Ill answer the question at the end of the month

Looks like Nintendo underestimated their forecast.

No, but at least their forecast is realistic this year and they'll almost certainly hit 18 million for the full 12 months.

Unlike last year where they were tripping balls and thought they could go most of the year with no big releases and hit 20 million.

It's a great value proposition if you're a parent wanting to buy a handheld for your kid(s), a 3DS owner who hasn't upgraded yet because the base model is too expensive and not portable enough, or don't really care about docked play.

Depending on how strong the Switch's momentum is from Switch Lite/Dragon Quest to Pokemon, then it may have a shot.

This is my guess:

FY2019 Q1 : 2,13 M

FY2019 Q2 : 3,5 M

FY2019 Q3 : 10,5 M

Total at this point would be 16,13 M

IIRC, FY2018 Q3 was 10M and it was overshipped.
And for FY2019 Q4 I expect to be strong, around 3-3.5M