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Predict Pokémon Sword/Shield's End of 2019 Shipment Total

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Predict Pokemon Sword/Shield's End of 2019 Shipment Total

Over 16 Million 179 19.74%
 
15-16 Million 54 5.95%
 
14-15 Million 70 7.72%
 
13-14 Million 72 7.94%
 
12-13 Million 97 10.69%
 
11-12 Million 103 11.36%
 
10-11 Million 103 11.36%
 
9-10 Million 82 9.04%
 
8-9 Million 31 3.42%
 
Less Than 8 Million 116 12.79%
 
Total:907

Going conservative with this one: 13-14 million.



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Probably around the 15 million mark, but I still think there are too much bs gimmicks in this pokémon. Although the same can be said of most recent pokémon games. Z moves, mega evolutions and this time its dyna- of megamaxing. If they want to make the game more complex, they should really do so by making the (kind a dated) core gameplay more complex.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

p0isonparadise said:
What's wrong with the people who voted less than 8 million?

Letting their hate for the game blind them from the facts. I hate the game as well but the reality is even Let's Go did better than that.



Over 16 easily....The previous pair got 10 millions. This time we have :

- Around 1,5x more installed base
- A new Switch model to start Q3 2019
- These Pokemons are a bigger and more serious episode



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Pokémon games are usually the most frontloaded of all Nintendo games. So I'm going with 13-14 million.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


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Here are launch quarter shipments for Pokemon games ever since they started doing worldwide launches.

X/Y-11.61
OR/AS-9.35
S/M-14.69
US/UM-7.17
Let's Go-10.00

I'm guessing 12-14 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I'm curious if Pokemon will push the Switch past the Xbox One in sales by the end of 2019. Stretch goal for sure, but it doesn't feel impossible.



Jumpin said:
Interesting the number of people who think Let's Go is a bigger brand than the mainline Pokemon.

While I would not really say better or bigger (personally Let's GO is not super designed for my Pokemon playstyle preferences, though that is partially the fault of Kanto itself), I do think that a combination of A: The long bubbling issues in the fandom, which had been brewing since at the latest Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby (with the Battle Frontier's handling) if not XY, and built up over time from there to culminate in Dexit, and B: The first Pokemon game rush might lead to lower sales. 

Look I don't agree with the entirety of the build up of rage: I actually really like Sun and Moon, but Pokemon has not done the best at handling the post Dexit fallout. It almost reminds me of Fallout 76 and Bethesda, except that I can safely assume that Sword and Shield will not run like a Corgi with a hat of chocolate blinding him.

Sword and Shield will work, and not 'just work', and I do see Pokemon making money back and then some. But I can easily see a scenario in which there is a notable sales gap, perhaps 500,000 to a million, that can be taken as being the fault of 'Dexit'. Might not seem like much, but that would be noticed by the corporate heads.

Dream scenario in my end is Nintendo basically forcing Pokemon off the yearly cycle and forcing better fan-developer communication response in later games.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

KrspaceT said:
Jumpin said:
Interesting the number of people who think Let's Go is a bigger brand than the mainline Pokemon.

While I would not really say better or bigger (personally Let's GO is not super designed for my Pokemon playstyle preferences, though that is partially the fault of Kanto itself), I do think that a combination of A: The long bubbling issues in the fandom, which had been brewing since at the latest Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby (with the Battle Frontier's handling) if not XY, and built up over time from there to culminate in Dexit, and B: The first Pokemon game rush might lead to lower sales. 

Look I don't agree with the entirety of the build up of rage: I actually really like Sun and Moon, but Pokemon has not done the best at handling the post Dexit fallout. It almost reminds me of Fallout 76 and Bethesda, except that I can safely assume that Sword and Shield will not run like a Corgi with a hat of chocolate blinding him.

Sword and Shield will work, and not 'just work', and I do see Pokemon making money back and then some. But I can easily see a scenario in which there is a notable sales gap, perhaps 500,000 to a million, that can be taken as being the fault of 'Dexit'. Might not seem like much, but that would be noticed by the corporate heads.

Dream scenario in my end is Nintendo basically forcing Pokemon off the yearly cycle and forcing better fan-developer communication response in later games.

Truthfully, only some hardcore gamers care about the Pokédex “issue”. The real question is, how many people that care about the dex were going to buy the game in the first place? I can’t imagine that being a large number. 500k is wayyy to much. Is the super hardcore fan base, someone that would care about the dex, even that big?



MasonADC said:
KrspaceT said:

While I would not really say better or bigger (personally Let's GO is not super designed for my Pokemon playstyle preferences, though that is partially the fault of Kanto itself), I do think that a combination of A: The long bubbling issues in the fandom, which had been brewing since at the latest Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby (with the Battle Frontier's handling) if not XY, and built up over time from there to culminate in Dexit, and B: The first Pokemon game rush might lead to lower sales. 

Look I don't agree with the entirety of the build up of rage: I actually really like Sun and Moon, but Pokemon has not done the best at handling the post Dexit fallout. It almost reminds me of Fallout 76 and Bethesda, except that I can safely assume that Sword and Shield will not run like a Corgi with a hat of chocolate blinding him.

Sword and Shield will work, and not 'just work', and I do see Pokemon making money back and then some. But I can easily see a scenario in which there is a notable sales gap, perhaps 500,000 to a million, that can be taken as being the fault of 'Dexit'. Might not seem like much, but that would be noticed by the corporate heads.

Dream scenario in my end is Nintendo basically forcing Pokemon off the yearly cycle and forcing better fan-developer communication response in later games.

Truthfully, only some hardcore gamers care about the Pokédex “issue”. The real question is, how many people that care about the dex were going to buy the game in the first place? I can’t imagine that being a large number. 500k is wayyy to much. Is the super hardcore fan base, someone that would care about the dex, even that big?

Hardcore isn't the only issue: you seem to be underestimating the connection people have with Pokemon as a species. The series has spent 20 years+ telling people to value each and every Pokemon, and that isn't just the popular ones. 

From memes about top percentage Ratattas to the odd cult following Stunfisk has, from the lewd lovers of human mons to the ones who always want a Dunsparce evolution the fandom takes on many forms for many mons, often absent of competitive value. 

There is also how Game Freak has handled the issues: Game Freak has approached the issue as being related to graphics, and that has drawn out an issue in the series that usually gets sidetracked. 

For more information look up the move double kick, or 'that tree'. 

Now I am not unaware that many moves, like Razor Leaf and Earth Power, are better looking, but because Game Freak brought up graphics that in turn led to people getting on them about graphics that usually don't. 

Also I just want to remind people that 'hardcore' aren't as much a minority as one might think. I mean hardcore were probably the ones who abstained hardest from Battlefront 2/V and quite possibly Fallout 76, and look how those turned out. 

I retain the '500,000 to a million' possibility from that, and then Nintendo going to Game Freak and going 'Fix your shite', or even just going 'oops, bad call on our end, let's change these things'.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?