20
8.Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
9.Pokemon Shield
10.
Just Dance 2020



Those Fallen Order numbers are unreal.  It is selling about twice as much as Call of Duty!